The Tolworth Hurdle is a good pointer to some of the novice events at the Cheltenham Festival and has often been a stepping stone to greater things over the years.

The contest is run at Sandown Park over a distance of 2 miles and 110 yards with a generous first prize of almost £30,000

The race was abandoned in 2009 & 2010 and in 2014 was rescheduled to Kempton.

Recent winners of the Tolworth include Finian’s Oscar, Yorkhill and L’ami Serge and back in the day, even Desert Orchid won it.

Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls have pretty much monopolised the race in recent years, with Nicholls winning the race on four occasions since 2000, while Henderson has saddled the winner four times in the last seven years.

Runner-by-runner guide

Western Ryder

Two miles on soft ground should suit the Warren Greatrex trained six-year-old and the form of his Cheltenham win looks solid with the likes of Lalor in behind him.

Western Ryder, who was fifth in the Champion Bumper last term, is a general 20/1 chance for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle and also 20/1 for the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham in March.

Whatswrongwithyou

Whatswrongwithyou looks to be the stable third-string here but it would be very dangerous to dismiss him out of hand.

Although his future appears to be over the larger obstacles this point-to-point and bumper winner has schooled well over the smaller obstacles at home and went well on his first appearance of the season at Sandown.

Sussex Ranger

Two wins from two starts already this season and probably a horse on the upgrade.  A winner on soft ground on the flat, the Gary Moore trained four-year-old should see the youngster in good stead for predicted going on Saturday.

He runs here in preference to the Future Champions Finale Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow.

We Have A Dream

Nicky Henderson’s We Have A Dream is the 11/10 favourite for the feature hurdle race at Chepstow on Saturday but there has been sustained support all week for him in the Tolworth.

Winner of the Summit Juvenile Hurdle last time out the four-year-old looks like another exciting prospect for his owners.

The Russian Doyen

The Russian Doyen comes into the race on the back of a win at Exeter in December.  

The runner-up in that race has since won but it remains to be seen whether Colin Tizzard’s gelding has the necessary class to take this feature.

Summerville Boy

Summerville Boy was second to the highly regarded Slate House at Cheltenham this season then was well held on his return to the venue by Western Ryder.

Tom George's runner will need to step up considerably on those two defeats to figure here.

Dream Brother

Won an Irish point-to-point race at Belclare some 272 days ago and comes into the race a total unknown quantity.

It would come as a major shock if this horse can win a race of this magnitude on its British debut.

Kalashnikov

Hailing from the Amy Murphy yard, this progressive gelding easily beat Al Shahir at Wetherby first time up in the soft ground before going on to beat Irish Prophecy at Doncaster last month.  

Talked about as a potential Supreme Novices’ Hurdle contender, Murphy will be keeping a close eye on the weather this weekend before committing him to run.

Mont Des Avaloirs

The Paul Nicholls trained Mont Des Avaloirs fell on his hurdles debut at Wincanton in November with the race at this mercy. That mishap was firmly put behind him next time up as he scored by three lengths over Midnight Shadow at Aintree in December.

This is a step up again in class but his trainer is no stranger to landing this trophy.

Claimantakinforgan

Third in last season's Champion Bumper at Cheltenham, Nicky Henderson's runner has won each of his two starts over hurdles, most recently scoring in the Grade Two Supreme Trial at Ascot.

However at the time of writing this preview news is filtering through that Claimantakinforgan appears to be an increasingly unlikely runner in the Tolworth Hurdle with Henderson reluctant to run his novice on heavy ground.

Claimantakinforgan is currently the 8/1 clear favourite for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.

Conclusion

With the participation of some of the runners in doubt it will probably be more prudent to save your money until Saturday morning until the final field is decided.

Unfortunately one of the pitfalls of ante-post punting in the depths of winter is that race conditions and a variety of other circumstances often conspire against us.

Claimantakinforgan is the most likely winner of the race should he line up, but if he does not then the form choice has to be Western Ryder.

