The 2026 Formula One season begins in Melbourne this weekend. New regulations have led to smaller cars, no DRS, and a bit of a shake up across the grid.
McLaren, the reigning world champions, are out at 11/4 in the latest F1 betting Constructors’ Championship market. Lando Norris has the fifth shortest to win the Drivers’ Championship, with his teammate Oscar Piastri way out at 12/1.
Mercedes & Ferrari Lead the Way
Charles Leclerc set the fastest lap time at testing in Bahrain and Ferrari seem quietly confident about their chances.
Many of the paddock have pointed the finger at Mercedes when pondering which team has the fastest car, though, with McLaren seeming a little off the pace.
Everything in shakedown and testing has to be taken with a pinch of salt. There’s sandbagging aplenty and teams are experimenting with different setups.
Ferrari certainly look more competitive than they were in 2025. Mercedes’ power unit is the best on the grid, which also stands Williams in good stead as well.
After doing battle for the Drivers’ Championship in 2025, Red Bull and McLaren are potentially a step behind the Scuderia and Silver Arrows, though most preseason expectations are that the top four teams will be very close.
Constructors’ Championship Odds
- Mercedes – 5/4
- Ferrari – 5/2
- McLaren – 11/4
- Red Bull – 13/2
- Aston Martin – 33/1
- Alpine – 50/1
Fast Ferrari Starts
Mercedes were generally the quickest over long runs in testing, but Ferrari had some electric starts and showed good speed through the corners.
The guile and experience of Lewis Hamilton gives the Brit an advantage if energy harvesting plays as big a part as many predict. Hamilton was able to match Charles Leclerc’s raw pace for much of testing, showing there’s life in the seven-time world champion yet.
The sheer talent of Max Verstappen deserves acknowledgement, and Red Bull managed significantly close the gap on McLaren during the 2025 season, even though they started off the pace.
Twists and Turns
Sometimes a team is miles clear when new regulations are introduced. It doesn’t seem like that will be the case this time around.
Look for the path of this season to meander. Drivers will learn how best to use the energy deployment features, and teams are going to be adjusting as they go. Melbourne is a trip into the unknown for everyone.
Unlike in the last few seasons, there should be significant fluctuations in F1 outright odds throughout the campaign. A strong weekend from any driver or team could lead to overreaction from the markets given how little there is to go on with these cars.
F1 Outright Predictions
George Russell, like Verstappen over the last few years, is going to lead his team’s title charge. Ferrari and McLaren have two legitimate Drivers’ Championship contenders, which increases their Constructors’ chances.
Ferrari are good value at 5/2 given what they showed in Barcelona and Bahrain. Russell is the deserving favourite with the experience he’s developed and the pace of the Mercedes throughout testing.
Both Ferraris represent value in the Drivers’ market, though it’s hard to trust the Scuderia with their lack of success over the years. Keep a close eye on McLaren – their odds seem a little long considering how dominant they were in the first half of last year.
Drivers’ Championship Odds
- George Russell – 9/4
- Max Verstappen – 11/4
- Charles Leclerc – 9/2
- Lewis Hamilton – 6/1
- Lando Norris – 17/2
- Kimi Antonelli – 9/1
- Oscar Piastri – 12/1
*Odds subject to change - prices accurate at the time of writing*
