Each week, Ste Tudor will cast his expert eye over the current state of the Premier League sack race - who will be the next manager to leave their position or be sacked in 2025/26?
In 2023, a detailed and depressing report by UEFA revealed that the average tenure of a manager across Europe’s top five leagues amounted to just 15 months.
That same year, there were 735 sackings in Europe’s top-flight divisions with the Premier League alone seeing 15 changes of head coach. That lofty figure focuses only on permanent switches, not the appointment of interim bosses, or managers resigning.
Incidentally, what an ironic word to use ‘permanent’ is. Just two years on, none of those 15 appointments are still in their roles.
When assessing the current roster of Premier League gaffers we find that 65% were appointed in 2024 or thereafter while three managers – Nuno Espirito Santo, Graham Potter and Ange Postecoglou - have already received their P45 a mere eight games in.
Is it any wonder therefore that football management is sometimes referred to as the most precarious job around? A lion tamer wearing Lady Gaga’s meat dress has better prospects, and more security.
What’s more, it only gets worse for the present crop because the sacking season is just around the corner, that time of the year when club chairmen collectively press the panic button in the blind hope that it doubles up as a reset.
Across the last 12 seasons, 89 Premier League managers have either been sacked or left via ‘mutual consent’ during the course of a campaign. A notable 51.6% of them had their desks cleared between mid-November and the end of February.
There are two ways of viewing this, neither of them right nor wrong, both subjective.
Should we put sentiment to one side, and the sobering acknowledgment that a man has temporarily lost his livelihood, we could perhaps admit there is some degree of logic to over half of top-flight sackings occurring in this period.
Because, even if employed that summer, a coach has had a transfer window, pre-season, numerous games and three international breaks to implement his methods and mould a team. If results are subsequently going from bad to worse it heavily suggests he is not the right fit for that club.
Alternatively, it could be opined that club owners these days are far too guilty of short-term thinking and that it typically takes a substantial amount of time to turn a team’s fortunes around.
After all, managers are very rarely appointed into a successful gig, complete with a happy changing room and players firing on every cylinder. They get the job in the first place because a team has fundamental issues that need to be addressed as priority before a new direction can be taken.
Regardless, this is the reality in which we now reside in, and furthermore there is another truth that must be recognized.
It is that a domino effect tends to occur. When one goes, another follows soon after.
With sackings taking place especially early this season that doesn’t bode well for those currently in the spotlight, their jobs very much on the line.
Premier League Manager Betting Odds:
Daniel Farke is the overwhelming football betting favourite to be the next manager sacked ahead of Eddie Howe, Scott Parker, and Marco Silva. With Leeds 16th and having taken only three of the last 15 available points, pressure is mounting on Farke as November’s international break gets underway.
Three clubs have already made managerial changes. Nottingham Forest swapped Nuno Espírito Santo for Ange Postecoglou three matches into the season, then replaced Postecoglou with Sean Dyche, after the Australian’s style of football represented too stark a change from Nuno.
West Ham fired Graham Potter to bring in Nuno and Wolves fired Vitor Pereira on Nov. 2. Wolves made the curious decision to hand Pereira a contract extension after losing the first four matches of the season. The club remain winless and without a permanent manager.
Howe’s League Woes
Consecutive road defeats to Brentford and West Ham have raised questions about Howe’s future at St. James’ Park.
Three straight wins in the Champions League should have earned Howe a bit more time, but it doesn’t get any easier after the break with the visit of Manchester City before trips to Marseille and Everton.
Newcastle’s underlying numbers are solid, at least, and expectations for this season were dampened by the long-running Alexander Isak sale over the summer.
Still, there’s a risk this gets out of hand. Newcastle only have 12 points on the board before facing City, Everton, and Spurs.
Does Farke Get Time?
Leeds are between Sunderland and Bournemouth in expected goal difference. Farke’s side are on a bad run – defeats to Burnley and Forest have been especially painful – but it’s not the worst idea to give the manager a bit more time.
