By the time you read this, Graham Potter may already have been relieved of his duties at Stamford Bridge after being responsible for a quite remarkable and sustained slump.
On taking charge at Chelsea, diminished from the off as a surprising choice by a club that routinely employs proven, elite fare to govern their squad of proven, elite players, Potter began his tenure brightly, unbeaten in nine.
It was a run that kept the Blues firmly in a top four chase and had them progress confidently from their Champions League group, and though nobody got carried away, it was certainly a promising opening gambit from a coach who had blazed a burning trail at Brighton.
Only then came a sudden jolting of momentum that soon enough turned to crisis.
Since forlornly watching his new side get dismantled 4-1 at the Amex at the end of October – to players and a set-up that he himself put together – Potter has presided over just two wins in 13 in the Premier League, exiting both domestic competitions along the way to Manchester City.
The performances have been disjointed, sometimes horribly so, and with the goals drying up at one end, and with clean sheets becoming a rarity at the other, it’s inevitably left the 47-year-old a short-priced favourite in the sports betting to be the next top-flight manager to be sacked.
Indeed, during the writing of this article, the BBC website has been refreshed twice already.
That’s how imminent it feels that Potter’s brief time in West London is due to come to an end following yet another loss at the weekend and should that transpire a degree of sympathy will be warranted for a manager who has been dealt all manner of bad hands, over and above the challenges that a new appointment traditionally faces.
From a reputational standpoint, as previously alluded to, Potter was very much cast from the get-go as a big fish in a small pond at Brighton, who would now be out of his depth on taking the reins at a ‘big’ club.
That the Seagulls resided two places higher than Chelsea at the time was never factored into this thinking, nor was it acknowledged that the best efforts of Potter’s three immediate predecessors at the Bridge – Tuchel, Lampard and Sarri – had all come to sticky ends, two of these supposedly imbued with the kind of managerial calibre that a big club demands.
As unfair or otherwise this playing down of Potter’s credentials was, you have to wonder if the players bought into the logic too, thus having a real effect on output and results.
Chelsea's owners continue to back Graham Potter but there is now a growing feeling that the next two games will be make or break for him. It's not just the owners' faith that is being tested either...#CFC https://t.co/oIgVbtyPqs
— Matt Law (@Matt_Law_DT) February 27, 2023
Furthermore, while it’s hard to feel sorry for any coach furnished with £323m worth of talent halfway through a campaign, it’s undeniable that great upheaval was the last thing Potter needed this January just as he was making inroads into moulding his squad.
Bringing in eight new players post-Christmas felt like a move that was in Chelsea’s long-term best interests while conversely harming the short-term goals of their manager.
Still, it’s hard to look past Chelsea’s abysmal output that at this juncture amounts to a collection of highly undesirable stats.
Since mid-October, the Blues have averaged 0.8 points per league game and if that was extended across a full season it would have seen Chelsea relegated in nine of the last ten years, finishing rock-bottom twice.
At this stage last term they were 16 points better off and all season long they have scored just 23 goals, six fewer than struggling Leeds.
It is an incoherency in attack that has produced a scant number of big chances created – just 34 – and tellingly, they have failed to convert in well over a third of their fixtures.
Such figures, when aligned to apathetic performances, means one of the best football tips for today is to back Grahan Potter to depart the capital, not of his own volition, sometime very soon and yet another refresh of the BBC homepage reveals that hasn’t happened. Not yet anyway.
Could it be therefore that club owner Todd Boehly is staying true to this word, when insisting recently that Potter’s job will be safe, regardless of whether a top four spot is secured?
More likely, it is the Blues ongoing participation in the Champions League that is currently keeping him in the job. After all, would it be the wisest strategy to dispense with a manager – and install a temporary stand-in – in the middle of a two-legged last 16 clash with Borussia Dortmund?
The moment that Chelsea exit the competition you fear for Potter because there will be nothing left to save him bar the tentative hope that a so-far failing project might ultimately come good.
And clubs that strive to compete at the highest level – and who are used to doing so – typically don’t hang their futures on tentative hope.
