Sam Cox (@SamRCox_) makes 10 FPL player predictions as we approach the start of the 2022/23 Fantasy Premier League season...
The 2022-23 Premier League season is almost upon us, which means football fans all over the world are searching for the best FPL tips.
Along with delving into online betting to place a few outright wagers, setting up and planning your Fantasy Premier League team is a part of the preseason process for supporters on every continent.
With a mix of hunch and statistical backing, we’ve made 10 bold FPL predictions for 2022-23 below.
Raheem Sterling scores 20 goals
Raheem Sterling was limited to just 23 Premier League starts last term. He still delivered 13 goals and five assists, taking the former Liverpool man to five consecutive league campaigns with double figures in goals scored.
The Romelu Lukaku experiment didn’t work out for Chelsea, but Sterling is a seamless fit alongside Kai Havertz and Mason Mount.
Sterling can stretch the play like Timo Werner, though without the crisis of confidence the German has suffered at Stamford Bridge. Watch for Sterling to put in a career-best goal scoring season.
Jadon Sancho finishes top five in midfielder points
Jadon Sancho’s first campaign with Manchester United was a mess. Used out of position and in a team mired by dysfunction, Sancho scored just 91 FPL points.
Erik ten Hag has already made it clear the right flank belongs to Sancho. At a mere £7.5 million, he’s among the best Manchester United FPL picks.
Sancho is set up to flourish in 2022-23. He might not get back to quite the levels of production we saw in 2018-19 and 2019-20, but he’s a serious candidate to record a double-double for the campaign.
Crystal Palace defenders are the best value picks
Patrick Vieira’s team played some scintillating football last season, which at times overshadowed their defence.
Only the top five recorded more clean sheets in 2021-22 than the Eagles, and their expected goals against of 41 was better than everyone except the top four.
While the season starts with a tough run, including Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City in their first four games, Palace’s defenders will be a bargain option before long.
Marc Guehi, Tyrick Mitchell, Joachim Andersen and Nathaniel Clyne are all priced at just £4.5 million.
Aleksandar Mitrovic doesn’t reach triple figures
FPL managers talked themselves into Aleksandar Mitrović in 2018-19 and 2020-21. Don’t make the same mistake in 2022-23.
Yes, the Serbian scored 43 in 44 Championship starts last season. Yes, he’s a tempter of a differential pick at £6.5 million.
More importantly, though, we’ve got sustained evidence that Mitrovic isn’t a productive player in the Premier League. He scored 14 goals in 64 matches across 2018-19 and 2020-21, combining for 197 points.
We think Fulham ultimately replace Mitrovic at some point this season, and he doesn’t even reach 100 FPL points.
Eriksen scores more points per match than Fernandes
Bruno Fernandes is £3.5 million more expensive than Christian Eriksen.
The Portuguese is going to be ahead of the Dane in the pecking order, but don’t be surprised to see Erik ten Hag start the pair together with Paul Pogba no longer at the club and no midfield signing imminent.
Eriksen recorded 3.9 points per game last season in a so-so Brentford team. Fernandes was at 4.2. The duo were tied in non-penalty expected goals plus expected assists per 90 in the Premier League in 2021-22, too.
We’re expecting Eriksen to have a big role at Old Trafford – he can be at least as productive as Fernandes on a points per match basis.
Calvert-Lewin outscores Richarlison
With Richarlison competing against Dejan Kulusevski for minutes in the front three, this isn’t the boldest of predictions, but the Brazilian had 0.4 more points than Dominic Calvert-Lewin per game last season, and he’s on a much stronger team in 2022-23.
While Richarlison has been reliable for 120+ points throughout his Premier League career, Calvert-Lewin got into the 160s in 2020-21.
Everton’s attack will be funnelled to the England international if he stays fit – we like his chances to surpass Richarlison’s total.
Haaland wins the Golden Boot
Erling Haaland has played 70.6 90s over the last three league seasons. He’s scored 78 goals in those matches.
Despite missing considerable time through injury, the Norwegian scored 22 Bundesliga goals last term. He will now be leading the line in Pep Guardiola’s chance creation machine.
No Premier League player has scored more than 23 goals in a season since 2017-18.
Even if Haaland misses eight to 12 matches, he should cruise past that tally and become the first Scandinavian to win the Premier League Golden Boot.
🏆 Man City have won the title in 4 of the last 5 seasons - and Erling Haaland will join this summer.— 888sport (@888sport) May 23, 2022
⚽️ @FabrizioRomano talks about the challenges #MCFC faced to sign Haaland and how he can be Pep Guardiola's crown jewel. https://t.co/di2xYZu0ub
Mbeumo scores 140+ points
A return of 119 points last season was solid from Bryan Mbeumo, even if he was overshadowed by the exploits of Ivan Toney. Brentford split opinion in Premier League predictions, but we’re optimistic on the Bees.
Mbeumo didn’t light up the stat sheet in 2021-22. His seven assists was a solid return, yet the four goals was a bit of a disappointment.
The Frenchman posted nine non-penalty expected goals and 3.6 expected assists. He was ahead of Kai Havertz and Bernardo Silva when those numbers were combined.
Improve on his finishing, and Mbeumo can easily be a double-figure goal scorer with five-plus assists. He’s a candidate to break into the select group of forwards with over 140 points.
Saka breaks 200-point barrier
Only 12 players had a better non-penalty expected goals plus expected assists mark than Bukayo Saka last season. The gifted England international finished with 11 goals and nine assists in FPL, good for 179 points.
There were only five midfielders with more FPL points, and Saka just keeps getting better. He had 114 points in 2554 minutes in 2020-21, adding 65 points in 400 or so more minutes in 2021-22.
His workload is going to stay roughly the same if fully fit, but his underlying numbers show last season was no fluke. Add in a few penalties, and Saka could be in that elite group of 200-point midfielders.
Jesse Lingard ranks in top 30 midfielders
Nottingham Forest’s move for Jesse Lingard has been met with a lot of unfair criticism. Lingard was marginalised at Manchester United last season, but he’s not far removed from a spectacular few months with West Ham.
Lingard scored nine and assisted five in under 1500 minutes two seasons ago. Back in 2017-18, he had 128 points in 1807 minutes.
When given the opportunity, Lingard is a productive FPL player. He’ll be given license to make attacking runs from Forest’s midfield, and could get close to double figures in goals scored with a smattering of assists.
*Credit for all of the photos in this article belongs to AP Photo*
FIRST PUBLISHED: 25th July 2022