*Odds subject to change - correct at time of writing*

The race takes place over three miles, five and a half furlongs and over 22 fences, probably on soft/heavy going, and will test the stamina reserves of all the contenders. There will be no hiding place for non-stayers.

The Welsh Grand National is often a stepping stone to Aintree Grand National glory, not always necessarily in the same calendar year, but it’s certainly a race that tests a horse’s credentials for taking on Merseyside’s blue riband event.

The Welsh National roll of honour includes Aintree Grand National winners, the likes of Corbiere in 1982, Earth Summit in 1997, Bindaree in 2003 and Silver Birch in 2004 as well as Cheltenham Gold Cup winners - Burrough Hill Lad in 1983, Cool Ground in 1990, Master Oats in 1994 and Synchronised in 2010. It’s a veritable who’s who of Chasing greats.

Here is a look back at the last ten years of trends and statistics on the Welsh marathon race.

Age (wins)

6-y-o (1), 7-y-o (3), 8-y-o (5), 11-y-o (1).

Weight (wins)

10st 10lb+ (4) 10st 9lb or under (6)

It is worth noting that since the turn of the millennium all six Welsh Grand Nationals that have been run on heavy going have been won by horses carrying 10st 9lbs or less.

Previous form

• 10/10 winners ran in the last 55 days
• 9/10 winners finished in the first four last time out

• 9/10 winners won over 3m+ at a left-handed track
• 9/10 winners had finished in the first three in a Listed or Graded Chase

Trainer success (with runners this year)

R.Lee/K.Lee (2), P.Nicholls (1), V.Williams (1), P.Hobbs (1), M.Scudamore (1), C.Tizzard (1).

Starting Price

Last year Native River (11/4f) was a rare winning favourite. Silver Birch (100/30f) in 2004 was the last winning favourite prior to that.

Interesting contenders

Vicente (current odds 14/1)

With five horses above him taken out of Wednesday’s race, the Paul Nicholls-trained Scottish National winner will have to shoulder the welter burden of 11st 12lb if taking up his entry.

Rock the Kasbah (current odds 8/1)

The seven-year-old has enjoyed a nice break since his comeback win at Chepstow and his liking for the course could be a crucial factor. Rock The Kasbah can boast form figures of 22111 at the Welsh track.

He has given every indication that he'll stay, and the going conditions should not bother him at all.

Beware The Bear (current odds 7/1)

Nicky Henderson’s improving stayer Beware The Bear has been the clear favourite in most lists for the Welsh National after overcoming a slipping saddle to win Newcastle's Rehearsal Chase off a mark of 145.

Henderson has never won the Welsh Grand National (or any National for that matter) and does not claim to be a fan of it due to the conditions that usually prevail on the day.

These are worrying statistics for any ante-post punter but he still remains strong in the market.

Chase The Spud (current odds 8/1)

Fergal O'Brien's improving staying chaser Chase The Spud is a popular pick for the race. The nine-year-old was last seen winning at Haydock on Betfair Chase day, staying on dourly in testing conditions to record his fourth chase victory.

One of those four victories happened to be the Midlands Grand National which he won back in March.

O'Brien reports Chase The Spud to have taken those Haydock exertions well and is looking forward to sending him across to Chepstow to contest yet another National.

Ask The Weatherman (current odds 12/1)

Former pointer Ask The Weatherman arrives at the Welsh National following a gusty win under top weight in a handicap chase at Exeter.

The eight-year-old carried 12st 4lb to victory to score by ¾ of a length, continuing an excellent start to the licensed trainer's career for Jack Barber.

Ask The Weatherman won open point-to-points at Larkhill and Trebudannon last season, plus a hunters' chase at Wincanton, but in the St James's Place Foxhunter Chase at the Cheltenham Festival he floundered and could do no better than seventh of the 23 runners.

Barber put that performance down to the ground being too quick for him that day and he will certainly get conditions more to his liking on Wednesday.

