Our Australian Open betting preview looks ahead to the first Grand Slam of the year and of the decade. Melbourne plays host to the 108th edition of the Australian Open, starting on 20th January and running through until 2nd February.

The tournament, which has been held on hard courts since 1988, is the highest attended Grand Slam event – almost 800,000 people attended the 2019 Australian Open. Melbourne Park is a wonderful setting for the fortnight of tennis.

Novak Djokovic and Naomi Osaka are inevitably two of the tennis betting favourites as the duo look to retain their singles titles.

Djokovic is the most successful men’s player in Australian Open history with seven titles to his name – Osaka, in contrast, is at the start of her career and had never made it past the fourth round in Melbourne prior to her win last year.

Starting with the women’s draw, let’s take a look at the betting markets ahead of the 2020 Australian Open…

 

Australian Open 2020: Women's

Serena Williams dominated women’s tennis in the 2010s, but she’s been stuck on 23 Grand Slam titles for three years, leaving her one behind Margaret Court’s all-time record. Peculiarly, Serena has lost her last four Grand Slam finals.

That suggests her game hasn’t waned significantly, and she’s still clearly capable of winning Slams. Williams remains the player to beat – she’s the 4/1 to betting favourite – and her chase of a 24th Slam will be a talking point throughout the tournament.

A player looking to join Williams as one of the best tennis players of all-time, defending champion Naomi Osaka, follows her idol in the outright market.

Osaka fell to Karolina Pliskova in Brisbane in a well-fought three-setter. Victories over Maria Sakkari, Sofia Kenin and Kiki Bertens were solid preparation for Osaka, however, as she looks to build on a strong end to 2019.

Not phased by the big occasion, Osaka is a hard player to predict. She has only reached the last eight of two Grand Slams, but went on to win both of them.

Pliskova, ranked number two in the world, followed her win over Osaka with a victory against Madison Keys in the Brisbane final.

The 27-year-old didn’t have a great end to 2019, with disappointments in Wuhan, Beijing and Shenzen, but Pliskova isn’t an opponent anyone will be want to face.

Her big serve makes her a candidate to go all the way, though her Grand Slam record thus far doesn’t reflect her talent.

World number one Ashleigh Barty got the better of Pliskova in the WTA Finals, and is looking to improve on her career-best quarter-final performance at the 2019 Australian Open.

Playing in her home Grand Slam, Barty will be roared by the home crowds, but after a great 2019, it could be a question of whether the expectation is too much.

A straight sets loss to Jennifer Brady in Brisbane was far from perfect preparation for a Grand Slam and may put some bettors off backing the Australian at 8/1.

An Australian Open finalist in 2018, Simona Halep shares the 8/1 price with Barty. The Romanian had a mixed 2019, winning Wimbledon before falling in the second round of the US Open.

Halep is a proven competitor in the latter stages of Slams, but losses to Elina Svitolina and Pliskova in the WTA Finals will not fill potential backers with confidence.

Svitolina at 25/1 could be a good outsider to back despite a surprising 6-1, 6-1 loss to Danielle Collins in Brisbane.

Last year was somewhat of a breakthrough for the Ukrainian, and back-to-back quarter-final appearances in Melbourne reflect improvements in her hard-court game.

Priced at 10/1, Pliskova represents the best value at the moment, though Belinda Bencic is also a player to keep an eye out for at 33/1.

 

2020 Australian Open: Men's

Novak Djokovic is the 13/10 betting favourite to win his eighth Australian Open and 17th Grand Slam title. The prospect of the big three breaking up has been hypothesised for years.

Unfortunately for the new generation, Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer aren’t showing much interest in handing over any time soon.

Djokovic lost two of his three matches at the ATP Finals, but that doesn’t mean the door is ajar at the top of the men’s game.

Playing through some discomfort, and at the end of a gruelling year, the performances in London are unlikely a reflection of the Djokovic we will see in Melbourne after a period of rest.

Nadal, who faced Djokovic in one of the greatest Australian Open matches in 2012, is priced at 4/1 to win his first Australian Open in over a decade.

