The NFL Draft is a year-round process. Scouts commit hour upon hour to watching college games.

Finding a late-round gem is the dream, but it’s the first-round selections where there’s the most pressure. NFL front offices are defined by their first-round picks, particularly if they are lucky enough (or bad enough) to be picking early on.

Hunting for a franchise quarterback or a special talent to fix a dire need, the first-round NFL Draft picks arrive in the league with great expectation.

Their performances, right from their NFL debut onwards, will be analysed in-depth and the fan base will be desperate for them to succeed. Failure to hit with first-round picks can leave franchises in the doldrums.

While the rumour mill gives a good idea of who will go in the first round, there are always some surprises. Here are the 10 most shocking NFL first-round draft picks…

 

Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oakland Raiders, 2009

Certainly one of the greatest names in NFL Draft history, the Oakland Raiders took Darrius Heyward-Bey with the seventh pick in 2009. Al Davis had a penchant for the surprising on draft night, and Heyward-Bey might just be the pick of the bunch.

The wide receiver had 13 touchdowns in three college seasons. His elite speed at the combine lured in the Raiders, but it proved to be a mistake as Heyward-Bey registered just 11 touchdowns in four seasons with Oakland.

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Mario Williams, Houston Texans, 2006

The first overall pick is usually known well in advance. Sometimes teams sit on the fence for a bit, but it’s usually public knowledge who is going first overall well before the draft starts.

The 2006 draft wasn’t like others. Intrigue grew around the Houston Texans’ selection as draft day approached. A showdown with the 49ers had been seen as the ‘Reggie Bush Bowl’, such was the certainty that he’d go first overall.

Houston cooled on Bush, however, and ended up taking Mario Williams. It raised eyebrows at the time but proved to be a great pick.

Vernon Gholston, New York Jets, 2008

The New York Jets were sucked in by Vernon Gholston’s pre-draft workouts. They took Gholston with the sixth overall pick despite minimal proof he was of NFL quality in college.

He managed just five starts across his three seasons in the NFL. It was a gamble by the Jets, and one that absolutely did not pay off.

The error is only exaggerated by the players taken after Gholston, including Pro Bowlers DeSean Jackson and Aqib Talib and Super Bowl-winning quarterback Joe Flacco.

 

Tommy Maddox, Denver Broncos, 1992

A conflict between starting quarterback John Elway and the Denver Broncos might have been what led to Tommy Maddox going 25th overall in 1992.

Picking a young quarterback to learn from a veteran is commonplace, but this was an unorthodox time to do so.

The Broncos had gone deep into the playoffs in the previous season. A player to help them immediately seemed most likely. Instead, they shocked the league and took a quarterback with minimal college success.

 

Tim Tebow, Denver Broncos, 2010

Almost two decades after the Maddox shocker, the Denver Broncos once again stunned the NFL on draft night with a high-risk quarterback selection in the first round.

Now a baseball player, Tim Tebow was a controversial athlete in college, even getting a rule named after him. As he headed for the draft, Tebow was expected to go in the third round, and very few saw him as a late-first round selection.

The Broncos did. Denver traded second, third and fourth round selections to trade up and select Tebow. He played just two seasons for the Broncos and was quickly out of the league.

Tim Tebow was a shock NFL Draft first round pick
Photo credit: AP Photo / Ed Andrieski

Randy Moss, Minnesota Vikings, 1998

This one is a bit different from the others. Randy Moss going 21st overall was a surprise because many expected him to go way earlier. One of the greatest players to play in the NFL wasn’t even the first wide receiver taken in the 1998 draft.

It would be a mistake to overlook the off-field issues that saw Moss fall to Minnesota. They didn’t hesitate to take him, though, and he repaid that faith with an Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign and a Hall of Fame career.

Two of Moss’ former teams feature in our best NFL playoff comebacks.

 

John Avery, Miami Dolphins, 1998

Eight selections after Minnesota took Moss, the Miami Dolphins opted for John Avery. Avery, like others on this list, earned support for his pre-draft workouts despite never starring in college.

He survived just one year in Miami before being dealt. The criticism the Dolphins received at the time only got worse as his rookie season went on.

Ricky Williams, New Orleans Saints, 1999

Moves don’t come much more ‘all-in’ than what the Saints did to land Ricky Williams. New Orleans gave up their first, third, fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh-round picks in the 1999 draft and their first and third rounders in the 2000 draft.

Williams had been a college superstar and was destined to go high. Being fifth overall was fair, but what the Saints gave up was stunning. He had a decent NFL career, though nothing worthy of the draft capital given up.

