As the United Kingdom attempts to secure a firmer footing in a post-Brexit landscape two interlinked questions loom large.

The first is whether the nation’s Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, can see out a full term in office amidst a flurry of speculation that factions within the Labour party are intent on ousting him.

Just 18 months into his Premiership, Starmer is also facing serious flak from press and the public alike for a controversial budget that included steep tax rises.

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The second related query, as the temperature in Westminster continues to unseasonally soar, follows on from what would be a quite sensational early departure. Who do we suppose replaces him?

Before we assess the runners and riders in the betting however it’s worth evaluating Starmer’s current standing, to appraise the chances of him remaining at the helm until the next General Election, and possibly beyond.

Or indeed if the reported internal strife within his party – and subsequent alleged attempts to depose him – could yet lead to the 63-year-old Knight of the Realm heading for an early bath.

Could Starmer Go?

Naturally, any wager made in the ‘Next Prime Minister’ market will be honoured regardless of when a change occurs. Yet, if Starmer successfully rides out the storms that presently engulf him it amounts to a long wait.

He is not compelled to announce a General Election until August 19th, 2029.

If reports that a leadership contest was brewing last month though has any merit, then the signs are ominous for the former lawyer who repeatedly finds himself under fire from colleagues in his own party.

This past week he was openly criticised for scrapping plans to give workers day-one protection against unfair dismissal, a manifesto pledge no less.

He was also accused of complacency leading up to his first byelection last May, failing to personally visit the town of Runcorn who subsequently voted in Nigel Farage’s Reform by just six votes.

The fall-out from the recent budget saw him additionally accused of misleading the British public by painting an overly bleak picture of the nation’s financial health ahead of Autumn’s budget.

Trust has become a major issue within the Labour ranks - trust in what he says, and the direction in which he is taking the party – and, as we have borne witness to on more than one occasion when the Conservatives were in charge, strong dissatisfaction in-house never really dissipates. It can be quelled at best, but only for a while.

Indeed, as one respected political commentator, admittedly writing for a right-wing publication, put it recently: “It is official: there’s no way back now. Either Starmer quits next year, or he will be deposed."

A poll conducted by Ipsos only strengthens this argument. According to its findings Starmer is the most unpopular Prime Minister on record.

Who Could Replace Him?

It is no surprise to see Nigel Farage firmly among the favourites in the politics betting. Having positioned himself as the main opposition to Labour’s government in light of the Conservative collapse the leader of the Reform party is presently priced up at 4/1 to be the next appointed Prime Minister.

But it is important that we separate party from individuals here, because though Starmer’s situation appears precarious, the Labour party are not going anywhere, anytime soon. They will remain in power unless something unprecedented occurs.

Backing Farage therefore, in this particular market, is playing the long-game.

Elsewhere, Tory leader Kemi Badenoch is 16/1 to next walk down Downing Street, waving and smiling for the cameras, her distant odds a reflection on how far the Conservatives have fallen from the reckoning of late.

Staying with Starmer’s party brethren we find his Secretary of State for Heath, Wes Streeting, most fancied to usurp him while his Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper represents terrific value given her stature and popularity within the party.

Wes Streeting - 4/1

Growing up in a London council flat Streeting became President of Cambridge’s Student Union, his fierce intellect and urbane manner of speaking leaning naturally into a career in politics. He has said he holds a lifelong grudge against the Conservatives for ‘denigrating single parent families like mine’.

It was Streeting who was allegedly the ‘plotter’s’ first choice to challenge Starmer in the recent aborted coup and there are three reasons to believe a subsequent challenge may occur.

Firstly, the current Secretary of State for Health has made no bones about his aspirations to lead the country one day. He is additionally a familiar presence on television and radio. Lastly, compared to some of his fellow contenders below, he carries little baggage.

Angela Raynor - 11/2

The same cannot be said of Raynor, not after her resignation last September for breaching the ministerial code by paying insufficient tax on a property she owned.

Her wrongdoing was exacerbated by the fact she was Secretary of State for Housing at the time, as well as holding the position of Deputy Prime Minister.

