Not many teams can be feeling better than Manchester City as they tuck into whatever footballers have for their Christmas meal. One such team might just be Newcastle United - the two will go up against each other on Wednesday evening.

The Magpies had one point in nine league matches when they went to the London Stadium to face an in-form West Ham. Rafael Benitez’s side collected an improbable three points with a blend of fortune and improvement.

The attack was unleashed, and their direct game found holes in the Hammers’ back line. The victory pulled the northeast club away from the peril of the bottom three, though they could be back there by the time they kick-off on December 27th.

Such joy on the 23rd will have been wiped out when the Magpies took a peek at their fixture list, mind.

Manchester City arrive at St James’ Park on a record-breaking 17-match winning streak. Pep Guardiola’s side have dropped just two points all season, and are playing football better than we have ever seen in this country. Even when the Spaniard has rotated, City look otherworldly. It’s like they are playing a different game, and no team has yet found a formula to frustrate the champions elect.

Perhaps most remarkable of all has been City’s defence. It is not fortune that they have concede just 12 this season. It begins with a high press, and ends with the superb Ederson sweeping and leaping to smother any danger.

Their expected goals against are a smidgen under 12, which is four goals superior to the next best team. Even with the Magpies’ offensive success against West Ham, the 23/25 price on Newcastle to fail to score is a good one.

It’s at this point that I would usually turn to the goal scoring markets. The trouble with City is, they could come from almost anywhere. Guardiola’s rotation makes it even more perilous, especially during this frankly insane schedule. The one that might be worth a shot is Leroy Sane to score anytime at 13/10, but that’s still quite a risk given their options.

As with my piece on Liverpool vs Swansea, it would be great to see some festive cheer for the underdogs. Newcastle, though, like Swansea, stand almost no chance in my mind. It would take a red card and a freaky catalogue of events for the visitors to leave with anything other than three points.

Other records could yet tumble on this extraordinary streak. Away from those, City to score over 2.5 goals at 5/6 is what should be getting all your attention. Despite victory at the London Stadium, Benitez’s side were vulnerable at the back. Any vulnerability will be brutally exposed by David Silva and Kevin de Bruyne.

Newcastle’s relegation will not be decided in matches like this, and the title is as good as in Guardiola’s hands. Weirdly, there’s not too much riding on their clash at St James’. Still, I’m sure you’ll all be tuning in just for the show that is Manchester City.

TIP: Manchester City to win 3-0 @ 13/2

*Odds subject to change - correct at time of writing*

December 27, 2017
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Sam is a sports tipster, specialising in the Premier League and Champions League.

He covers most sports, including cricket and Formula One. Sam particularly enjoys those on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean – notably MLB and NBA.

Watching, writing and talking about sports betting takes up most of his time, whether that is for a day out at T20 Finals Day or a long night of basketball.

Having been writing for several years, Sam has been working with 888Sport since 2016, contributing multiple articles per week to the blog.

Sam Cox

Manchester United are in a bad spell, whatever Jose Mourinho claims. The self-proclaimed ‘Special One’ is in a particularly spiky mood lately.

Southampton, though, are in a rut of their own. Their thrashing at Wembley on Boxing Day was a lowest point of their season, and Mauricio Pellegrino is under severe pressure to turn things around. As of December 27th, Saints are just two points above the bottom three. Since a three-match unbeaten run in October, they have won one match.

This pre-New-Year’s-Eve clash is terribly timed for the visitors. Well, it should be. Manchester United are traditionally a dangerous wounded animal, as is Mourinho. The trouble is, there are inklings of meltdown at Old Trafford. From calling his players ‘childish’ to hilariously bemoaning his lack of funds, Mourinho is in dangerous territory.

The superiority of Manchester City is hurting Mourinho. Their last three matches have seen them sandwich a defeat to Bristol City with draws to Leicester and Burnley. By kick-off with Southampton, United could be 15 points off Manchester City, and more importantly, will be six ahead of fifth-place Tottenham. The title is out of reach, falling out of the top four remains a realistic prospect.

Aside from his increasingly comical rants to the press, Mourinho is left with dilemmas ahead of this one. He fielded Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Romelu Lukaku from the start against Burnley. It did not go well. Does he try it again? Does he change system? Is it time to give Lukaku a rest?

I cannot answer those for you, unfortunately. What we do know, though, is that Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Jesse Lingard were excellent when they came on. Lingard is arguably United’s most important player at the moment, such is the unselfish work he does off-the-ball. The 6/1 on the England international to open the scoring is value.

United were good in the second half to come back from two down to Burnley. This was not some great brave tactic, however. There was no choice other than all-out attack. It would be a mistake to expect such front-foot, attacking football in this clash from the off. For that reason, I really like 11/10 on under 2.5 goals.

Backing that does rely on Southampton returning to defensive form of sorts. Their expected goals against are eighth best in the league, but they were a disaster at the back against Spurs. Southampton are a better side than form suggests, and they should be comfortably safe this season. This could be the match that ends their extended blip.

There’s a surprising amount on the line in this one. Another performance like the first hour against Spurs, and Pellegrino will be close to departing. Failure to win – and possibly falling to third – might just see Mourinho combust in his post-match media duties.

I saw enough in Southampton’s performance after the substitutions against Spurs to believe they can extend this torrid run for United. Mourinho claims they deserved to score more in their last few games, but their defence is vulnerable again, and the attack is dysfunctional. The 19/5 price on a draw is a very good one

TIP: Match to be drawn 1-1 @ 8/1

*Odds subject to change - correct at time of writing*

December 27, 2017
Body

Sam is a sports tipster, specialising in the Premier League and Champions League.

He covers most sports, including cricket and Formula One. Sam particularly enjoys those on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean – notably MLB and NBA.

Watching, writing and talking about sports betting takes up most of his time, whether that is for a day out at T20 Finals Day or a long night of basketball.

Having been writing for several years, Sam has been working with 888Sport since 2016, contributing multiple articles per week to the blog.

Sam Cox