It is do or die time for the four remaining teams in the battle for this year’s Europa League crown.

Arsenal, dominant for large parts against Atletico Madrid at the Emirates Stadium last Thursday, went full Arsenal and gifted Antoine Griezmann an away goal – the initiative is now well and truly with the Spanish outfit.

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It looks like Arsene Wenger’s tenure could end without a Hollywood-esque European triumph in his final game in charge of the Gunners.

In the other semi-final, Marseille are two goals to the good against Red Bull Salzburg. Going to Austria won’t be easy but the French side are in complete control and it would be foolish to back against Marseille at this moment in time.

Stranger things have happened though; an early goal could change the entire complexion of the tie. Check out our best bets ahead of Thursday night’s double header below…

 

ATLETICO MADRID vs Arsenal

Atletico’s home record is formidable – Diego Simeone’s men have lost just one of their last 23 matches at the Wanda Metropolitano.

7/10 for a home win is quite short; the 9/5 for Atletico to win to nil carries more appeal considering their defensive prowess. This could be a real nail-biter for the two sets of supporters.

Wenger decided to rest a few of his most influential players for the trip to Old Trafford on Sunday afternoon; that could turn out to be a wise move.

With the tie nicely poised at 1-1, this could quite easily go to extra time and stamina may come into it. A repeat of that same scoreline on Thursday night is available at 6/1 with 888sport.

For me, the 4/5 on offer for Atletico to score two or more goals should be snapped up. This Gunners defence is shaky at the best of times and Arsenal could crumble under the intense pressure in Spain this week.

Expect Griezmann to mastermind another Atletico triumph and you’d be hard pressed to back against the Spanish outfit in this year’s final.

TIP: Atletico to score two or more goals @ 4/5

CORRECT SCORE: Atletico 2-1 Arsenal (Priced at 8/1 with 888sport)

SPECIAL: Atletico to be leading at half-time @ 6/5

 

RED BULL SALZBURG vs MARSEILLE

Both teams to score looks like an absolute certainty here. 3/5 is some price considering what is at stake; a Europa League final berth beckons.

Marseille may try to keep things tight but a two-goal lead is never comfortable and Rudi Garcia’s side will look to snatch a goal on the counter attack. At the other end, Salzburg simply MUST score to keep the tie alive.

My tip for Florian Thauvin to score the first goal last week was a winner and the former Newcastle United man followed that up with another opener in Marseille’s Ligue 1 fixture last weekend.

With that in mind, backing the Frenchman to bag another early goal is well worth considering at 13/2.

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As an outside bet, both teams to score in both halves is tempting at 12/1. Salzburg were very unlucky not to score in France last week and I’m expecting another open, exciting affair here.

Marseille have the wow factor and should progress but Salzburg could spring a shock if the visitors get off to a slow start.

TIP: Both teams to score @ 3/5

CORRECT SCORE: Salzburg 1-2 Marseille (Priced at 11/1 with 888sport)

SPECIAL: Both teams to score in both halves @ 12/1

 

*Odds subject to change - correct at time of writing*

Sports betting is not just about who will win and who will lose a particular event. In fact, the outcome of the overall event is completely irrelevant when wagering on many proposition bets such as the yellow and red cards/total bookings markets.

Wagering on yellow and red cards might not seem like an obvious bet choice to new punters, but it is a very popular market amongst more seasoned bettors. This is because the statistics are easy to research, and rules are straightforward.

This gives the bettor more of a sense that they are making an informed decision based on data rather than just going on gut instinct. Of all the stats-friendly markets, betting on cards is one of the easiest for punters to quickly get up to speed on.

Those looking to become knowledgeable about a particular market can easily find stats or keep their own records of cards issued in their league of choice, or even across multiple leagues. By delving deep into these niche markets, it can sometimes be easier to find high-value bets.

So let’s take a closer look at the choices available in the bookings market.

 

First Bookings

There are several ways in which you can bet on yellow and red cards. The first, and most simple, way is to bet on which team will receive the first booking in the match.

The odds for each team to be booked first are usually quite close to EVENS in this market, while the odds for no booking at all are typically quite high, often as much as 16/1 such is the rarity of this occurrence. You can find all betting odds explained in our handy guide.

