As the United Kingdom attempts to secure a firmer footing in a post-Brexit landscape two interlinked questions loom large.
The first is whether the nation’s Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, can see out a full term in office amidst a flurry of speculation that factions within the Labour party are intent on ousting him.
Just 18 months into his Premiership, Starmer is also facing serious flak from press and the public alike for a controversial budget that included steep tax rises.
The second related query, as the temperature in Westminster continues to unseasonally soar, follows on from what would be a quite sensational early departure. Who do we suppose replaces him?
Before we assess the runners and riders in the betting however it’s worth evaluating Starmer’s current standing, to appraise the chances of him remaining at the helm until the next General Election, and possibly beyond.
Or indeed if the reported internal strife within his party – and subsequent alleged attempts to depose him – could yet lead to the 63-year-old Knight of the Realm heading for an early bath.
Could Starmer Go?
Naturally, any wager made in the ‘Next Prime Minister’ market will be honoured regardless of when a change occurs. Yet, if Starmer successfully rides out the storms that presently engulf him it amounts to a long wait.
He is not compelled to announce a General Election until August 19th, 2029.
If reports that a leadership contest was brewing last month though has any merit, then the signs are ominous for the former lawyer who repeatedly finds himself under fire from colleagues in his own party.
This past week he was openly criticised for scrapping plans to give workers day-one protection against unfair dismissal, a manifesto pledge no less.
He was also accused of complacency leading up to his first byelection last May, failing to personally visit the town of Runcorn who subsequently voted in Nigel Farage’s Reform by just six votes.
The fall-out from the recent budget saw him additionally accused of misleading the British public by painting an overly bleak picture of the nation’s financial health ahead of Autumn’s budget.
Trust has become a major issue within the Labour ranks - trust in what he says, and the direction in which he is taking the party – and, as we have borne witness to on more than one occasion when the Conservatives were in charge, strong dissatisfaction in-house never really dissipates. It can be quelled at best, but only for a while.
Indeed, as one respected political commentator, admittedly writing for a right-wing publication, put it recently: “It is official: there’s no way back now. Either Starmer quits next year, or he will be deposed."
A poll conducted by Ipsos only strengthens this argument. According to its findings Starmer is the most unpopular Prime Minister on record.
Who Could Replace Him?
It is no surprise to see Nigel Farage firmly among the favourites in the politics betting. Having positioned himself as the main opposition to Labour’s government in light of the Conservative collapse the leader of the Reform party is presently priced up at 4/1 to be the next appointed Prime Minister.
But it is important that we separate party from individuals here, because though Starmer’s situation appears precarious, the Labour party are not going anywhere, anytime soon. They will remain in power unless something unprecedented occurs.
Backing Farage therefore, in this particular market, is playing the long-game.
Elsewhere, Tory leader Kemi Badenoch is 16/1 to next walk down Downing Street, waving and smiling for the cameras, her distant odds a reflection on how far the Conservatives have fallen from the reckoning of late.
Staying with Starmer’s party brethren we find his Secretary of State for Heath, Wes Streeting, most fancied to usurp him while his Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper represents terrific value given her stature and popularity within the party.
Wes Streeting - 4/1
Growing up in a London council flat Streeting became President of Cambridge’s Student Union, his fierce intellect and urbane manner of speaking leaning naturally into a career in politics. He has said he holds a lifelong grudge against the Conservatives for ‘denigrating single parent families like mine’.
It was Streeting who was allegedly the ‘plotter’s’ first choice to challenge Starmer in the recent aborted coup and there are three reasons to believe a subsequent challenge may occur.
Firstly, the current Secretary of State for Health has made no bones about his aspirations to lead the country one day. He is additionally a familiar presence on television and radio. Lastly, compared to some of his fellow contenders below, he carries little baggage.
Angela Raynor - 11/2
The same cannot be said of Raynor, not after her resignation last September for breaching the ministerial code by paying insufficient tax on a property she owned.
Her wrongdoing was exacerbated by the fact she was Secretary of State for Housing at the time, as well as holding the position of Deputy Prime Minister.
Like Streeting, Raynor has made great stock of her working class background, her inspirational story serving her well. Her political acumen too is beyond repute.
It’s trust that has become a major issue now.
Ed Miliband - 7/1
The former Leader of the Opposition resigned following Labour’s 2015 General Election defeat but has since rebuilt his reputation and career, first from the back benches, then as part of Starmer’s shadow cabinet.
In 2024 he was appointed as Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero and his left-wing stance on almost every matter could chime with the Labour faithful.
Crucially, he has the experience and gravitas to put his views across well.
Shabana Mahmood - 8/1
Policies espoused by the Home Secretary on the thorny subject of immigration have been welcomed by the right-leaning factions of the Labour party as well as the right-wing press.
The latter’s support is highly pertinent with immigration set to once again become one of the determining factors of the next general election.
Having quickly accrued a ‘hard’ image, Mahmood will need to soften the edges if she is to appeal to a broader demographic.
Andy Burnham - 12/1
As Mayor of Greater Manchester, Burnham is not actually an elected MP at present but that could swiftly change should he run in a forthcoming byelection as part of Mainstream, an independent network associated with the Labour party.
The 55-year-old has twice before campaigned for the party leadership, first losing to Ed Miliband in 2010, then Jeremy Corbyn five years later.
Could it be third time lucky for one of the savviest operators in British politics?
Yvette Cooper - 14/1
Vastly experienced and widely viewed as a safe pair of hands, Cooper values substance over style, sense over political manoeuvrings.
It is an approach she has applied to numerous roles within Labour, from Secretary of State for Work and Pensions under Gordon Brown to Home Secretary under Starmer.
A recent reshuffle saw her appointed Foreign Secretary. Cooper is supremely well qualified for the top job but a notable lack of momentum behind her is telling.