Like Streeting, Raynor has made great stock of her working class background, her inspirational story serving her well. Her political acumen too is beyond repute.

It’s trust that has become a major issue now.

Ed Miliband - 7/1

The former Leader of the Opposition resigned following Labour’s 2015 General Election defeat but has since rebuilt his reputation and career, first from the back benches, then as part of Starmer’s shadow cabinet.

In 2024 he was appointed as Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero and his left-wing stance on almost every matter could chime with the Labour faithful.

Crucially, he has the experience and gravitas to put his views across well.

Shabana Mahmood - 8/1

Policies espoused by the Home Secretary on the thorny subject of immigration have been welcomed by the right-leaning factions of the Labour party as well as the right-wing press.

The latter’s support is highly pertinent with immigration set to once again become one of the determining factors of the next general election.

Having quickly accrued a ‘hard’ image, Mahmood will need to soften the edges if she is to appeal to a broader demographic.

Andy Burnham - 12/1

As Mayor of Greater Manchester, Burnham is not actually an elected MP at present but that could swiftly change should he run in a forthcoming byelection as part of Mainstream, an independent network associated with the Labour party.

The 55-year-old has twice before campaigned for the party leadership, first losing to Ed Miliband in 2010, then Jeremy Corbyn five years later.

Could it be third time lucky for one of the savviest operators in British politics?

Yvette Cooper - 14/1

Vastly experienced and widely viewed as a safe pair of hands, Cooper values substance over style, sense over political manoeuvrings.

It is an approach she has applied to numerous roles within Labour, from Secretary of State for Work and Pensions under Gordon Brown to Home Secretary under Starmer.

A recent reshuffle saw her appointed Foreign Secretary. Cooper is supremely well qualified for the top job but a notable lack of momentum behind her is telling. 

Unexpected longshot victories at the Cheltenham Festival are very rare, given the high level of competition and the fact that nearly every single odds complier knows the form of all of the participants inside out – or do they?

It appears that in the last 75 years of racing at The Festival, the bookies have only got it drastically wrong on three occasions – offering odds of 100/1 about the winner in the horse racing betting.

Here are the stories behind those three 100/1 Cheltenham Festival victories:

Norton’s Coin (1990 Cheltenham Gold Cup)

In 1989, a Carmarthen dairy farmer paid scant regard to the form book with his 100-1 outsider, Norton's Coin - a horse that nobody was mentioning in Cheltenham Festival ante-post tips.

Sirrell Griffiths had just two horses in training at the time and used to ride out Norton’s Coin himself. His own administrative error meant that Griffiths was too late to enter Norton’s Coin for one of the handicap chases at the Festival, so he entered him into the Gold Cup instead.

The official Cheltenham racecard on Friday 15 March, 1990 read as follows underneath Norton Coin’s name: "More a candidate for last than first".

After milking his cows in the morning, Griffiths drove his chestnut gelding to Cheltenham himself. All the Cheltenham Gold Cup talk was centered on Desert Orchid who was back at Prestbury Park to defend his title.

As the blue-riband race progressed Griffiths started to believe in his horse. "He kept getting a bit closer and a bit closer all the time and I could see before the last that he was going to win if he cleared it," said Griffiths.  

As Desert Orchid faded, Graham McCourt took Norton's Coin to the front, 50 yards from the line, for a three-quarters-of-a-length victory over Toby Tobias, with Desert Orchid another four lengths away in third.  

It was a giant killing of epic proportions and at 100-1, Norton’s Coin is still the longest priced winner ever of the Gold Cup. As a fan of the underdog myself, I’m always looking for another Norton’s Coin inspired victory to make me feel all warm and fuzzy inside.

Poniros (2025 Triumph Hurdle)

A horse that had won on the Flat for Ralph Beckett in 2024 and was the beaten sports betting favourite for the Cambridgeshire, caused an almighty upset when he unexpectedly landed the 2025 renewal of the Triumph Hurdle.

In his first public start over hurdles, Poniros got up to defeat Lulamba by a neck with another three-quarters of a length back to 5-4 favourite East India Dock in third.

