And just like that, it was over; GW38, the final round of fixtures, will all kick off at 4 pm GMT on Sunday.

Historically, these matches are unprecedented in terms of rotation, and I'm expecting a sharp rise in the average number of changes per team. There will be a few selection surprises! Build your bench and build it deep to finish the season strong. 

£103.1m buys you this little lot in various formational setups within fantasy premier league rules. Good luck, everyone, and thanks for having me!

FPL GW38 XI:

Goalkeeper

David Raya (£4.3m) Predicted Points (3.6)

The Bees will be looking to end the season on a high in front of their fans. Visitors Leeds may need a win to stay up, but Jesse Marsch's side struggles to create chances with only two goals in their last five games.

Raya has a 29 per cent chance of keeping a clean sheet.

Bench:

  • Angus Gunn (£4.0m) Predicted Points (2.6) - A low-cost placeholder.

Defenders

Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.4m) Predicted Points (1.8)

However small it may be, Liverpool still have a chance of winning the title on Sunday. Jurgen Klopp made nine changes for the trip to St Mary's, but expect the big guns to return this weekend as the Reds push City all of the way.

Trent offers an attacking threat, plus a 1 in 2 clean sheet chance. Only Marcos Alonso can better his predicted points for this game week amongst defenders.  

Joao Cancelo (£7.2m) Predicted Points (3.8)

What can you say that hasn't already been said? Only a win would guarantee City the title, and the onus will be on the Citizens to score early and keep it tight at the back.

Cancelo will become the first non-Liverpool defender to score 200+ points in a single FPL season. 

Ryan Sessegnon (£4.3m) Predicted Points (3.5), and Emerson Royal (£4.6m) Predicted Points (2.9)

For the first time in 2021/22, I'm looking to double up on Tottenham assets in defence. Both are cheap starters with a 39 per cent chance of stopping Norwich from scoring.

Sessegnon has the lower predicted points but a higher chance of any return (51%), although Emerson Royal is looked dangerous.

Bench:

  • Oleksandr Zinchenko (£5.3m) Predicted Points (2.9) - With Kyle Walker, Ruben Dias, and John Stones ruled out, Zinchenko should be nailed as a starter. 

Midfielders

Heung-Min Son (£11.1m) Predicted Points (5.6)

The Spurs star is an essential own. This matchup looks brilliant on paper as Tottenham still have it all to play for against the worst defence in the league. The Canaries are already relegated and have a league-worst 16 goals conceded in their previous six matches. This bodes well for Son, who has six attacking contributions in his last four games. The South Korean is ranked second-highest for predicted points of all players, with a massive 74 per cent chance of returning.  

Kevin De Bruyne (£12.0m) Predicted Points (5.3)

The Belgian has been instrumental in a recent run that has seen the Citizens score 24 goals in just six matches. The form of De Bruyne has been outstanding, and despite an injury-hampered start to the campaign, he has still managed his best goal-scoring return (15). KDB is ranked fourth overall for expected points on the final day, with a high probability of adding to his tally. 

Luis Diaz (£8.1m) Predicted Points (1.8)

Given the injury concerns surrounding Mohamed Salah, Jurgen Klopp may not want to take any risks with a Champions League final on the horizon. And that should stand Diaz in good stead. The Colombian offers better value based on form for this one-off game at £3.7m less than teammate Sadio Mane. Diaz has the highest xGI, most penalty area touches, and the most FPL points of those attackers at Jurgen Klopp's disposal. Liverpool have the second-best attack over the last six while their visitors – Wolves – are sitting in the bottom three for xG conceded with 13 goals.

Bench:

  • Wilfried Zaha (£6.9m) Predicted Points (3.5)

Zaha is the talisman of the Palace side and comes into the game against his former employers with some good underlying numbers. I believe his 44 per cent chance of a return is relatively low given how bad Manchester United have been in recent matches, and the Eagles should finish with a comfortable three points. 

  • Jarrod Bowen (£6.8m) Predicted Points (3.9)

One of the most in-form players and someone you may wish to include in your starting XI. Bowen defied the odds again last weekend with a terrific double against Manchester City to help secure European football. That is the only reason I'm choosing to bench him, as the Hammers have done all the hard work, and they are safe in seventh place.

Forwards

Ivan Toney (£6.8m) Predicted Points (3.8)

The Brentford striker is one of my must-own assets on the final day. Leeds continue to post some of the league's worst defensive data with bottom five xG conceded in their last six.

Toney has the third-highest predicted points and an appealing 51 per cent chance of scoring combined with a 61 per cent chance of any return. He could even be a great differential captaincy option!

Eddie Nketiah (£5.7m) Predicted Points (3.6), and Richarlison (£7.6m) Predicted Points (2.6)

I have selected two players from the same match but on opposing sides. Arsenal will have a point to prove after handing the advantage to rivals Tottenham in the race for a Champions League place on Monday night.

However, they still have a very small chance of nicking fourth, and while it remains a possibility, I expect Mikel Arteta to go all out. The Toffees play on Thursday evening, and a win would see them stay in the topflight.

And if that happens, we should see an entertaining relaxed encounter with potentially lots of goals. Yerry Mina would not be risked, given his recent injury problems.

Arsenal could also be forced into a reshuffle with Takehiro Tomiyasu ruled out, plus Ben White and Gabriel struggling. 
 
It could be Nketiah's final game for the club, and he has a great chance of a return (55%), plus his cheap price tag coupled with Everton's low clean sheet rating (13%), is enough to convince me.

For the Toffees, Richarlison is worthy of consideration even though Arsenal are given a 42 per cent chance of a clean sheet.

However, this does not consider injuries to their backline, and the Brazilian's 1 in 3 chance of returning points looks like a great betting opportunity.

Bench:

  • Eddie Nketiah (£5.5m) (3.8 Predicted Points) - It is now four goals in as many games for the Gunners frontman (before the north London derby).

Best FPL Tips For Gameweek 38:


FIRST PUBLISHED: 12th August 2021

About the Author
By
Ben Dinnery Football Expert

Ben Dinnery is the founder of Premier Injuries, a website used to track and record injury data for the British Premier League.

Described by The Telegraph as the “country’s leading data injury analyst,” Ben provides statistic insight and data to a host of broadsheet outlets and some of the world’s leading media organisations.

A regular contributor on talkSPORT radio and BBC Radio 5 Live, Ben’s data is published globally through his work with Sky Sports, NBC Sports and ESPN plus a host of other leading media broadcasters.