So, the final game week of the season is upon us, and we still have one prevailing tip to push you to mini-league success. Your focus should be fixed on those teams with something to play for.

The data over the previous five seasons suggests that these sides tend to score more and concede less than their flip flop-wearing counterparts, whose minds may have drifted off to sunnier climes.

Games on the final day can often be highly anomalous big score fixtures usually favouring those battling for points, although the exception tends to be those fighting it out at the bottom end of the table.

Their output is much less assured, so stick with targeting teams with a proven attack.

FPL GW38 Transfer Tips:

The Good

Tottenham and Arsenal

Both sides go into their final games needing a win to secure a Champions League qualification spot, although granted, Arsenal are down on the canvas, facing a ten count with the betting markets making Spurs massive favourites.

But, while there's still a mathematical chance, the Gunners will do everything they can to ensure Tottenham earn their place at the top table.

Prior to the Newcastle game, Mikel Arteta's side had the fourth best-attacking data over the previous six. On the other hand, Spurs have gone about their business slightly differently, building their final push on a solid foundation with the best xG conceded and least goals against.

However, investment in the Spurs' attack is essential with a trip to Norwich on the final day. Heung-Min Son and/or Harry Kane should be serious considerations, and Bukayo Saka will be looking to end the season positively and right the wrongs of Monday night.

In defence, and despite their injuries, Tottenham assets appear to be the better to own, with Ben Davies or Eric Dier priced very competitively.

FPL Points Predictor Tool

Liverpool and Manchester City

The race for the title is still on, thanks to West Ham, who did their utmost to spoil the City party on Sunday.

The Citizens were only able to scrape a 2-2 draw at the London Stadium, leaving the door for first place slightly ajar, which means that both teams still have plenty to play for on Sunday, and that should see Messrs.

Pep and Klopp, name really strong sides in the hope of getting the job done. Joao Cancelo and Trent Alexander-Arnold are essential, plus in my opinion, you must own Kevin De Bruyne, who has been one of the most consistent performers of 2022.

In attack, the Reds are more settled, with Luis Diaz getting the nod based on the assumption that Mohamed Salah is not risked.

The Colombian is next best in terms of attacking data, although many, I suspect, will see an easy switch to Sadio Mane. Oleksandr Zinchenko also offers a cheap, dependable way into the City backline.

Brentford and Crystal Palace

Outside of the big teams, I have pinpointed Brentford and Crystal Palace as having great final day matches. These two teams have been in excellent form, and their opponents look as if their minds are elsewhere.  

The Eagles host Manchester United, with Patrick Viera targeting their highest ever Premier League finish by bettering their tenth place in 2014/15.

Palace are given a 51 per cent chance of victory, while defensively, they are amongst the best over the last six matches with the third-best goals-against tally that almost matches their xG conceded data.

In contrast, United have some of the worst numbers over the same period, conceding 14 goals.  

Brentford also go into the final weekend with some attractive attacking stats, but the excitement comes from the fact that they are playing Leeds.

The latter continues to have some of the worst defensive numbers in the league, sitting 16th for xG conceded. Leeds have injury and suspension problems, and Jesse Marsch will not be relishing the trip to the Community Stadium.

The Bad...


The Blues have a fantastic GW38 fixture, but their lack of consistency recently, coupled with uncertainty over starters, makes me wary.

I do not doubt that Chelsea will get a comfortable win against Watford, but the issue could be another sloppy mistake that sees them lose another clean sheet.

The team sit in ninth for xG conceded over the last six averaging over one goal against per 90. These were also in similarly easy fixtures.

With a Champions League place assured, plus the dejection of another penalty shootout loss to Liverpool, there is no need to push or risk players unnecessarily.

There is a possibility of high rotation with the Blues playing on Thursday evening, and therefore, given their premium price, I'm happy to leave their assets alone.  

Leicester City

Throughout the season, I have been highly critical of the team for their lack of output, given the quality of players they possess. They managed to give the already relegated Watford a schooling last weekend.

Still, I am not reading too much into that, and it wouldn't surprise me if Brendan Rodgers makes several changes following the game at Stamford Bridge on Thursday.

The Foxes have lacked consistency, and their underlying numbers continue to be poor for the price point of the team.

Recently, their high xG conceded and low xG attacking data in relatively good games concerns me. I feel my money would be more wisely invested elsewhere, especially if I was on an FPL free hit.

Best FPL Tips This Week:

FIRST PUBLISHED: 16th August 2021

About the Author
Ben Dinnery Football Expert

Ben Dinnery is the founder of Premier Injuries, a website used to track and record injury data for the British Premier League.

Described by The Telegraph as the “country’s leading data injury analyst,” Ben provides statistic insight and data to a host of broadsheet outlets and some of the world’s leading media organisations.

A regular contributor on talkSPORT radio and BBC Radio 5 Live, Ben’s data is published globally through his work with Sky Sports, NBC Sports and ESPN plus a host of other leading media broadcasters.