Having been in attendance myself for the opener on Gold Cup Day, I hurriedly skimmed through the colours in my racecard as “that horse in blue” nabbed my selection Lulamba right on the line – “who exactly was that horse?”, I thought to myself.

Trained by Willie Mullins, the Golden Horn-gelding Poniros was sporting the well-known blue colours of Tony Bloom and became the joint-longest priced horse to score at The Festival in the modern era alongside fellow 100-1 chances Nortons Coin (1990) and Hipparchus (1954),

Hipparchus (1954 Grand Annual Handicap Chase)

A five-year-old horse called Hipparchus won the Grand Annual at record odds of 100/1, making it the longest-priced post-war winner of the Grand Annual and the joint-longest priced winner in the modern era alongside Norton’s Coin and Poniros. 

For those punters who tend to have just an annual interest in the Festival action, the temptation when racing at Cheltenham is to simply group a few of the odds-on fancies into a multiple bet, and hope that the favourites will oblige on the course.

However this “blind back and hope” tactic is riddled with pitfalls, as odds-on favourites get turned over at The Festival more than you think. The Champion Chase, in particular, has been described as a punting "graveyard”, with only one odds-on favourite winning the race in the last decade.

In the last 20 years, just 27 of the 53 odds-on favourites at the Cheltenham Festival have prevailed, which is only just over half. Those are pretty woeful statistics to be honest.

Beaten odds-on favourites in the Cheltenham horse racing betting 2025 were: Majborough 1/2 (Arkle Chase), Constitution Hill 1/2 (Champion Hurdle), Ballyburn 4/7 (Brown Advisory Novices' Chase), Jonbon 5/6 (Champion Chase) and Galopin Des Champs 8/13 (Gold Cup).

Notable losing odds-on favourites in the last five years:

• 2025 Champion Hurdle: Constitution Hill (SP 1/2) - Fell
• 2025 Brown Advisory Novices Chase: Ballyburn (SP 4/7) - 5th
• 2025 Queen Mother Champion Chase: Jonbon (SP 5/6) - 2nd
• 2025 Arkle Novices Chase: Majborough (SP 1/2) - 2nd
• 2024 Queen Mother Champion Chase: El Fabiolo (SP 1/2) - PU
• 2023 Turners Novices Chase: Mighty Potter (SP 4/6) - 3rd
• 2022 Turners Novices Chase: Galopin Des Champs (SP 5/6) - Fell
• 2022 Queen Mother Champion Chase: Shishkin (SP 5/6) - PU
• 2021 Marsh Novices Chase: Envoi Allen (SP 4/9) - Fell
• 2021 Champion Bumper: Kilcruit (SP 10/11) - 2nd
• 2021 Queen Mother Champion Chase: Chacun Pour Soi (SP 8/13) - 3rd
• 2021 Mares Hurdle: Concertista (SP 10/11) - 2nd
• 2020 Stayers Hurdle: Paisley Park (SP 4/6) - 7th

Shock Results At The 2025 Cheltenham Festival

Constitution Hill (1/2 Fav) – Champion Hurdle

Constitution Hill, trained by Nicky Henderson, had recovered from numerous health issues since his triumph two years ago to go into the race unbeaten in ten starts.

He was sent off a shade of odds-on, with his fall at the fifth hurdle estimated to have saved the bookmakers a multi-million payout.

Jonbon (5/6 Fav) – Champion Chase

The  5/6 sports betting favourite Jonbon effectively ended his chances with a bad mistake at the ninth fence, with the race developing into a duel between Marine Nationale and Quilixos.

When the latter fell at the last, Marine Nationale was left clear to romp home by 18 lengths from a staying on Jonbon.

Majborough (1/2 Fav) – Arkle Chase  

Jango Baie stormed up the hill in sensational fashion to upset 1/2 favourite Majborough and land the Arkle Chase.

After a mistake at the penultimate fence, Majborough appeared to be in control of the concluding sprint, until a galvanised Jango Baie emerged from virtually nowhere and surged ahead at the last to win.