Mysteree (current odds 12/1)

The nine-year-old makes his first start of the season in the Grade Three contest which his trainer Michael Scudamore won in 2012 with Monbeg Dude.

Winner of the Eider Chase on his penultimate outing, the former Lucinda Russell-trained gelding was last seen finishing second to Chase The Spud in the Midlands National at Uttoxeter in March.

The horse has a good record fresh and stays all day in the going.

Folsom Blue (current odds 12/1)

Placed in an Irish National during his time with Mouse Morris, the 10-year-old has “warmed up” for a tilt at this Welsh marathon by running in two hurdles races for his new trainer Gordon Elliott.

A change of scenery appears to have sparked some new vigour into the gelding and Elliott has proved he is very astute at placing his runners in the right races.

Final Nudge (current odds 12/1)

The David Dennis trained Final Nudge appeared to be going extremely well when coming down four out in the Midlands National last year and he also ran a massive race in the Badger Ales on his seasonal return.

This race has been on the cards for the eight-year-old for some time.

Raz De Maree (current odds 16/1)

The twelve-year-old ran a superb race to finish second to Native River in the Chepstow showpiece twelve months ago and is only 1lb higher this year. He geared up for another tilt at the race by running in a 3m handicap hurdle at Southwell.

Raz De Maree has won the Cork National twice, the Munster National and has been runner-up in both the Welsh National and the Midlands National.

As he approaches his thirteenth birthday he still appears to be a willing partner in these distance handicaps.

888sport suggests: Raz De Maree (E/W)

*Odds subject to change - correct at time of writing*

Split by a mere two points, Brighton and Bournemouth’s contrasting starts to the season have met in the (lower) middle of the Premier League. The New Year’s Day lunchtime hosts started well, but their run of one win in 10 league matches has left Chris Hughton’s side teetering.

Bournemouth, meanwhile, had a torrid start. The Cherries have had brief relief by taking four points from their last two matches. The last gasp win over Everton was needed and brought an end to a nine-match winless run. Eddie Howe might just see that as a springboard to find a little comfort.

It’s probably a good time to visit Brighton. The Seagulls are still struggling in the final third, and sit in the bottom three on expected goals (per understat). Additions to their frontline will almost certainly come in January, so Bournemouth are fortunate to get their trip to the Amex in before any new names appear.

Howe’s team are not the same as they were last season. Where Joshua King was a sensation early in 2017, their attack is short of potency. Jermain Defoe has struggled at times this season, and defensive fragility remains.

Pair that with Brighton’s limitations going forward, and under 2.5 goals looks a worthwhile pick. Hughton is a pragmatic manager at the best of times, but a lack of creativity forces the south coast side to prioritise defence. It has worked for the most part, putting them in the top half of the expected goals against table.

At 11/20, the price on under 2.5 is on the short side. I still would consider it, though, as Brighton have failed to score in five of their last six.

As you have probably guessed, this match does not look like a good one for the neutral. Hughton has his Brighton side well-drilled, and will set out to avoid defeat first. Unfortunately, efficiency seldom makes for aesthetically-pleasing football. This match is not going to shake you out of your New Year’s Day hangover, unfortunately.

If there are going to be any goals in this at all, then Pascal Gross to score at 21/5 is certainly the value pick from both teams. It’s far from a nailed-on thing, but the German is very likely to be involved if the hosts do create anything meaningful.

I am going to sit on the fence here. It would be great to see a thriller to start the Premier League’s 2018 adventures, but we will have to wait for one of the later kick-offs for such a match. A point is acceptable for Bournemouth, and it’s no disaster for Brighton, who would keep themselves above the Cherries in the table as they await attacking reinforcement.

The highlight of this might be how people react to it on Twitter. I am expecting a lot of snoring GIFs, and a fair bit of whining that there haven’t been any goals.

Of course, I am hoping that I am hideously wrong. So wrong that we watch one of the best matches of all time. It would be reckless to tip that, though.

TIP: Match to finish 0-0 @ 13/2

*Odds subject to change - correct at time of writing*