After Leicester City’s amazing Premier League success last season, normal order appears to have been restored this season, with the top six teams in the table as expected at present.
Chelsea lead the way, having amassed 34 points from their opening 14 games, and, as current favourites for the tile, they look the club most likely to qualify for the Champions League this season.
Antonio Conte has taken to English football like a duck to water, and eight consecutive victories have made the London side the pacesetters, despite being beaten at home by Liverpool and away at Arsenal in September.
Chelsea are scoring goals, notching 32 in their 14 matches, with the form of Diego Costa and Eden Hazard making them close to being a banker when it comes to the top four spots this term.
The Blues are already seven points better off than Tottenham Hotspur, who currently occupy fifth place, and canconcentrate on the Premier League without the distraction of European football, something could make the difference come the end of the season.
Will Liverpool benefit from not being in Europe?
The irony of sides not qualifying for the Champions League in any given season is that it can give them a better chance of qualifying for it the following season. That certainly seemed to be the case with Leicester City last term, who didn’t just qualify for the Champions League, but came from nowhere to win the Premier League.
Liverpool, who finished eighth last season, missing qualification for the Europa League third qualifying round by one place, can prepare forPremier League gamesuninterrupted this season, although theyhave reached the semi-finals of the EFL Cup.
Jürgen Klopp knows his Liverpool side have a great chance of winning a maiden Premier League title, having accumulated 30 points from the 14 games they’ve played. However, they look less likely to last the pace than Chelsea.
That’s because their defending this season has been poor, especially on the road. Liverpool have shipped 14 goals in eight away games, conceding four at Bournemouth last weekendafter leading 2-0 and 3-1 to eventually lose 4-3, putting a dent in their title prospects and potentially their Champions League prospects too.
Klopp has his team to playing a style of football that involves moving the ball at pace and winning possession high up the pitch. However, the Liverpool squad does not have strength in depth, and it was noticeable the defeat at the Vitality Stadium came without Philippe Coutinho, Adam Lallana and Joël Matip in the starting lineup.
Liverpool don’t have a lot of defensive cover, with midfielder Lucas Leiva operating as a centre-half against the Cherries. And while James Milner, another midfielder, might be a good offensive left-back, he’s not as solid a defender as Nathaniel Clyne on the other side of the pitch.
This season, the Reds have obtained victory, such as the 4-2 triumph over Crystal Palace, by simply outscoring the opposition,but that could cost them the Premier League, as being defensively open rarelyleads to winning titles.
Are Manchester City Champions League bankers?
Manchester City were the horse to back before the Premier League season had started. Pep Guardiola arrived at the Etihad after enormously successful spells with Barcelona and Bayern Munich. Indeed, they were being spoken about as potential Champions League winners, and the Citizens looked like they might be able to reach such lofty heights as they began the season with ten consecutive victories in all competitions.
However, it was a relatively easy start for Guardiola’s men and their win ratio has dropped significantly since, with four wins in the following 13 matches, their defence once again exposed in the 3-1 home reverse against Chelsea last weekend, where City were sucker-punched on the counter-attack.
According to the latest odds, Manchester City are still expected to land a spot in the top four this season, but they are only three points better off than Tottenham in fifth, who beat them 2-0 at White Hart Lane earlier in the season. However, while Spurs were knocked out of the Champions League in the group stages, they’ve qualified for the Europa League, so they don’t hold any advantage over City when it comes to fixtures.
While City are still likely to challenge for the title, Sergio Agüero’s discipline is becoming an issue, with the Argentine having already been banned for a total of seven domestic matches for incidentsagainst West Ham United and Chelsea.
The jury is also out on Guardiola’s most controversial signing, Claudio Bravo, who has yet to show he’s a capable shot-stopper, despite having good ball control, which is why Pep signed him.
With injury again likely to deprive Manchester City ofcaptain Vincent Kompany for much of the season,it remains to be seen whether the club will qualify for the Champions League as comfortably as expected.
It’s Gunner be another top-four finish for Arsène
Arsenal might be the Premier League bridesmaid these days, but the bottom line is that the Gunners never finish outside the top four. The London side always find a way to qualify for the Champions League, even if it’s in fourth spot, which means qualification for a play-off for the Champions League group stage.
So far, so good for Arsenal, despite them effectively gifting Liverpool an opening day win that be costly come the end of the season. After all, a victory in that match would mean they would now top the Premier League, rather than sitting three points behind Chelsea.
We all know how it goes with the Gunners though. When they’re good, they look like world-beaters, but a slip-up is always around the corner, even though Arsène Wenger took steps toshore up his defence in the summer by recruiting Shkrodan Mustafi to play alongside the impressive Laurent Koscielny.
