As the world turns its back on a World Cup tournament that more than lived up to its initial hype, the year of 2019 will be crucial in gauging the chances of many teams ahead of the Qatar-hosted 2022 World Cup.
After the staging of the AFC Asian Cup in January, the summer months will bear the bulk of this process, with the African Cup of Nations (AFCON), the CONCACAF Gold Cup and South America’s Copa América running concurrently throughout the midsummer of 2019.
Format Differences
Both the Asian Cup and AFCON have an identical format, with six groups of four teams. Two teams progress from those groups, with the four best third-placed teams making up the round of 16.
Containing twelve teams, the Copa América follows the same format but with one less group, making it eight teams (winners, runners-up and two third-placed teams) at the knockout stage.
Last – and by far the simplest – is the format of the CONCACAF Gold Cup, which is a scaled-down World Cup. Sixteen teams are split into two groups of four, with two survivors from each going into the knockout stage.
Is Success In These Tournaments Pivotal?
Not especially, but there are two notable examples of victory in a regional tournament, which have spurred teams on to improved fortunes at a subsequent World Cup.
Over in North America, there was a bit of a power shift in 2002, when the United States won the Gold Cup. That spurred them on to beat old rivals Mexico at the World Cup in Korea/Japan, after years of being overshadowed by 'El Tri'.
After winning the Gold Cup in 2009, the US also went on to top their World Cup group in South Africa.
One other notable case study can be found in the AFCON tournament of 1994, which was won by a Nigeria side that went on to become the surprise package of the 1994 World Cup.
Notable Asian Cup Winners: Where Are They Now?
As the trailblazer of regional international tournaments in 2019, the Asian Cup will act as the first indication of where every non-European team truly stands after the World Cup.
But in previous years, how much has it impacted on the long-term fate of its most famous winners?
South Korea (1546-60)
With the new K-League season starting in March, South Korea’s World Cup debut in 1954 proved to be a chastening one.
After shipping sixteen goals across games against Hungary and Turkey, the squad built on that experience to dominate the Asian Cup in the second half of the 1950s.
Sadly, the South Korean team failed to truly capitalise on this, and wouldn’t be back at a World Cup until 1998.
Iran (1968-76)
Next, it was Iran’s turn to dominate Asia.
Three successive triumphs in the Asian Cup culminated in the Iranians qualifying for their first ever World Cup in 1978 with a qualification record of ten wins and two draws from twelve games.
Iran’s debut turned out to be a poor one, with a goal difference of -6 making it the nation’s worst World Cup performance of a bad quintet.
Saudi Arabia (1984-88)
Saudi Arabia’s Asian Cup win of 1984 is seen by many as the genesis of the nation’s emergence as a World Cup regular. Even conceding their Asian Cup to Japan in 1992 could not derail their efforts to make the 1994 World Cup the nation’s first.
Saudi Arabia’s adventure to the round of 16, after a win in the final group game against 1990 quarter-finalists Belgium, proved to be the nation’s highlight of modern times. The ‘Green Eagles’ have never yet managed to better that performance.
Japan (2000-04 & 2011)
The Japanese are undoubtedly the poster boys for success after a maiden Asian Cup win.
They initially stole the cup from Saudi Arabia in 1992, but would return it to them four years later. Despite their failure to retain the cup, the ‘Samurai Blue’ got a World Cup debut in 1998.
It was a poor one, but when afforded home advantage between their second and third Asian Cup wins, there was no looking back.
No Japan side has ever bowed out of a World Cup with ‘nul points’ since, and there seems to be no danger of the nation ever fading back into its former obscurity.
Holders Australia There For The Taking In 2019
Though the 2018 World Cup represented a continuation of the Socceroos’ disappointments in the past decade, there was plenty to suggest that Graham Arnold's men have more than enough to negotiate their Asian Cup group.
The likes of Syria, Palestine and Jordan shouldn't offer too much resistance – albeit with one glaring omission from the usual squad.
This will be the Australian team’s first major tournament without Tim Cahill in a '23' for nearly fifteen years.
His industry in the final third has been a major asset to Australia for an entire generation, and with Cahill bowing out after 108 caps for Australia, the nation enters a new era of uncertainty.
Seeds Of Success
Four of the other top-seeded non-hosts will all have their own unique reasons for taking the spotlight ahead of 2019.
Iran To Meet Rivals Again
Iran are the highest FIFA-ranked side in the tournament, and although the Persian gulf giants once more failed to qualify for the knockout rounds of a World Cup in the summer, they put up a good fight against hot favourites Spain and Portugal.
The Iranians are joined in Group E by Iraq, Vietnam and Yemen, with Iraq being the only team of that three to have won any major honours - namely, the Asian Cup of 2007.
'Samurai Showdown' Looms
As the only Asian nation to reach the knockout round of the 2018 World Cup, Japan will also be a popular pick in the outright market odds list.
The nation’s historical tally of four Asian Cup titles is unmatched, further justifying these beliefs.
However, Japan’s nearest threat is Uzbekistan, a team that reached the Asian Cup semi-finals in 2011, and only missed out on the 2018 World Cup by two qualification round points.
It is, arguably, Uzbekistani football's biggest chance of making a seismic impact on their own continent for a generation.
China And South Korea In Group Of Death
Over in Group C, it looks for the world as though top spot will go to either South Korea or China.
South Korea defeated then-champions Germany in the group stage of the 2018 World Cup, while China was the highest ranked team in pot 2 at the time of the 2019 Asian Cup draw.
The investment in Chinese football is still at an early stage, but their odds will be under constant scrutiny over the next two months.
China have never won the Asian Cup, and last reached the final in 2004 – but there is a first time for everything...
888sport Asian Cup Prediction
It's a very tough call, but on the evidence of the 2018 World Cup, Iran will wrestle the trophy from an Australian squad that will miss its talisman more than many realise. Iran can currently be backed at 4/1, making them the joint-likeliest victors alongside South Korea.