As the Cheltenham ante-post betting markets begin to take shape over the next few months, will you be a player or a layer of the 2026 Cheltenham Festival odds-on favourites? 

Each week, Ste Tudor will cast his expert eye over the current state of the Premier League sack race - who will be the next manager to leave their position or be sacked in 2025/26?

In 2023, a detailed and depressing report by UEFA revealed that the average tenure of a manager across Europe’s top five leagues amounted to just 15 months.

That same year, there were 735 sackings in Europe’s top-flight divisions with the Premier League alone seeing 15 changes of head coach. That lofty figure focuses only on permanent switches, not the appointment of interim bosses, or managers resigning.

Incidentally, what an ironic word to use ‘permanent’ is. Just two years on, none of those 15 appointments are still in their roles.

When assessing the current roster of Premier League gaffers we find that 65% were appointed in 2024 or thereafter while three managers – Nuno Espirito Santo, Graham Potter and Ange Postecoglou - have already received their P45 a mere eight games in.

Is it any wonder therefore that football management is sometimes referred to as the most precarious job around? A lion tamer wearing Lady Gaga’s meat dress has better prospects, and more security.

What’s more, it only gets worse for the present crop because the sacking season is just around the corner, that time of the year when club chairmen collectively press the panic button in the blind hope that it doubles up as a reset.

Across the last 12 seasons, 89 Premier League managers have either been sacked or left via ‘mutual consent’ during the course of a campaign. A notable 51.6% of them had their desks cleared between mid-November and the end of February.

There are two ways of viewing this, neither of them right nor wrong, both subjective.

Should we put sentiment to one side, and the sobering acknowledgment that a man has temporarily lost his livelihood, we could perhaps admit there is some degree of logic to over half of top-flight sackings occurring in this period.

Because, even if employed that summer, a coach has had a transfer window, pre-season, numerous games and three international breaks to implement his methods and mould a team. If results are subsequently going from bad to worse it heavily suggests he is not the right fit for that club.

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Alternatively, it could be opined that club owners these days are far too guilty of short-term thinking and that it typically takes a substantial amount of time to turn a team’s fortunes around.

After all, managers are very rarely appointed into a successful gig, complete with a happy changing room and players firing on every cylinder. They get the job in the first place because a team has fundamental issues that need to be addressed as priority before a new direction can be taken.

Regardless, this is the reality in which we now reside in, and furthermore there is another truth that must be recognized.

It is that a domino effect tends to occur. When one goes, another follows soon after.

With sackings taking place especially early this season that doesn’t bode well for those currently in the spotlight, their jobs very much on the line.

Premier League Manager Betting Odds:

Daniel Farke is the overwhelming football betting favourite to be the next manager sacked ahead of Eddie Howe, Scott Parker, and Marco Silva. With Leeds 16th and having taken only three of the last 15 available points, pressure is mounting on Farke as November’s international break gets underway.

Three clubs have already made managerial changes. Nottingham Forest swapped Nuno Espírito Santo for Ange Postecoglou three matches into the season, then replaced Postecoglou with Sean Dyche, after the Australian’s style of football represented too stark a change from Nuno.

West Ham fired Graham Potter to bring in Nuno and Wolves fired Vitor Pereira on Nov. 2. Wolves made the curious decision to hand Pereira a contract extension after losing the first four matches of the season. The club remain winless and without a permanent manager.

Howe’s League Woes

Consecutive road defeats to Brentford and West Ham have raised questions about Howe’s future at St. James’ Park.

Three straight wins in the Champions League should have earned Howe a bit more time, but it doesn’t get any easier after the break with the visit of Manchester City before trips to Marseille and Everton.

Newcastle’s underlying numbers are solid, at least, and expectations for this season were dampened by the long-running Alexander Isak sale over the summer.

Still, there’s a risk this gets out of hand. Newcastle only have 12 points on the board before facing City, Everton, and Spurs.

Does Farke Get Time?

