This is the final captaincy article of the season, and it should be one of the more straightforward decisions depending on your strategy.

Of course, I’ve covered the players likely to bring home the fantasy football points. At the same time, I’ve also stuck a couple of differentials to whet your appetite should you fancy a final day flutter on an outsider.

FPL Captain Picks GW38:

Fantasy Premier League Captain Picks

Heung-Min Son

The standout pick of the final day, in my opinion. Spurs still have it all to play for at Carrow Road, knowing that only a win will guarantee Champions League football for next season. 

But the side will not have too many worries. Their season-ending game is against a Norwich side that has been terrible defensively throughout 2021/22.

The Canaries are bottom for xG conceded over the season, with only Southampton worse over the last six. But worryingly, they have underperformed this data (13.6), conceding 16 goals. 

Son has been incredible this month with four goals and two assists, so it is no surprise that he has the second-highest predicted points for Sunday.

The Spurs star could even pip Mo Salah for the Golden Boot with a better than 1 in 2 chance (55%) of scoring.

Kevin de Bruyne

The City attack is unstoppable at the moment! Pep’s men were tasked with chasing down a large goal difference deficit to catch Liverpool.

Following a flurry of high-scoring matches, 24 in just six games, Manchester City have surpassed their rivals and put themselves in pole position for the title in just six games. 
 
On recent form, De Bruyne is undroppable, and along with the likes of Ederson and Aymeric Laporte, the Belgian will be one of the first names on the team sheet this weekend.

KDB has always been considered a provider, but he has emerged as a real scoring threat this season, with 15 Premier League goals already, his best tally.

In game week 36, his career-high four-goal haul came close to breaking FPL points records for a single round. And if you followed my advice and gave him the armband, you’re very welcome!

FPL Points Predictor Tool

This weekend, Aston Villa arrive at The Etihad with nothing more than pride to play for, although Steven Gerrard would love to have a hand in delivering the title to Liverpool.

However, the Villains will struggle to contain City, who are given a 67 per cent chance of taking three points. The Claret and Blues have underperformed their midtable defensive data conceding eight goals in their last six matches.

Manchester City will want this done early, and I expect Guardiola to have his side focused from the very first minute, with only a win guaranteeing them the title. 

De Bruyne has been one of the most consistent performers of 2022 and having amassed 125-points, he sits just behind Heung-Min Son (144) and Harry Kane (131) for returns this calendar year.

He goes into this final game week with a 58 per cent chance of any return, and the fourth-highest predicted points.

Ivan Toney

Brentford have been one of the in-form sides, and they will be hoping to finish on a high, breaking into the Top 10.

The Bees end their first season in the Premier League as they started, in front of their supporters, and a similar outcome to the 2-0 opening day victory over Arsenal would be very much welcomed. 

Brentford have relatively good attacking numbers, with ten goals over the last month, which is Top 6 data. But the appeal of Ivan Toney, a differential captain, comes from the quality, or lack of, in their opponents Leeds.

The visitors have some of the worst defensive numbers in the league (15th) over the last six, and they will be missing Stuart Dallas and Luke Ayling from their backline.

Toney is expected to shine against a defence that has struggled to cope physically all season. The striker has been one of the main benefactors since the arrival of Christian Eriksen, with the Lilywhites particularly vulnerable from the dead-ball.

Toney is ranked third for expected points with a massive (51%) for a goal and (61%) chance of returning.

Sadio Mane or Luis Diaz

Liverpool will fight until the final whistle on Sunday, hoping that Manchester City will somehow slip up against Villa.

Realistically, only a win will give The Reds a chance with their rivals occupying top spot with a better goal difference (+6) and one extra point. 

While the Liverpool attack may have slowed a little lately, they are still the second-best in the league over their last six games, and the Reds will be looking to capitalise against a Wolves side that have collapsed recently.

The visitors have some of the worst defensive data during this end of season run-in with Bottom Three xG conceded and a huge 13 goals against from six matches. This should be an excellent game for Liverpool’s attacking assets.

But the problem ahead of Sunday, assuming that Mohamed Salah doesn’t start, is which forward to pick.

The Egyptian King was always given the nod as he had spot-kick responsibilities; however, we have no identifiable penalty taker in his absence and the probable omission of Fabinho and James Milner.

Therefore, my favourite picks are either Mane or Diaz, with the latter having slightly better-attacking data from recent games with higher numbers on ten key attacking metrics.

The Columbian has scored more FPL points (35 -v- 33), has a higher xGI and more penalty area touches than his teammate, but Mane is priced at £11.8m because he is one of the best inside forwards in world football. 

A captaincy on either of them has a huge points ceiling and could be a lot of fun; plus, most importantly, they are very differential.

Mane is given a 58 per cent chance of any return combined with 40 per cent for a goal. Meanwhile, Diaz is only fractionally lower at 50 and 33 per cent.

The predicted data points to Mane, but the form suggests Diaz, and I’m betting there won’t be much between the two this weekend. So, I will leave the choice to you.


Best FPL Tips For Gameweek 37:


FIRST PUBLISHED: 11th August 2021

About the Author
By
Ben Dinnery Football Expert

Ben Dinnery is the founder of Premier Injuries, a website used to track and record injury data for the British Premier League.

Described by The Telegraph as the “country’s leading data injury analyst,” Ben provides statistic insight and data to a host of broadsheet outlets and some of the world’s leading media organisations.

A regular contributor on talkSPORT radio and BBC Radio 5 Live, Ben’s data is published globally through his work with Sky Sports, NBC Sports and ESPN plus a host of other leading media broadcasters.