It is one of the most enduring myths in football, a fallacy that nobody really questions, so often it is stated.
A team gains a two-goal advantage and when they inevitably must defend at some point, perhaps concede a chance or two, it’s routinely trotted out, from a commentator who might even believe it. That 2-0 is the most dangerous lead of them all.
Of course, before we debunk this long-standing misnomer we must acknowledge that it only exists because it skirts the very edge of logic.
There is no point in highlighting that a single-goal advantage is precarious because that’s undeniable and obvious. Adding a goal though, well that raises eyebrows. That grabs attention.
Moreover, it is never mentioned when a superior side goes two up. It’s why you’ll rarely hear it said at the Etihad these days and why it was never uttered at Old Trafford throughout Manchester United’s long era of dominance.
Indeed, at no time during Sir Alex Ferguson’s 27 year reign did the Reds lose from a two goal lead. It happened in 1984, then next at Leicester City in 2014.
Even accepting the gulf in class that was often prevalent when United played, that huge expanse of time partly proves that having a two-goal cushion is actually a huge positive and not cause for trepidation, yet still the fallacy persists, one incidentally that is not exclusively a British misconception.
In the Czech Republic, fearing a two-goal advantage is called Csaplar’s Trap, after a particularly superstitious coach. Down under in Australia, the expression has been popularized by Johnny Warren, a well-known broadcaster.
Across football, and across the decades, it is a paranoid slice of doom-mongering that has become entrenched in our thinking and we all know exactly when it will make an appearance. We anticipate it. We cringe in expectation.
A team prominent in the Premier League relegation odds will go in front against a better side and they scrap with every fibre to preserve their lead. But then they ‘dare’ to score again and now complacency is a concern. Now they’re in peril.
🗣 "Two nil up is a good lead but it's a dangerous one."
— Football Daily (@footballdaily) May 3, 2022
Trent Alexander-Arnold says Liverpool can't be complacent with their 2-0 lead over Villarreal in the Champions League semi-final pic.twitter.com/fJeYKdBxsC
Thank goodness therefore for Opta stats who in 2016 conclusively disproved this old wives’ tale and then some.
Responding to a tweet by Gary Lineker, pondering this line of thinking, Opta calculated that in the Premier League’s existence there had been 1061 occasions when a team was two goals up at half-time. Only 22 of those teams went on to lose the game.
This equates to 2.1%, a meagre tally that allows for the very occasional implosion but also external factors such as a sending off or a late spate of injuries.
Within that scant number there is little evidence that complacency kicks in when a team goes two-up. Frankly, 98 times out of 100, the winning side is on easy street, at risk at most of ending up with a solitary point instead of the three.
So the next time you’ve taken a punt on an unfancied team in the football betting online and they extend on their lead against the odds, don’t panic.
And absolutely ignore the commentator when he trots out a well-worn cliché, that defies all reasonable logic.
*Credit for all of the photos in this article belongs to AP Photo*