It has been a tournament of near misses for the Spaniard with four final losses since his triumph in 2009. Nadal suffered a blow in the build-up to the tournament, losing to Djokovic in the ATP Cup Final as Spain fell to Serbia.

Another Nadal-Djokovic meeting in the Australian Open final is by far the most likely scenario.

Nadal has won seven and lost 19 of their hard-court meetings, but his superb form at the US Open and performances that followed will give him plenty of confidence.

One of the players most likely to upset the top three, Daniil Medvedev, is third in the outright Australian Open market at a shorter price than Federer.

Medvedev pushed Nadal to five sets and won in Shanghai afterwards, but he hit a poor run soon after, losing four matches on the bounce.

Picking between the up and coming Medvedev and veteran Federer might be the biggest decision in the men’s outright market.

Federer fell in the fourth round to Stefanos Tsitsipas in Melbourne last year, but promptly ended suggestions that his career may be coming to an end with a semi-final appearance at Roland Garros and that final at Wimbledon.

Federer will likely have to beat Nadal and Djokovic if he’s to add to his Australian Open haul, which is a big ask at 38 years old, but his 9/1 price still looks better value than Medvedev at 8/1.

On a level playing field, the Swiss would still be fancied against the Russian.

World number six Tsitsipas starred at the ATP Finals, earning him a 10/1 price. Consistency is still a concern for the 21-year-old Greek, however, after first-round exits at Wimbledon and the US Open.

The undeniably talented Alexander Zverev is an outside bet to consider despite recent troubles – a Grand Slam break-through will come sooner or later for the German, and 50/1 must be worth a few pounds.

 

Excited about the Aus open? You'll also get excited about the tennis odds at 888 sport

 

*Credit for the main photo belongs to Steve Christo / AP Photo*

January 13, 2020
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Sam is a sports tipster, specialising in the Premier League and Champions League.

He covers most sports, including cricket and Formula One. Sam particularly enjoys those on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean – notably MLB and NBA.

Watching, writing and talking about sports betting takes up most of his time, whether that is for a day out at T20 Finals Day or a long night of basketball.

Having been writing for several years, Sam has been working with 888Sport since 2016, contributing multiple articles per week to the blog.

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At the end of the day all a horse racing betting punter wants to do is find a nice winner or two but you must be prepared to do your research in order to do so.

There are no magic formulas to finding winners but there are certainly plenty of proven ways to work out whether a horse has a decent chance of landing a race or not.

Let’s take a look at the key considerations you should be assessing when making your picks:

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Going and Distance

These two factors are absolutely vital in any attempt to find winners. It must be remembered that however good a horse is, if the ground conditions are against it there is a high chance that the horse will simply not be seen at its best.

Similarly, the horse most likely to win the race is the best horse on the day in the conditions.

Horse racing tipster Richard Birch once said: “Any punter who places a bet without careful consideration of the horse’s going requirements might as well throw the money down a drain.”

That statement may very well be true in approximately 95% of all horse races, but a punter mustn’t let the going factor get totally in the way of the raw ability of the animal.

A great couple of examples of this were highlighted by newspaper tipster, Graeme Rodway:

“The first example is Frankel’s victory in the 2012 Qipco Champion Stakes. Sir Henry Cecil’s superstar was considered a far better performer on top of the ground and encountered soft going for the first time since his debut at Ascot.

"His main rival Cirrus Des Aigles was a prolific winner on testing ground, yet he couldn’t get anywhere near Frankel.

I also remember a huge gamble on Clever Cookie in the King George at Ascot. In hindsight, it is laughable that Peter Niven’s gelding, talented though he was, went off only 4-1 to beat Postponed, simply because the ground had turned in his favour.

"The going can be a leveller, but not to that extent. Clever Cookie finished well held in fifth.”

Taking heed of what the experts like this say as they could help you one day land one of the next big famous horse racing gambles. Here are some other important points to note when examining the going:

  • Some horses are very versatile and can run to form on any ground.
  • If a horse has run badly on all the occasions they have met a certain type of ground you can generally say they don’t act in those conditions.
  • Horses that have been running on unfavourable ground are worth bearing in mind for when they actually run on their favoured ground. They tend to be overpriced as the bookmakers and the layers essentially just see a string of poor form figures.