A much harder bet to predict is which player will be booked first, but there are plenty of hot-headed characters out there who attract action in this market.

This bet can also be attractive if there is a big derby game involving a player with a feisty reputation. In such a situation, the next bet types could also come into play.

 

Team To Have A Player Sent Off

Bettors who feel that a particular game might get a bit heated could be tempted to delve into this market. Just predict if a team will have a player sent off at any point in the encounter.

The price you are offered could be affected by many factors such as the team’s reputation, their previous dismissal record and which team they are facing.

 

A Specific Player To Be Sent Off

Much like the previous bet but you must name the player who you think is going to see red. Certain players are more likely to get sent off than others and certain games can produce more reds than others.

Identifying the teams, players and head-to-head encounters that are more likely to draw a dismissal is the key to finding value in this market.

Of the players still active in the game, Real Madrid’s Sergio Ramos holds the record for the highest number of red cards received with a total of 23 accumulated over a 16 year period.

But remarkably, he has never been sent off while playing for the Spanish national team despite making 149 appearances.

Having said that, Ramos still has a long way to go to match the record of 46 red cards picked up by retired Colombian defensive midfielder Gerardo Bedoya.

The hot-headed former Millonarios and Santa Fe man was once suspended for 15 matches for violent conduct following an incident in the Bogota derby.

 

Total Booking Points

This market is appealing to regular punters because there is no requirement to predict the exact player or team to which the cards will be issued.

Wagers are simply placed according to the overall number of booking points that will be accumulated in the game.

To bet in this market you need to understand the booking points system. All bookmakers use a points system to allocate values to the cards.

For example, at 888sport, the following point are allocated bookings:

• Yellow card = 10 points
• Red card = 25 points
• Maximum points for one player are 35

This makes it easy for bettors to understand and allows markets to be set at certain benchmarks. Here are a few bets that you may be offered in this market:

• Over 3.5 booking points
• Under 3.5 booking points
• Home team Under 1.5 booking points
• Home team Over 1.5 booking points
• Home team Under 1.5 booking points
• Home team Over 1.5 booking points

So, for the Premier League match between Arsenal and Newcastle in December, 888sport were offering 5/4 for under 3.5 cards and 11/20 for over 3.5 cards.

However, Arsenal were 6/4 to receive over 1.5 points, while Newcastle were 1/2 in the same market, suggesting that visitors were expected to take up more space in the referee's book.

 

Handicap Cards Betting

Handicap betting on cards works the same as in any other soccer handicap market. The bookmaker will give one side an advantage or head start over the other in order to balance any perceived bias between the two.

A team with a -1 handicap would have to receive one booking point just to draw level with the other team who would start with a +1 handicap. If the first team received two more booking points than the second, the handicap bet would win.

But if they received the same or fewer points, the second team would win. If the first team received one more point, the points would be equal when the handicap is applied resulting in a push result and stakes would be returned.

The push scenario can be avoided with fractional handicaps. So, one team might have a -0.5 handicap and the other a +0.5. In this situation, a push is not possible as one team would always have the edge over the other.

For example, if the first team (-0.5) gets one more card than the second team (+0.5) they would have a half point advantage and would the bet would. But if they have the same or fewer points, they would lose once the handicap is applied.

 

Crunching The Numbers

You can look at stats to help you make a decision. For example, with 18 games played this season, all of Brighton and Hove Albion’s away matches had produced 3.5 booking points or less, while 77.8% of West Ham’s away games had produced that number or higher.

It is also worth noting that some match referees tend to give out more yellow cards per game than others, while some hand out fewer yellows but are more likely to show red.

These kind of discrepancies can be used to help you make your final decision. So it is important to check which man in black will be taking charge of a game before placing any bets.  

By looking at all the numbers and also considering other factors such as card-happy referees, derby matches etc. sharp punters can make accurate estimations about the total number of booking points in a game.

 

*Odds subject to change - correct at time of writing*

The QIPCO 2000 Guineas, is one of Newmarket’s Group 1 races, open to three-year-old colts and fillies and boasts an impressive roll of honour including the unforgettable Frankel. The race takes place at 3.35pm on Saturday 5th May.

