There are no certainties in sport. A strong horse winning by several lengths can suddenly take a tumble, or a red card can undermine a heavy favourite’s chances.
Yet, if a horse or a team is perceived as a near certainty, then outright betting markets become devoid of value.
There is little reward in backing a heavy favourite at a short price because of that small possibility of a bizarre event happening, while there is little to gain in backing an outsider because of that strong probability that the favourite will indeed win.
While the overall winner may not be in doubt, the margin and manner of victory can remain unclear. When there are heavy favourites, it is more prudent to look for angles that assume their victory is a formality but seek to capitalise on the margin and manner of triumph.
Alternatively, prop bets that focus on events that don't affect the match's final outcome can also help to bring value back.
Football
The gap in quality between the top and the bottom of the Premier League has become a chasm.
The likes of Manchester City and Liverpool are expected to have a near monopoly on possession and brush aside most teams with ease, with the two sides often at short odds of 2/13 or 2/11 for home fixtures.
While City’s defeat to Crystal Palace demonstrated that even the best sides are fallible, betting on rank outsiders is not a sustainable approach. The likes of City, Liverpool and Spurs largely beat the sides they are expected to beat, often by comfortable margins.
This opens up options in the handicap market. While most wouldn't have expected the -8 handicap to come in for City's 9-0 victory over Burton, those who went for more conservative handicaps would have been vindicated.
Another possible angle is to look at the yellow card market; when sides have their backs to the wall for 90 minutes, there are far more opportunities for a rash tackle or a cynical foul.
A defender set to come up against the mesmeric dribbling and pace of a Mohamed Salah or a Leroy Sane is going to find it hard to avoid mistiming a challenge.
Taking the time to research line-ups to identify a centre-back or midfielder who has been asked to deputise in the full-back position can highlight suitable candidates for the first yellow card of the match.
Conversely, an attacker up against a makeshift defender would make an appealing candidate in the First Goalscorer market.
Formula One
Lewis Hamilton is on the verge of breaking records and is unlikely to take his foot off the gas any time soon.
The Brit is one championship away from surpassing Juan Manuel Fangio’s collection of five titles and two championships away from equalling Michael Schumacher’s remarkable record of seven titles.
Hamilton has won four of the last five championships, with the exception in 2016 seeing the Mercedes star pipped by team-mate Nico Rosberg with a margin of just five points.
Hamilton is expected to continue his imperious form in 2019, with odds of 3/4 for the Brit to seal his third consecutive title.
That dominance denies the outright market of much value, but by betting on drivers to breach the top three finishes, it negates the form of Hamilton as there are still two other places up for grabs.
Unsurprisingly, the pairs from Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari comprise the six shortest prices, but at 14/1 Daniel Ricciardo is an interesting proposition to finish in the top three.
The Australian has made the shift from Red Bull to Renault, the fourth best team of 2018, but his wins in China and Monaco reveal recent winning pedigree.
Kimi Raikkonen has returned to Sauber for 2019 and can be backed at 11/1 to win any race in the season. That type of bet caters for Hamilton domination and can run right until the end of the season.
Of course, whether Raikkonen can use his experience and nous to take a Sauber car to the front of the pack, even just for one race, remains to be seen.
Tennis
Between 2015 and 2018, the 16 ATP Grand Slams were shared between 5 individuals: Novak Djokovic (7), Roger Federer (3), Rafael Nadal (3), Stan Wawrinka (2) and Andy Murray (1).
Betting on an outsider can provide hedging opportunities later in the tournament, with those backing Kevin Anderson at Wimbledon in 2018 or Milos Raonic at the same tournament in 2016 rewarded by a surprise run to the final.
Yet, the stranglehold that the Fab Five have had on Grand Slam finals in recent years means outright markets are dominated by those same names.
However, as with football, handicaps can provide interesting options for those confident that the favourite will swat away the opposition with relative ease. This can be especially advantageous in the early round of a slam, although, of course, shocks can happen.
A player who has earned entry into the main draw of a Slam by virtue of their clay-court expertise may offer little resistance at a hard-court Slam.
This was evidenced at the 2018 Australian Open where Nadal powered past Victor Estrella Burgos 6-1 6-1 6-1 in the first round to easily cover the game handicap.
Betting on Nadal to drop a set is particularly unwise at Roland Garros, as the Spaniard lost just one set on his way to the 2018 French Open title.
Yet, Nadal is not a prodigious server, so there are opportunities to be had in the aces market. The Spaniard didn’t hit a single ace in the 2018 French Open semi-final or final, against Juan Martin del Potro and Dominic Thiem respectively.
While those are two players who are among the tour’s best, a less-fancied player with a strong serve has a fair chance of hitting more aces than Nadal even in defeat.
Horse Racing
As with other sports, betting on the margin of victory is one way of finding value in a market skewed towards one individual.
Estimating the number of lengths in victory brings an element of interest back to the heavy favourite, especially when the rest of the field appears to be over-valued in their ability to stay close to the strongest runner.
There is also the option to pretend that the heavy favourite doesn't exist by selecting markets that remove the strongest horse from the betting.
Second then becomes the new first, in which you hope that the backed horse outperforms the rest of the chasing pack while the favourite does their own thing.
This type of bet is equivalent to backing a top-two finish; the favourite may fail altogether and the backed horse may win the race outright, but this type of bet provides a degree of security in case the favourite does blow away the field.
While heavy favourites can often remove much of the drama from a sporting event, the existence of handicaps and prop bets can shift the goalposts in one-sided match-ups.
Whether backing a favourite to win with great ease or backing an opponent to keep things respectable, there is value to be found in markets dominated by a big name or team.
*Odds subject to change - correct at time of writing*
