Dominic Thiem is 37/10 to end Rafael Nadal’s hopes of a 10th French Open crown when they meet in the semi-finals at Roland Garros on Friday.
The Austrian sixth seed claimed the biggest win of his career as he beat defending champion Novak Djokovic 7-6 (7/5) 6-3 6-0.
It was a remarkable turnaround from Thiem’s last meeting with Djokovic in Rome three weeks ago, when, having condemned Nadal to his only loss on clay this year, the world number seven managed just a single game.
Thiem, who lost to Djokovic in the semi-final here last year, won just seven games when he last met Nadal at this venue in 2014 but we expect the Spaniard will be given a much sterner test this time.
The 23-year-old, who is quoted 15/2 for the title, is 21/10 to win the first set and 23/2 to take the match in four sets.
He said: “It's great for me to be in the semi-finals again, to defend that. And of course, I think on Friday is the toughest opponent ever here in Roland Garros.
“It’s going to be the fourth match against him in five or six weeks. Not really any big secrets. He’s again in his best shape so it’s going to be the toughest match you can imagine.”
Nadal moved into a 10th French Open semi-final after Pablo Carreno Busta retired with an abdominal problem trailing 6-2 2-0.
The Spaniard, who has gone on to lift the trophy the other nine times he has made the last four, has lost just 22 games in five matches so far.
He remains the favourite at 11/25 with odds of 21/100 for him to advance to yet another final.
Nadal is 27/10 to progress in four sets and 51/10 to clinch a decider with odds of 49/20 on offer for over 43.5 games in the match.
He said: “I’m playing well, I’m moving ahead. Thiem is a tough player, I hope I won’t lose!
“I won in Barcelona and Madrid but I lost to him in Rome. If I play well I hope I will be able to book my spot in the final.”