Although they only have to carry 8st 11lbs compared to the 9st a colt is allotted, fillies very rarely contest the QIPCO 2000 Guineas nowadays.

They almost invariably stick to their own equivalent event, the QIPCO 1000 Guineas which is run the day after on a Sunday.  The last filly to triumph was Garden Path in 1944.

Here are the main movers and shakers in the horse racing betting markets for Saturday’s 2000 Guineas:

Masar

Charlie Appleby reports Masar is ready and raring to go ahead of his run in the 2000 Guineas.

The Godolphin owned colt put a disappointing run in Dubai well behind him when making every yard to score a nine-length victory in the Craven Stakes at Newmarket on his return to British shores.

Appleby believes the dirt surface at Meydan was to blame for Masar's Dubai defeat.

Masar has already raced in four countries, having won the Solario Stakes at Sandown in September before heading to Chantilly, where he was third to Happily in Prix Jean-Luc Lagadere and the Breeders’ Cup in Del Mar, where he was almost three lengths behind Aidan O’Brien’s Kentucky Derby hope Mendelssohn.

Gustav Klimt

Gustav Klimt was installed as the favourite for the 2000 Guineas after swooping through late in the day to capture the Ballylinch Stud 2,000 Guineas Trial Stakes at Leopardstown.

Aidan O’Brien’s runner had been off the track since winning the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket last July, but punters were all over him that day, sending him off the 6/4 favourite for the seven-furlong event.

His stablemate and last year's European champion two-year-old U S Navy Flag disappointed in the same race, trailing home last of the four runners.

Elarqam & Cardsharp

Elarqam is unbeaten in two career starts and he has not been seen in competitive action since landing the Tattersalls Stakes at Newmarket last September. He did however have a racecourse gallop over the Rowley Mile during the Craven meeting.

Elarqam certainly boasts a top class pedigree. The three-year-old is a son of the brilliant Frankel, who won the 2000 Guineas seven years ago, out of trainer Mark Johnston’s top-class racemare Attraction, who won five Group Ones, including the 1000 Guineas in 2004.

Johnston also intends to saddle Cardsharp, the winner of the Arqana July Stakes and placed repeatedly at the highest level in his last campaign.

The colt has only had one start this season, when he was well beaten at Deauville earlier this month.

 

Saxon Warrior

Saxon Warrior remains on Ballydoyle's radar for the 2,000 Guineas next weekend, trainer Aidan O'Brien reported last Friday, despite taking a marked drift in the betting.

Saxon Warrior did all his racing over a mile last year, once of his main quality being a turn of foot. He quickened up nicely to win with ease on his debut, then he did his rivals for speed in a Group 2 at Naas. In the Racing Post Trophy, he travelled strongly before finding something extra when headed.

The Deep Impact colt will be arriving at Newmarket without a prep run but it is nothing that unduly worries O’Brien.

Without Parole

Without Parole looked a Pattern-race type when his obvious talent came to the fore at Yarmouth on debut.

The son of Frankel, hold entries in the 2000 Guineas and the Dante, went into many notebooks initially when he made a winning debut at Newcastle last December, and look good once again with a six-length victory in the John Kemp 4x4 Centre Of Norwich Novice Stakes at Yarmouth last Tuesday.

It took a while for Without Parole to hit top gear but when he did it was decisive and John Gosden's charge swept past the front-runner Ostilio with ease. It was a further eight lengths back to Cheer The Title in third.

 

Expert Eye

Sir Michael Stoute’s Expert Eye had previously been favourite for the 2000 Guineas after seeing off a competitive field in Goodwood’s Vintage Stakes last July.

He remained out of action until the Dewhurst at Newmarket when sent off the hot favourite but he failed to show that same sparkle as he trailed home last in a field of nine.

In the recent Greenham Stakes at Newbury much of the pre-race focus was on Expert Eye but he was foiled on the day by the George Scott trained James Garfield, going down by just three-quarters of a length.

Roaring Lion

Although holding his price in the market around the 12/1 mark, John Gosden is very lukewarm on the idea of running Roaring Lion at Newmarket on Saturday.

The Qatar Racing-owned colt failed to strengthen his Classic claims after he could only finish third in the Craven Stakes, in which he was sent off the 8-13 favourite.