The concern, though, is how many goals are being conceded. In their last six matches, Leeds haven’t kept a clean sheet and have conceded two or more goals on five occasions.
It also doesn’t seem like the right time to make a change. The opponents after the international break are Aston Villa, Manchester City, Liverpool, and Chelsea. That’s not a good way to introduce a new manager, so it’s probably worth giving Farke until the middle of December at least.
Parker’s Burnley Stint
Burnley have by far the worst expected goal difference in the Premier League at -1.39 per xGD per 90 minutes.
Crucial wins over fellow strugglers Leeds and Wolves have bought Parker a bit of time, but an agonising loss to West Ham was a major setback.
Over the next month, a home match against an impressive Crystal Palace is Burnley’s best chance of a victory.
Burnley’s hierarchy haven’t been as trigger-happy as some of the other teams down the bottom, but the club might feel like they don’t have a choice if the current trajectory continues.
Slot & Silva
A thumping at the hands of Manchester City on Sunday took Liverpool to five defeats from six Premier League matches. Arne Slot has plenty of credit in the bank after last season, but it’s not out of the question that he’s the next manager sacked if Leeds, Newcastle, and Burnley exercise patience with their gaffers.
Liverpool are, remarkably, only one point behind fourth, but the board will get twitchy if that gap grows.
Like Liverpool, Fulham have lost five of their last six Premier League matches. Silva is the third-longest-serving manager in the Premier League, so the west London club should give him some time. The threat of relegation has made plenty of clubs act rashly in these situations in the past, however.
What Is The Premier League Sack Race?
In 2023, a detailed and depressing report by UEFA revealed that the average tenure of a manager across Europe’s top five leagues amounted to just 15 months.
That same year, there were 735 sackings in Europe’s top-flight divisions with the Premier League alone seeing 15 changes of head coach. That lofty figure focuses only on permanent switches, not the appointment of interim bosses, or managers resigning.
Incidentally, what an ironic word to use ‘permanent’ is. Just two years on, none of those 15 appointments are still in their roles.
When assessing the current roster of Premier League gaffers we find that 65% were appointed in 2024 or thereafter while two managers – Nuno Espirito Santo and Graham Potter - have already received their P45 a mere seven games in.
Is it any wonder therefore that football management is sometimes referred to as the most precarious job around?
A lion tamer wearing Lady Gaga’s meat dress has better prospects, and more security.
What’s more, it only gets worse for the present crop because the sacking season is just around the corner, that time of the year when club chairmen collectively press the panic button in the blind hope that it doubles up as a reset.
How Many Premier League Managers Are Sacked?
Across the last 12 seasons, 89 Premier League managers have either been sacked or left via ‘mutual consent’ during the course of a campaign. A notable 51.6% of them had their desks cleared between mid-November and the end of February.
There are two ways of viewing this, neither of them right nor wrong, both subjective.
Should we put sentiment to one side, and the sobering acknowledgment that a man has temporarily lost his livelihood, we could perhaps admit there is some degree of logic to over half of top-flight sackings occurring in this period.
Because, even if employed that summer, a coach has had a transfer window, pre-season, numerous games and three international breaks to implement his methods and mould a team. If results are subsequently going from bad to worse it heavily suggests he is not the right fit for that club.
Alternatively, it could be opined that club owners these days are far too guilty of short-term thinking and that it typically takes a substantial amount of time to turn a team’s fortunes around.
After all, managers are very rarely appointed into a successful gig, complete with a happy changing room and players firing on every cylinder. They get the job in the first place because a team has fundamental issues that need to be addressed as priority before a new direction can be taken.
Regardless, this is the reality in which we now reside in, and furthermore there is another truth that must be recognized.
It is that a domino effect tends to occur. When one goes, another follows soon after.
With sackings taking place especially early this season that doesn’t bode well for those currently in the spotlight, their jobs very much on the line.
*Odds subject to change - prices accurate at the time of writing*