Leeds are between Sunderland and Bournemouth in expected goal difference. Farke’s side are on a bad run – defeats to Burnley and Forest have been especially painful – but it’s not the worst idea to give the manager a bit more time.

The concern, though, is how many goals are being conceded. In their last six matches, Leeds haven’t kept a clean sheet and have conceded two or more goals on five occasions.

It also doesn’t seem like the right time to make a change. The opponents after the international break are Aston Villa, Manchester City, Liverpool, and Chelsea. That’s not a good way to introduce a new manager, so it’s probably worth giving Farke until the middle of December at least.

Parker’s Burnley Stint

Burnley have by far the worst expected goal difference in the Premier League at -1.39 per xGD per 90 minutes.

Crucial wins over fellow strugglers Leeds and Wolves have bought Parker a bit of time, but an agonising loss to West Ham was a major setback.

Over the next month, a home match against an impressive Crystal Palace is Burnley’s best chance of a victory.

Burnley’s hierarchy haven’t been as trigger-happy as some of the other teams down the bottom, but the club might feel like they don’t have a choice if the current trajectory continues.

Slot & Silva

A thumping at the hands of Manchester City on Sunday took Liverpool to five defeats from six Premier League matches. Arne Slot has plenty of credit in the bank after last season, but it’s not out of the question that he’s the next manager sacked if Leeds, Newcastle, and Burnley exercise patience with their gaffers.

Liverpool are, remarkably, only one point behind fourth, but the board will get twitchy if that gap grows.

Like Liverpool, Fulham have lost five of their last six Premier League matches. Silva is the third-longest-serving manager in the Premier League, so the west London club should give him some time. The threat of relegation has made plenty of clubs act rashly in these situations in the past, however.

What Is The Premier League Sack Race?

In 2023, a detailed and depressing report by UEFA revealed that the average tenure of a manager across Europe’s top five leagues amounted to just 15 months.

That same year, there were 735 sackings in Europe’s top-flight divisions with the Premier League alone seeing 15 changes of head coach. That lofty figure focuses only on permanent switches, not the appointment of interim bosses, or managers resigning.

Incidentally, what an ironic word to use ‘permanent’ is. Just two years on, none of those 15 appointments are still in their roles.

When assessing the current roster of Premier League gaffers we find that 65% were appointed in 2024 or thereafter while two managers – Nuno Espirito Santo and Graham Potter - have already received their P45 a mere seven games in.

Is it any wonder therefore that football management is sometimes referred to as the most precarious job around?

A lion tamer wearing Lady Gaga’s meat dress has better prospects, and more security.

What’s more, it only gets worse for the present crop because the sacking season is just around the corner, that time of the year when club chairmen collectively press the panic button in the blind hope that it doubles up as a reset.

How Many Premier League Managers Are Sacked?

Across the last 12 seasons, 89 Premier League managers have either been sacked or left via ‘mutual consent’ during the course of a campaign. A notable 51.6% of them had their desks cleared between mid-November and the end of February.

There are two ways of viewing this, neither of them right nor wrong, both subjective.

Should we put sentiment to one side, and the sobering acknowledgment that a man has temporarily lost his livelihood, we could perhaps admit there is some degree of logic to over half of top-flight sackings occurring in this period.

Because, even if employed that summer, a coach has had a transfer window, pre-season, numerous games and three international breaks to implement his methods and mould a team. If results are subsequently going from bad to worse it heavily suggests he is not the right fit for that club.

Alternatively, it could be opined that club owners these days are far too guilty of short-term thinking and that it typically takes a substantial amount of time to turn a team’s fortunes around.

After all, managers are very rarely appointed into a successful gig, complete with a happy changing room and players firing on every cylinder. They get the job in the first place because a team has fundamental issues that need to be addressed as priority before a new direction can be taken.

Regardless, this is the reality in which we now reside in, and furthermore there is another truth that must be recognized.

It is that a domino effect tends to occur. When one goes, another follows soon after.

With sackings taking place especially early this season that doesn’t bode well for those currently in the spotlight, their jobs very much on the line.

*Odds subject to change - prices accurate at the time of writing*