Expected goals have long been a part of Premier League betting discourse. Still controversial with some fans, there’s no question xG is here to stay as a metric to evaluate team and player performance. It is also one of the better ways to predict future team results.
An expected goals table isn’t the be-all end-all. It can produce some odd numbers in small sample sizes, and only really becomes reliable once we’ve got at least a few weeks of matches to look at. Even then, there are qualifiers that need to be applied depending on the quality of opponents faced, injuries, and red cards.
The idea, though, is solid and it can help football betting punters. xG presents how a team has performed based on the quality of the chances created in attack and the quality of chances conceded at the other end of the pitch. In general, the larger the sample size, the closer the actual table is to the expected goals table.
Some teams are unfortunate to underperform their xG throughout a season, and others can ride some luck, as Nottingham Forest did in 2024-25, but the overall expected goal numbers generally paint a clear picture of where teams belong in the Premier League’s hierarchy.
Premier League xG Table For 2025/26:
Team | xG For | xG Against | xG difference per 90 |
Arsenal | 13.6 | 4.7 | +1.11 |
Crystal Palace | 17.1 | 10.8 | +0.79 |
Manchester City | 14.4 | 8.2 | +0.78 |
Liverpool | 13.6 | 9.2 | +0.54 |
Newcastle United | 9.8 | 5.7 | +0.52 |
Manchester United | 14.9 | 12.5 | +0.30 |
Leeds United | 10.0 | 8.3 | +0.21 |
Brighton & Hove Albion | 12.1 | 10.5 | +0.20 |
Chelsea | 12.5 | 11.9 | +0.08 |
Brentford | 10.6 | 9.9 | +0.08 |
Bournemouth | 10.4 | 10.7 | -0.04 |
Tottenham Hotspur | 8.2 | 9.0 | -0.10 |
Everton | 10.8 | 11.9 | -0.13 |
Sunderland | 7.4 | 9.5 | -0.27 |
Fulham | 7.7 | 10.7 | -0.38 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers | 6.9 | 10.0 | -0.39 |
Aston Villa | 6.3 | 10.6 | -0.54 |
Nottingham Forest | 8.7 | 14.1 | -0.67 |
West Ham United | 6.9 | 13.3 | -0.80 |
Burnley | 5.4 | 15.8 | -1.31 |
*Information accurate as of 20th October 2025*
