The Premier League allowed teams to make five substitutions per match upon the return from the hiatus. It is a notable change, one that will impact Premier League Odds for as long as the rule stands.
Unexpected circumstances provoke unexpected changes. The Premier League isn’t an organisation for radical alterations, and in the season that VAR has been such a point of controversy, no one was ready for more.
How Has 5 Subs Impacted Football?
Of all the possible modifications to the game in the near-future, an increase in permitted substitutions was not one being leaked or pondered on podcasts. It was a needs must decision, a move made to make it feasible to finish the 2019-20 season.
For what seems an insignificant tweak to the game, the decision to give Premier League teams two more substitutions has potentially substantial consequences.
Added Managerial Influence
The opportunity for managers to impact the game has drastically increased with additional substitutions and the Premier League drinks breaks.
A 66% increase in the number of players they can change, and a trebling in the number of in-match intervals to talk to their players, gives managers influence on the match that they previously did not have.
Over a longer period, the use of substitutes and the performance after timeouts could become a notable football betting trend. Brentford’s Thomas Frank was told off for bringing out a tactics board for the drinks breaks.
Whether tactics board in hand or not, managers are using this period to get messages across. Matches have frequently swung, being unrecognisable from the game that was being played before the drinks were taken.
Pairing this with the option to make more changes to personnel enhances the role a manager can have on matchday. They were largely a passenger before; perhaps this is a transition from matchday spectator to a more hands-on involvement like an NBA or NFL coach.
The longer these rules remain, the more they will be considered for our Premier League predictions. How managers have used their substitutes, how they have used their new powers at drinks breaks, will become an important part of their evaluation.
Whether or not this is a good thing is subjective, like most things in football. Adding a fresh layer to the game, though, is largely a positive.
Exaggerates League Imbalance
Manchester City can bring on Phil Foden or Gabriel Jesus. The rest of the league cannot. The Premier League is already suffering a vast divide between the haves and have nots – five substitutions risks furthering that chasm.
Although the top four betting shifted throughout the season, all of the Premier League’s ‘big six’ still qualified for Europe.
The depth of wealth in the Premier League is incomparable to other leagues, but there is a startling lack of parity. Players who barely make the bench at the six richest teams would walk into the starting line-up of the majority of the rest of the league.
Pep Guardiola has greater resources at his disposal already. More substitutions allow him to delve deeper into his wardrobe of elite talents.
Whether for tactical reasons or to inject some fresh legs, Guardiola can bring players on that would start for pretty much every other team on the planet.
Effectively, the players involved on a matchday swells from 14 to 16. That sounds a minor difference, and in many ways it is, but it shines an intense light on squad depth.
Even between the top teams, this will make a difference. It is a stark reminder of the league’s inequality.
The opposite may also be true. Online betting decisions are never straight forward, and that is the case here, too. It will not always favour the stronger squad.
How managers use their substitutes will still matter. Having better players does not equal victory, and it is reductive to view football as such.
It might aid the richer club on more occasions than not, but the team under pressure, who has been chasing the ball for most of the match, will often be thankful for the chance to bring on less fatigued players.
Equally, an underdog set up in a low block who has gone behind might want to make drastic changes. Extra substitutes give more flexibility for managers to switch shape, to revamp their gameplan as they pursue an equaliser or victory.
The immediate reaction is that this only helps the richest clubs.
For the most part, it will. It isn’t exclusively the top six that it benefits, however, and it ultimately depends on how well managers take advantage of their substitutions – as many fans will attest, plenty do not make good use of their bench.
Long Term Squad Building
Squad depth is important at the moment, but it could become a bigger element of Premier League football if five substitutions are allowed permanently.
The teams eyeing up the top of the outright winner odds are obviously building a deep group of players to challenge of multiple fronts – could more teams prioritise spending on squad players if they know they can use five non-starters per match?
Ideally, squads are finely balanced. Clubs strive for a mix of players fitting how a manager wants to play without excess wages on players who will seldom be used.
Perhaps that balance is different with five substitutes to be used in every Premier League match. Perhaps the wage budget for a backup striker, or for an impact winger, increases.
Squad building will not be impacted by this new rule for some clubs. It matters for those who are very precise when they construct their playing staff for a season, and even then, this might be no more than a minor consideration.
If the top six clubs want this rule to remain, it has a very good chance of doing so. The concerns about furthering the gap between the richest and the rest are legitimate.
It changes the game in more ways than one would think on the surface of it – some are positive, others are much less so.
If other measures are taken to level the Premier League playing field (which admittedly seems very unlikely), allowing five substitutions could add to the game. For now, though, it risks exaggerating the worst of the Premier League.
*Credit for the main photo belongs to Kirsty Wigglesworth / AP Photo*
FIRST PUBLISHED: 2nd August 2020
