The next lot of US Presidential Elections don’t take place until 7 November 2028, and yet, with what should be three more years of the current administration, punters are already sizing up the odds for the next vote.
At the time of writing, Donald Trump’s net approval rating hit -16 per cent, which was an improvement on the first week of December. Even so, 57 per cent disapprove of the lame duck.
This far out, it’s impossible to say who the true frontrunners will be for the two parties, with the conclusion of the November 2026 midterm elections usually triggering the starting pistol for the campaign trails.
Even so, it’s interesting to see who currently stand as the favourites in the 2028 US Presidential Election odds – especially when it comes to the Republican Party.
Who is the Favourite in the 2028 US Presidential Election Odds?
As it stands, the vice-president of the United States, JD Vance, is narrowly ahead in the odds at 9/4, looking like the prime successor to further Trump’s distinct approach to governing the US and the part it’ll play in the world.
Not far behind Vance in the politics odds is who would seem to be his main competitor from the Democratic Party, current California governor Gavin Newsom.
The very outspoken critic of the sitting president is at 7/2 to put the Democrats back in power, and from there, it’s a jump to his closest party competitor.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC), who is currently the U.S. representative for New York's 14th congressional district, became the youngest woman to enter Congress seven years ago. Now 36-years-old, she’s at 9/1 in the odds.
Finally, and before a huge drop off in the odds, it’s Donald Trump Sr. His public musings about being able to get elected a third time and there being workarounds means he’s not counted out at 10/1 as it stands.
JD Vance 2028 US Election Odds (9/4)
It’s extremely common for vice presidents to run for the top seat should their president vacate the spot. With Trump seemingly continuing to hold a lot of Republican support, Vance is the natural successor.
At times, he’s appeared to be an even more bullish and brash version of his boss, particularly when it comes to foreign affairs and the desire to dress down supposed allies in public.
He’s not announced his plans yet, but the 41-year-old certainly looks like the only person Trump would currently give the nod to within the party should the president be willing to give up his seat without going to the public.
Gavin Newsome 2028 US Election Odds (7/2)
With the Democrats scrambling for a selling point after Kamala Harris’ unexpected run for the presidency crashed and burned, Gavin Newsom has emerged as a leading voice.
Primarily, he’s been an anti-Trump voice. Some see him as a foil to Trump who’s unafraid to lock horns with the administration wherever it makes a stand – so, much of the time, on social media.
His satirical angle will certainly help to win him favour with voters, but simply being anti-Trump won’t be enough with a mini-Trump capable of galvanising new support having a much grander stage through to 2028.
AOC 2028 US Election Odds (9/1)
Ocasio-Cortez has long been popular with younger Democratic voters. In fact, December 2025 polls showed that the representative of New York was the preferred vote to Newsom and Harris with under-35s at that point.
However, AOC has a lot working against her within the confines of the US Presidential Election. Despite being a very public figure for over half-a-decade, she’s still very young. Plus, she’d be a woman going for the presidency.
This particular brand of the Republican Party has now ousted two popular and qualified women in Hillary Clinton and Harris. AOC is particularly progressive, too, so is unlikely to sway those who narrowly picked Trump last time.
Donald Trump Sr US Election Odds (10/1)
It seems ridiculous given the 22nd Amendment, which limits being elected to office to twice, and the 12th Amendment stopping those ineligible to be president to be vice-president that Trump Sr win the job again.
Even so, he’s defied the odds and logic on numerous occasions. Forever whipped up in a scandal or audacious tirade of claims, Trump gets remarkably short odds of 10/1 in the betting to be the 2028 election winner.
For years, opponents and casual onlookers have been waiting for the policy, quote, or scandal that will finally break the camel’s back, but even spurring an insurrection attempt did nothing in the US. Perhaps a certain set of files being released will.
As his supporters will say, Trump has taken a wrecking ball to political norms and continues to defy naysayers, so you shouldn’t count him out of the 2028 US Presidential Election odds just yet.