Just like the going, the distance of races is another key factor in selecting a winner.

You definitely shouldn’t rush to back a horse that has only raced in 1 mile races for example, that finds itself running in a race twice that distance.

On the flip side of that same coin, if there is a horse with bags of staying power over longer distances running, you do not want to steam in with your  hard earned cash if it turns out in a sprint for example.

Undoubtedly a horses’ form can improve or deteriorate when stepped up or down in trip but one of the main mistakes people make is they automatically assume that a horse that runs on well in a race needs to be stepped up in trip.

What happens in the early to middle part of a horse race is more important than what happens in the last couple of furlongs in my opinion. Looking out for terms such as “outpaced” can be as equally important as “stayed on well’ in the final furlong.

 

Signposts

There are no right or wrong ways to study horse racing form but in general must punters essentially follow a simple set of “signposts”.

The internet, and to a lesser extent newspapers,  are full of trainer form, jockey form, course form, which horses are going up and down in class, which horses are travelling the furthest distance and which horses were well backed last time out.

This information is in the main free although there are some subscription services out there if you want to do some really serious in-depth form study.

When weighing up a horse race and who might come out of it victorious, most punters tend to ask themselves this simple set of basic questions:

  • Has the horse won or ran well on today’s ground?
  • Has the horse won over today’s trip or ran well enough to suggest it will suit?
  • Is the trainer in decent form, sending out plenty of winners and placers?
  • Will the course suit, has it run well on the track before or on similar tracks?

Breeding

Some people find this particular element of horse racing study rather daunting but as long as you can grasp some of the basics it will help assist your general betting strategies.

The breeding of a horse can not only determine its ability but also its optimum going and distance range.  This is an important element of any betting decision you might make on a horse before it runs.

Punters, in recent times, have increasingly looked to ways other than traditional form study to give themselves an angle and breeding and dosage is just one of those avenues that can give you an edge.

A decade ago a friend of mine, Ben Aitken, wrote a book (Narrowing The Field: Using the Dosage Method to win at National Hunt racing) that aimed to help punters use the dosage method in finding winners of jump races.

The publication guided punters through the basic theories of dosage and gave them a race-by-race analysis of all the major National Hunt races in a calendar year- a kind of ante post horse racing guide in many ways.

It did pretty well on the sales front and gave punters another tool for their armoury.

 

Summary: Horse Racing Betting Strategies

I’ve only just scratched the surface in this article on how to go about giving yourself an advantage in the pursuit of winners.

There are of course many more strategies out there but I really hope that I have introduced you to some of the basic fundamentals here.

 

*Credit for the main photo belongs to Mark J. Terrill / AP Photo*

January 13, 2020

By Steve Mullington

Steve Mullington
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    Steven is a sports and horse racing enthusiast and is a member of the Horseracing Writers and Photographers Association (HWPA) in the United Kingdom.

    He is a regular visitor to Paris Longchamp for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe and a lifelong fan of the Aintree Grand National, a subject he writes about 52 weeks of the year. Last year he reached the impressive milestone of attending the last 30 renewals of the Grand National.

    Steven graduated from the University Of Lancaster in 1996 with a B.A (Hons) in Urban Policy & Race Relations (major) with Contemporary Religions & Belief Systems (minor) and still wonders if any of these help him find the winners?

    He writes for a number of websites and online publications and you can sometimes hear him at the weekend discussing racing on a number of local radio stations. 

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    The NBA All-Star game might be no more than an exhibition for the world’s best to show-off their skills, but it is an important honour in any player’s career.

    Being invited to the game that caps off the weekend featuring the skills challenge and dunk contest is something that sticks on a Basketball Reference page forever more.

    There are plenty of locks for the All-Star game, but injuries to Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Steph Curry have opened up more spots than usual.

    While there will be plenty of familiar faces in Miami next month, there’s ample opportunity for players to break into that elite group and earn their first All-Star selection.

