The Super Cup takes place this Wednesday in Tallinn. Thanks to Spanish success in the Europa League and Champions League, we have the rather surreal prospect of a Madrid derby held over 2,300 miles (by car) away from the Spanish capital.
Real Madrid are in transition in this Ronaldo-in-Turin world. Julen Lopetegui has had a quiet window by their standards, with no superstar arriving to replace the Portuguese forward. Thibaut Courtois was the most notable acquisition, but that deal saw midfielder Mateo Kovacic depart on loan.
Los Blancos were underwhelming domestically last term, finishing 17 points off Barcelona. Yet another Champions League more than made up for that failure, though.
The playing staff might not be drastically different, but there’s a degree of uncertainty around the club in the absence of Ronaldo and Zinedine Zidane.
Atletico have had a solid summer thus far. Thomas Lemar and Gelson Martins give Diego Simeone extra options in the final third, and they crucially retained the services of World Cup winner Antoine Griezmann.
They had the best defensive record in La Liga last season, conceding just 22 goals. Pair that with a reinforced frontline and Atletico will be a threat on all fronts this term.
Unlike Atletico, Real’s defence was fallible last season. They conceded 44 league goals, which was even more than Espanyol, who finished down in 11th.
Atletico, however, scored just 58 in the league, fewer than several bottom-half sides. These two teams have been incredibly close for several seasons, but they get their results in such contrasting ways.
Lopetegui’s side to score over 1.5 is good value at 8/5. A period of adaptation after Ronaldo is likely, but they still have plenty of firepower. This could be when we finally see Gareth Bale take charge on a regular basis.
He has done it in big matches on countless occasions before. The Welshman is at 21/4 to open the scoring.
Atletico to score under 1.5 at 4/11 is a very good price. If the noisiest neighbours in world football are to be successful in Estonia this week, it won’t be a high-scoring affair, it will be on the back of a solid defensive effort and opportunism in the final third.
These derbies have a familiar pattern. Real dominate the ball, Atletico sit deep and spring counter attacks with long passes towards their front two.
Diego Costa has a big role to play occupying the central defenders. The Costa versus Ramos duel is bound to flair up during the 90 minutes, both are a good bet to get carded.
Real Madrid’s midfielders, particularly Casemiro, could be a good price to pick up a card as well as he’s likely to be left isolated during spells of prolonged Real possession.
Real Madrid just edge the full-time betting at 31/20 to Atleti’s 2/1. In addition, the reigning European champions are favoured to lift the trophy at 3/4. After a summer of relative turmoil for the world’s biggest club, Atletico look a good bet to win this one.
We know Simeone’s side will be organised, and they could stifle their local rivals.
Costa to score anytime and Atletico to win at 21/4 looks a really good price ahead of this one. The Spanish international was back to his dominant self at the World Cup after a sluggish start to his second spell in Madrid, he could torment a Real Madrid defence that was vulnerable last season.
Without Ronaldo, it’s a lot less likely the Real forwards bail out any defensive mishaps.
TIP: Diego Costa to score and Atletico to win @ 21/4
PREDICTED SCORE: Atletico Madrid 1-0 Real Madrid (Priced at 8/1 with 888sport)
*Odds subject to change - correct at time of writing*
