Round 34 could prove to be a pivotal point in the season at both ends of the table, with the fate of Sheffield United almost sealed and the title race looking like a two-horse contest.
West Ham United vs Liverpool
The Reds have entered the Last Chance Saloon, and anything other than three points will end all hope for a Premier League title.
A thin squad, overstretched and overplayed on occasions due to injury, unfortunately, collapsed, and Jurgen Klopp’s big send-off parade has well and truly been rained on.
With defeat in the Merseyside derby midweek, gone are any realistic aspirations of beating Manchester City or Arsenal to the top spot, although mathematically, it can still be done. Therefore, it will be interesting to see how Liverpool sees out the campaign, having hit the buffers.
The Reds hope to return to goalscoring ways after blanking in three of their last five matches, but despite consecutive losses in the league, West Ham are still fighting for a European place, and we could see a shock home win.
Data-wise, the Hammers are not fancied; only three teams have less chance of victory (19%), but we’re at the stage of the season where football odds can be disregarded due to the nature of the run-in and other mitigating circumstances.
Defensively, Liverpool have struggled, and one clean sheet in 13 matches has contributed to their downfall. But with only 54 goals FOR, West Ham may not have the firepower to turn this into a high-scoring game, and their set-piece quality may be the difference.
And it was deadball tactics that were utilised well by Everton on Wednesday that saw Sean Dyche mastermind a two-nil win to all but secure their place in the league for 2024-25.
Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal
The Gunners have responded perfectly to back-to-back losses, in stark contrast to Liverpool.
Previous accusations of mental fragility can now be discounted as Arsenal look set to push Champions Manchester City all the way.
Although this is a North London derby, where anything can happen, the gulf in quality between the two sides should see the Gunners win comfortably on paper, but in the cauldron of the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, where Arsenal have only won once since 2015, anything can happen.
Spurs have had 15 days to reflect on the heavy 4-0 loss to Newcastle and to work on those defensive frailties that cost them dearly in Gameweek 33.
Tottenham have just one clean sheet in fifteen matches – a two-nil win at Forest back in December – and they must tighten up against a side with the most goals (82) in 2023-24 and an average of 3.2 goals per game over the last eleven fixtures.
Arsenal will also limit their hosts offensively, and with 16 clean sheets, no team can match their output before the end of the season, with David Raya (14) on course to win the Golden Glove.
Arsenal will hope to build on their emphatic win over Chelsea midweek, although the supercomputer has the tie a little closer (56%) in terms of an away win!
Fulham vs Crystal Palace
A win over Newcastle on Wednesday means we will see Palace in the top-flight again next season, so with the shackles off and Fulham also safe, this could be a really entertaining game.
The Eagles have flourished under Oliver Glasner, with Jean-Philippe Mateta loving life under the new boss. Only Cole Palmer has scored more than the Frenchman (8) since the beginning of March.
With ten goals in their last four matches, plus the joint-highest Big Chances (15), Palace are finishing with a flurry following the return of Michael Olise alongside Eberechi Eze.
For Fulham, their season is just beginning to peter out, with a win at West Ham their only victory in five. Still, Marco Silva can be happy with a mid-table finish after losing top goal scorer Aleksandar Mitrovic in August.
Rodrigo Muniz has helped fill the void in recent times, but after hitting 8 in eight, he has blanked in four, and The Cottagers have only scored twice.
This is a hard game to call, but Palace could edge it with Top 5 form since Matchday 29.
Offensively, the Eagles offer a far superior threat: Mateta, 5 in four games, plus Eze sits in the Top 6 for xGI in this incredible run (5.1), while Olise has created three Big Chances and six key passes since his return.
Manchester United vs Burnley
The Red Devils’ season seemed to peak in a freak FA Cup performance against Liverpool.
But with only one win in six since, coming from behind twice to beat bottom side Sheffield United (4-2), the pressure is ramping up on Erik ten Hag as performances continue to disappoint.
In contrast, the travelling Clarets have tasted defeat just once since early March, at Everton, and with the possibility of drawing level with Nottingham Forest on points in seventeenth, they have the incentive to make a mockery of their 17 per cent likelihood of victory.
The side has managed 12 goals during this period – 1.7 per game – an increase in output of 56 per cent as they target the most unlikely of comebacks to beat the drop.
And this could bode well at Old Trafford, with United conceding two goals in four of their last five home matches, and six in eight games with only one clean sheet in nine across all competitions.
The result against the Blades midweek shows United have a soft underbelly, with Championship side Coventry City also highlighting a lack of defensive grit, which will give Vincent Kompany and his players confidence.
Do not be surprised if Burnley leaves Old Trafford with at least a point, with the Clarets being one of my Premier League tips this weekend.
*Credit for all of the photos in this article belongs to Alamy*