    NBA betting tips didn’t consider these five to be MVP contenders at the start of the season, and some of them were even outsiders to make the All-Star game. All five, however, have a real chance at playing on Sunday night in Miami…

    Malcolm Brogdon

    Taking the reins while Victor Oladipo remains sidelined, Malcolm Brogdon has seamlessly adapted from third or fourth option on the Bucks to the point guard and key man for the Indiana Pacers.

    Indiana are, once again, exceeding expectations and Brogdon – along with fellow All-Star contender Domantas Sabonis – has led the way.

    Indiana deserve at least one All-Star representative. It was hard to pick between Brogdon and Sabonis for this list, and there’s a decent chance both make the team.

    Brogdon, a former Rookie of the Year, has seen his trademark efficiency drop, though that’s a natural consequence of taking up a bigger role and putting up more shots (14.2 per night this season compared to 11.7 last).

    Only nine NBA players are assisting more per game than Brogdon’s 7.4.

    Pascal Siakam

    The groin injury that has kept Pascal Siakam out since 20th December shouldn’t harm his chances. Such was his level before this absence, the Cameroonian forward should walk onto the Eastern Conference All-Star team.

    Siakam is the reigning Most Improved Player and has a legitimate chance to win the award in back-to-back seasons.

    Averaging 25 points per night with eight boards, Siakam has stepped into the alpha role with ease. Defences are scheming to stop Siakam, he’s under extra pressure every night, but it hasn’t halted his development.

    The former 27th overall pick has thrived this year. Plenty of sports betting experts were low on the Raptors at the start of the season. Siakam’s performances a major reason why those predictions are looking silly now.

    Luka Doncic

    This one doesn’t really fit with ‘potential All-Star’. Luka Doncic is a lock – he’s the highest vote getter in Western Conference so far and will almost certainly be named a starter.

    Following one of the top rookie seasons in NBA history, Doncic has taken a leap that few expected at this early stage in his NBA career.

    The MVP race has edged slightly away from Doncic in recent weeks, with James Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo the clear frontrunners.

    With Dallas heading for a good playoff seeding though, Doncic could get force his way into the reckoning. The Slovenian has duelled with LeBron James toe-to-toe and is breaking all manner of triple-double records.

    Doncic is a superstar, and his first All-Star nod will just be the beginning of a career with accolades aplenty.

    Brandon Ingram

    Leaving the home of one of the greatest NBA dynasties to join a Pelicans franchise heading for a rebuild might not have seemed like a perfect career move.

    It has worked out beautifully for Brandon Ingram, however, who has thrived in New Orleans with more responsibility.

    Zion Williamson’s injury might have been a blessing in disguise for Ingram. The 2nd overall pick in the 2016 draft spent two years adapting to the NBA in a Laker uniform before a messy 2018/19 campaign trying to find a role alongside LeBron James.

    Ingram has always had the talent to score, and he’s getting the chance to show it this season, averaging north of 25 points per game. He’s averaging career-highs in rebounds, assists and steals, too.

    Bam Adebayo

    Even Bam Adebayo’s biggest fans didn’t see this sort of season coming.

    Adebayo has transformed into a do-it-all force, elite defensively and an explosive athlete. His passing, too, shouldn’t be overlooked (not many centres average 4.5 dimes per night).

    The Miami Heat have been a bit of a surprise package this year, exceeding expectations thus far with Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro all starring.

    All have been impressive. Adebayo’s switchability on defence has helped Erik Spoelstra run out different line-ups, and his passing has made life much easier for those shooters.

    A starting berth is extremely unlikely, such is the strength of the forwards in the Eastern Conference and the voting power of Celtics fans. Positions are disregarded for the reserve spots, though, and Adebayo should slot into one of those.

    *Credit for the main photo belongs to AJ Mast / AP Photo*

    January 13, 2020
    Body

    Sam is a sports tipster, specialising in the Premier League and Champions League.

    He covers most sports, including cricket and Formula One. Sam particularly enjoys those on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean – notably MLB and NBA.

    Watching, writing and talking about sports betting takes up most of his time, whether that is for a day out at T20 Finals Day or a long night of basketball.

    Having been writing for several years, Sam has been working with 888Sport since 2016, contributing multiple articles per week to the blog.

    Sam Cox
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