Iceland are 19/5 to condemn England to one of the most humiliating eliminations from a major tournament in their history.
England’s opponents are the smallest nation to ever appear on this stage and defeat would surely bring down the curtain on Roy Hodgson’s reign, while victory would set up a quarter-final against hosts France.
England are 13/25 to win in 90 minutes but only managed one win during the group stage despite dominating all three matches against defensive teams.
Tonight’s match could follow a similar story with Iceland - the lowest ranked side remaining at 34th on the FIFA ladder - likely to sit deep and look to hit England on the counter attack.
Iceland have taken an average of just 6.7 shots per match at the tournament so far – the third fewest after N Ireland (4.3) and Sweden (5.0) – while England’s 19.3 is the highest of any side.
At the other end of the pitch, the 16.7 shots allowed by Iceland per match is the second highest after Slovakia’s 16.8. This includes 6.7 shots on target – the joint-highest with Russia. Meanwhile England’s average of 5.0 faced per match is the second lowest after Germany’s 4.5.
All that suggests a comfortable win for England if they can be more ruthless and get their noses in front early. They are 5/1 to win by three goals or more but are yet to score in the first half and 7/5 is available for another goalless opening 45 minutes.
England fans will be desperate to avoid penalties given the national team’s record in shootouts and Iceland are 15/1 to condemn the Three Lions to a familiar method of elimination.