Manchester City host Leicester on Monday Night Football. Pep Guardiola’s side are just two victories away from retaining their Premier League crown, though they will be down in second by the time this match kicks off if Liverpool beat Newcastle on Saturday night.
City have won 12 consecutive Premier League matches. Their 2/15 price to win in 888sport’s Premier League odds is understandable, but we are not going to see many people pick that as the value bet here.
Form and winning 17 of 18 home Premier League matches contributes to City’s price. Leicester, however, are no pushover as Arsenal were reminded of last weekend.
The Foxes are playing some great football under Brendan Rodgers, led by Jamie Vardy and his supporting cast of talented offensive-minded midfielders. There’s a threat posed by Leicester, and they could well give City a scare here.
The 21/4 price on Leicester to score over 1.5 goals will get some interest. It might seem ambitious considering City’s defensive record, but Rodgers’ side will be adventurous and look to challenge City.
Vardy’s pace is a constant concern for a defence that plays as high as City, and in James Maddison and Youri Tielemans, they have players in the middle third who can pick him out.
Maddison has created more chances than anyone else in the Premier League this season. His 13/2 price to register an assist looks a good bet.
From Leicester’s midfield to City’s midfield; Guardiola is dealing with a minor injury crisis with Kevin De Bruyne and Fernandinho both set to miss out. Injury crisis is overselling it really, though, as City’s ludicrous squad depth leaves them with an array of options.
Bernardo Silva will likely drop into the midfield trio, opening up space for Leroy Sane or Riyad Mahrez to join Raheem Sterling and Sergio Aguero up front.
Bernardo has been sensational this season, his versatility giving Guardiola vital flexibility. The 9/1 price on the Portuguese international to score and assist is worth consideration.
In the same market, Sterling’s 9/2 price will get plenty of backing. The former Liverpool winger missed out on PFA Player of the Year to Virgil van Dijk, and he’s not in his best form, but he could find a lot of space when Leicester commit men forward.
Rodgers’ teams are always susceptible to runners in behind, which could see Sterling with clear cut chances or the opportunity for City’s trademark cutbacks.
Goals are where the value lies. Both teams to score at 49/50 is a no brainer. Over 4.5 total goals at 39/20 is a hard one to judge, with over 3.5 at Evens probably the more sensible bet.
Leicester will look to take the game to City and could make this a nervy evening for Guardiola’s men if they can score first.
Leicester to avoid defeat at 5/1 will undoubtedly get some backing (especially on Merseyside). Betting against City on this run might not seem like the most sensible idea, but there is definitely upset potential here.
With Rodgers’ natural instincts to attack, however, comes the risk of a thrashing. Early City goal(s) could lead to a heavy home victory, making the handicap -2 at Evens look a very good price.
It’s stating the obvious to mention the significance of the first goal, but it really is huge in this match. Leicester could wreak havoc on the break if they take the lead. The possibility of a slip up as good as vanishes if City open the scoring.
This will be a tense evening at the Etihad Stadium, at least until the first goal goes in. While a home victory is by far the most likely outcome, there may well be a scare or two along the way.
TIP: Both teams to score @ 49/50
PREDICTED SCORE: Manchester City 4-2 Leicester City (28/1 with 888sport)
*Odds subject to change - correct at time of writing*
