Football is full of supposed truisms that ironically have very little truth to them at all.
That 2-0 is the most dangerous of leads is one such misnomer, with basic logic informing us that being two goals down is a far more trepidatious score-line.
Instead, common sense is purposely subverted, and the obvious pluses of having a two-goal advantage is tarnished with a reputation it ill-deserves. A team two up will win a game 90% of the time, outright losing the contest only 2.5% of the time.
Another nonsensical maxim almost always comes to the fore when an unfancied side in the betting markets scores against a supposed superior within the opening passages of play.
Among the beleaguered fan-base of the underdog, usually muttered to a fellow sufferer in bitter tones following a brief moment of delirium, a phrase is aired, one that insinuates the celebrating side have just made an awful error of judgement.
Because in a moment of sheer madness, they’ve only gone and scored too early.
The implication is that by overturning the betting odds a good stretch before half-time, it gives the better side an extended period of time to go on the offensive.
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More so, they will attack while especially angry and motivated having conceded against expectation.
Don’t provoke a tiger so soon on entering its cage, the theory goes. Instead, it is infinitely preferable to avoid being eaten alive until the very last moment, then call it hurtful names on your exiting.
Which in fairness, is a strategy we can all get behind, were we to find ourselves in such surreal circumstances, and furthermore should we temporarily forego our animal loving nature.
On the football field however, in reality, a team simply doesn’t get to choose when to strike. It doesn’t get to pick the 94th minute then immediately get the heck out of Dodge.
Scoring against strong opponents is difficult – and beneficial – enough at any juncture.
A case in point. Imagine if you will that you support a side rock-bottom of the Premier League, and your striker is clean through at the Etihad or Anfield in the fifth minute.
Do you want that forward to scuff his chance, for fear of offending Kevin De Bruyne, or riling up Mo Salah for the remaining 85 minutes? A goal after all gives your team something to protect.
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It provides a platform to grab a potentially decisive second – for that most dangerous of score-lines - on the break. It means even a concession would only bring them level.
Scoring a goal early in a game gives a team a significant advantage. And that’s just common sense.
More so, the stats back this up.
Regardless of the difference in quality of the teams involved, a side that has gone ahead inside 15 minutes in the Premier League era has gone on to win that game 63.28% of the time.
Teams that have taken a lead just before the break, by comparison, have won 70.64% of the time.
It’s a mere seven or so per cent in it, from scoring ‘too early’ to converting at a widely perceived optimum time of just prior to half-time.
Does that justify the sense of foreboding when De Bruyne is put out early doors, and Salah is miffed? It does not.
*Credit for all of the photos in this article belongs to AP Photo*
FIRST PUBLISHED: 17th January 2023