 

James Garfield

James Garfield stepped into the 2000 Guineas picture with a second Group success at Newbury in the Al Basti Equiworld Supporting Greatwood Greenham Stakes.

Winner of the Mill Reef Stakes last September, the George Scott trained colt narrowly got the upper hand over fellow 2000 Guineas rival, Expert Eye.
Scott is only 29 years of age and has held a training licence for little more than two years. James Garfield is owned and was bred by Scott’s father-in-law and brother-in-law, Bill and Tim Gredley.

The colt is likely to have the services of Frankie Dettori once again on Saturday.

Weekend weather outlook

Conditions at Newmarket are expected to improve ahead of the QIPCO Guineas Festival next weekend once a period of wet weather has passed through the region.

The going was described as good, good to soft in places on Sunday afternoon following rain on Friday and early on Saturday.

More rain is forecast from late on Sunday until Tuesday morning but after that it should be a relatively dry week.

*Odds subject to change - correct at time of writing*

After months without the Champions League during winter, the knockout rounds come thick and fast in spring. The semi-finals are no different, with the second legs only a week after the first meeting.

The first leg encounters are fresh in the memory. Perhaps too fresh for some of the teams. For us fans, though, it’s a pleasant treat to have another Champions League week.

So, here are a few thoughts and tips as the final four battle to make it into the Champions League Final…

REAL MADRID vs Bayern Munich

Real Madrid were not good in the Allianz Arena in the first leg. It was an underwhelming performance from a team who have delivered in the Champions League knockout rounds without fail under Zinedine Zidane’s stewardship.

They still won that match, notching two away goals in the process. A belter from Marcelo, despite a dire defensive performance from the Brazilian, was everything that the latter stages of the Champions League are about. Individual brilliance outweighed a disjointed team effort.

Both teams won favourable home league fixtures this weekend. Bayern dispatched Eintracht Frankfurt at the Allianz, despite a line-up almost completely unrecognisable from the one we will see at the Santiago Bernabeu on Tuesday. Not much can be taken from their weekend performances.

The hosts have the upper hand heading back to Spain, making them 11/50 to reach the final. Bayern might fancy their chances of scoring a couple of goals – which they have to – but keeping this Real Madrid frontline quiet is improbable.

Cristiano Ronaldo will not struggle as much as he did in the first leg, and the return to form of Gareth Bale gives Zidane even more options. I like the 13/2 on Bale to score last.

As the Bavarian visitors chase goals, we might get a cracker at the Bernabeu. I fear it will be a pleasant cruise towards another final for the reigning champions, however. If Real open the scoring, this could end up getting a bit ugly for Bayern as they chase the game.

TIP: Real Madrid to win @ 11/10

 

AS ROMA vs LIVERPOOL

The 5-2 Liverpool victory at Anfield was one of the all-time great Champions League knockout matches. Mohamed Salah took the headlines as he reinforced his Ballon d’Or case, but it was really the failings of the two defences that made it such a great watch.

Roma’s two late goals kept the tie just about alive. A 3-0 home victory would put them in the final, but unsurprisingly the odds are stacked against the Serie A side to progress at 15/2. They did prepare for this by thumping Chievo 4-1, though, which may at least give the squad a smidgen of confidence.

Liverpool drew with Stoke on Saturday. It was a painful match to watch, but we can’t read much into it. Jurgen Klopp’s side are all-but guaranteed a top four finish, while Stoke are scrapping to elongate their Premier League stay.

I really doubt we will see such a limp performance from the Reds in the Italian capital on Wednesday.

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Roma shutting out Liverpool is extremely unlikely. Their catastrophic defending in the first leg hardly inspires confidence. Salah is 10/11 to score anytime, which I still see as decent value given their troubles defending his runs in behind.

After the first leg, the Evens price on over 3.5 goals is higher than I expected. Roma have no choice but to chase the game, while Liverpool know no other way.

The Stadio Olimpico will be bouncing when the Champions League anthem bellows out at about 7:43. This match has the potential to be every bit as enjoyable as the Anfield encounter.

TIP: Over 3.5 goals @ EVENS

 

*Odds subject to change - correct at time of writing*