Since losing to Liverpool, Arsenal haven’t experienced defeat in the Premier League, winning four and drawing two matches at the Emirates, and winning five and drawing two on the road.
There’s a misconception that Arsenal remain weak in defence, but their defensive statistics are among the best in the division, and Héctor Bellerín is soon expected to return to the right-back slot after injury. The Gunners also have plenty of cover in the midfield and in attack, with Alexis Sánchez in sparkling form.
Can Spurs secure Champions League football again?
Although they finished third last season, Tottenham were effectively the main challengers to Leicester City in the Premier League. Spurs were strongly throughout the season, until they fell away at the end and were overhauled by neighbours Arsenal, despite the Gunners long having dropped out of the title race.
This season, Mauricio Pochettino has had to contend with the Champions League, and it’s not gone well, with a Spurs squad seemingly short of quality, experience and depth unable to knocked out at the group stage with a match to spare.
It hasn’t helped that Toby Alderweireld has been sidelined with injury; with the Belgian just about on his way back to full fitness, Pochettino will be delighted to reunite him and Jan Vertonghen in the heart of the Tottenham defence.
Spurs have more reasons to be optimistic they can edge Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal or Chelseaout of the top four. Harry Kane is back from injury and scoring goals, with Heung-Min Son and Dele Alli his foils, and Christian Eriksen is playing his way into form with the festive fixtures approaching.In the engine room, Victor Wanyama and Moussa Dembéléare a compact unit who can break up play and start attacks.
Spurs outplayed Chelsea in the first half of their recent London derby at Stamford Bridge, taking the lead through Eriksen, only for the Blues to level before the break and run out 2-1 winners.
Are Manchester United going to miss out?
So, we have Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur sitting in the top five positions. Below them? Manchester United; José Mourinho wouldn’t have envisaged his side being only one point better off than West Bromwich Albion at this stage of the Premier League campaign.
Manchester United have largely underwhelmed this season, winning just won two of their seven Premier League matches at Old Trafford. They have the worst home win ratio in the Premier League apart from Swansea City; the Red Devils have drawn on four occasions and they lost the derby against Manchester City.
Mourinho claims his team have been unlucky this season, that their performances haven’t been adequately reflected by their results. However, his side simply isn’t scoring enough goals to challenge for Champions League qualification, let alone the Premier League title.
At the time of writing, Manchester United are nine points behind Manchester City, and appears to lack cohesion and quality, despite having the world’s most expensive player in Paul Pogba and Zlatan Ibrahimović’s predatory instincts seemingly resisting the passage of time.
However, Anthony Martial has blown hot and cold this season, while Marcus Rashford has been in and out of the team after starting his first team career so brightly under Louis van Gaal last season. Juan Mata doesn’t seem to have the complete backing of Mourinho,while Morgan Schneiderlin and Bastian Schweinsteiger and been frozen out by the Portuguese.
Defensively, Manchester United are at sixes and sevens. Eric Bailly started well, but was fading before getting injured against Chelsea in October. Phil Jones and Marcos Rojo are currently the odd couple making up the central defence, and Mourinho should perhaps consider himself a lucky one because he has David de Gea between the sticks to save his team’s blushes.
It seems increasingly clear Wayne Rooney is no longer fit enough or good enough to be a starter for Manchester United, and Mourinho is slowly phasing the forward out, starting him only in EFL Cup and Europa League matches. Ironically, the latter could be the Red Devils’ best chance of qualifying for next season’s Champions League.
United have qualified for the last 32 of the competition, and Mourinho might be forced to prioritise the Europa League if it gets to the stage where the chances of top-four Premier League finish are looking remote.
Our predicted top four this season
We expect Tottenham Hotspur to be a top-four Premier League team this season. While they’ve had a November wobble, they remain a side with a strong backbone providing Toby Alderweireld and Jan Vertonghen stay fit.
It’s also hard to see Chelsea missing out, and Arsenal are experienced operators when it comes to the top four of the Premier League, and Wenger now has the strongest squad he’s had for many seasons.
That leaves Liverpool, Manchester City and Manchester United. The latter look like they have too much work to do already to land a place in the top four, especially as they continue to fall short in terms of scoring goals.
Liverpool could be found out if Coutinho is an absent for any length of time; it was noticeable they were short of attacking ideas without their Brazilian playmaker at Bournemouth, despite scoring three goals.
Manchester City are a great attacking team, but share Liverpool’s defensive frailties; Pep Guardiola’s insistence on playing a high line and Claudio Bravo combined could yet see them teetering on the brink of Europa League football next season.
However, we’re going backing City to edge out Liverpool, leaving Klopp scratching his head as to what’s required to get the Reds back into the Champions League. On too many occasions this season, the Merseysiders have looked naïve, while they struggle to break down sides that sit back, such as Manchester United at homeearlier in the season.
