Which international sharp-shooter is going to out-fire his rivals this summer and claim the Golden Boot?
It’s a much coveted prize, one that has previously been won by some of the continent’s most renowned practitioners of putting the ball into the onion bag. The temptation therefore is to pick out a striker who is equally as renowned today.
Naturally enough, you’ll be right to follow this logic, and that’s because by and large, this is not an award historically won by unknowns or surprise packages.
But before you open up our Euro 2024 top scorer odds and select either Kylian Mbappe or Harry Kane it’s worth arming yourself with as much information as possible, and that includes a crucial detail that must always be factored in.
Because when trying to identify this summer’s most lethal hit-man, it’s not only the player that matters, but the nation he plays for.
Previous Winners
What do Savo Milosevic and Cristiano Ronaldo have in common?
The answer is that since the Euros expanded its format in 1996 these are the only two players who have won a Golden Boot despite their country not reaching at least the semi-final.
In 2000, the former Aston Villa frontman shared the honours with Patrick Kluivert, mainly by bagging a hatful in the group stage. He also netted Yugoslavia’s consolation as they were walloped 6-1 straight after by Holland.
Two decades later, CR7’s Portugal scraped through the group stage by finishing as one of the highest ranked third-place teams. They were promptly knocked out by Belgium.
By then though, Ronaldo has already worked his charms, scoring five in three group games.
This odd couple aside however, we tend to find Golden Boot winners propel their countries to glory or within sight of it, an entirely obvious conclusion no matter which way you look at it.
Top Goalscorer - Harry Kane
Having a prolific forward in your ranks, regularly scoring, is a sure-fire way to go deep in a tournament.
From the player’s perspective, the more games they are involved in, the greater chance they have of racking up four or five overall.
This is the benchmark incidentally that probably needs to be met. The average number of goals securing a Golden Boot in the last 30 years is 4.7.
In 2016, Antoine Griezmann notched six, the highest return since his fellow countryman Michel Platini scored a remarkable nine in 1984.
In between there were a number of notable recipients of the award, Marco Van Basten and Alan Shearer each scoring five pre-Millennium.
Spain’s David Villa and Fernando Torres are also on the honours roll, both in unstoppable form as La Roja won back-to-back Euros in their tiki-taka prime.
Mbappe vs Kane
It’s really no surprise to learn that France’s megastar and England’s record goal-scorer are favourites for the Golden Boot this time out, with only a smidgeon between them in the betting, just like there is little separating their respective nations in the Euro 2024 odds.
Real Madrid-bound post-Euros, Mbappe out-scored everybody else at the World Cup in Qatar and all told boasts 12 goals in 16 major tournament games for France.
This season, for PSG, he has converted 43 goals in 45 outings across all comps, and there is also the not insignificant detail of the 25-year-old being one of the most explosive and brilliant talents of the modern era.
Furthermore, Les Bleus have every chance of going all the way, Didier Deschamps’ side reaching the last two World Cup finals.
As for Kane, his phenomenal and record-breaking haul in the Bundesliga this term has made headlines across the continent. In his inaugural season with Bayern Munich, he has scored every 87 minutes and he is equally as prolific and important for England.
The World Cup Golden Boot winner of 2018 has converted nine in his eight starts for the Three Lions post-Qatar.
Picking either of these stars is a sensible shout. As for who, well that amounts to a coin-flip.
Other Contenders
Looking beyond this incredible pair, strikers are always far preferable to wide-men or attacking midfielders.
This discounts Jude Bellingham and Bukayo Saka, in spite of their rich harvest of goals for Real Madrid and Arsenal respectively during this campaign.
Romelu Lukaku stands out at 20/1, a forward more than capable of blasting two or three prior to the knock-outs as Belgium face winnable fare in Romania and Slovakia.
Both Lukaku and the Red Devils seem to be fading forces but a reminder of their sizable attributes is not beyond them.
Further down the betting Alvario Morata is 25/1 for good reason, the 31-year-old no longer a formidable presence on the international stage. He does however front a Spain outfit who have the ways and means to replicate their successes in 2008 and 2012.
Like Lukaku, a final swansong is perfectly plausible.
Or what about Kai Havertz, who has recently been stationed front and top for both club and country. A consistent run of goals for the Gunners means his 33/1 represents tremendous value.
*Credit for the main photo belongs to Alamy*