 

James Fletcher, Miami Dolphins, 2001

Three years after the Avery pick, the Dolphins were the talk of the first round once again when they took cornerback James Fletcher 25th overall.

Fletcher had a solid NFL career, but it was his fit on the Dolphins that made this a weird move. Miami already had two elite corners and had plenty of work to do on the rest of the roster.

Their franchise history could look very different if they took Drew Brees, who is in the conversation as the greatest quarterback in NFL history. Brees was taken seven picks later.

 

Daniel Jones, New York Giants, 2019

With Kyler Murray going first overall, Dwayne Haskins looked set to go to the New York Giants with the sixth pick. Looking for their Eli Manning replacement, the Giants instead opted for Daniel Jones, who had been underwhelming in college.

New York also owned the 17th pick in the draft. They took Dexter Lawrence with that selection, but probably could have waited for Jones and taken Josh Allen or Devin Bush with the sixth pick.

 

*Credit for the main photo belongs to Mark Humphrey / AP Photo*

February 20, 2020
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Sam is a sports tipster, specialising in the Premier League and Champions League.

He covers most sports, including cricket and Formula One. Sam particularly enjoys those on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean – notably MLB and NBA.

Watching, writing and talking about sports betting takes up most of his time, whether that is for a day out at T20 Finals Day or a long night of basketball.

Having been writing for several years, Sam has been working with 888Sport since 2016, contributing multiple articles per week to the blog.

Sam Cox
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Salary caps are used in the NFL, NBA and rugby. The concept is an alien one for European football, though a similar system is used in MLS.

Understandably, any discussions of bringing in a salary cap are met with negativity by the biggest clubs as it would, most likely, reduce – or in some cases, eliminate – their financial advantage.

The general idea behind a salary cap is to improve parity. Levelling the playing field between the financial powerhouses and the smaller clubs is something that a lot of football fans would crave.

It has its flaws, of course, and as the NFL and NBA show, a salary cap isn’t a cure-all for the disadvantages some teams suffer from.

Talks were held about a salary cap in the Premier League in 2011. Dave Whelan saw it as a necessity to help deal with the enormous debt in English football.

According to the Guardian’s guide from the 2017/18 season, seven Premier League clubs made a loss and 59% of turnover went on player wages.

This is a marked improvement from earlier in the 2010s, however: the 20 Premier League clubs made a collective loss of £361 million in 2010/11 with only eight clubs making a profit.

 

Financial Parity (wages 2019/20)

Manchester City have the biggest wage bill in the Premier League per Spotrac. City have invested heavily in the playing staff under the current ownership group. Mistakes in the market don’t seem to have impacted their willingness to spend.

Despite having plenty of high-paid defenders on the books, including the costly and underperforming John Stones and Nicolas Otamendi, City splashed on Aymeric Laporte – one of the best January signings in Premier League - history two years ago.

City’s wage bill of £145,000,000 is £60,000,000 more than Tottenham, who have the sixth-highest player payroll in the division.

Arsenal, who have recently cut substantial salaries by allowing Alexis Sanchez and Aaron Ramsey to leave, are just under £100,000,000, putting them £20 million ahead of Everton in seventh.

The gap between teams is relatively gradual in the top half. Everton have thrown money at their team in recent years. They are followed by Leicester who were in the Champions League a few seasons ago.

Crystal Palace’s squad of veterans requires big salaries. There’s then a significant drop to West Ham in 10th, who have a payroll almost half of Arsenal’s and almost a third of Manchester City’s.

Brighton, Newcastle and Bournemouth’s (far from Premier League newbies) combined payroll is almost exactly the same as Chelsea’s, who are fourth on Spotrac’s list behind Liverpool and the two Manchester clubs.

Teams who have played in the Champions League over the last five or so years clearly have more spending power. Higher Premier League finishes help that, too.

Newly promoted teams are always going to be weaker than the league’s defending champions, but Norwich and Sheffield United’s wage bills are less than 10% of Manchester City’s.

A salary cap, greater sharing of revenues, and a perhaps a salary floor, would be a way to address this.

 

Biggest Issues

There’s a reluctance to change, and that’s not just at the top clubs. VAR is a work in progress, and any substantial financial regulations like a salary cap would take time to tweak before they took full effect.

Comparisons with NBA and NFL are disingenuous to a degree. If the free market continues elsewhere, the Premier League implementing a salary cap doesn’t work.

The NBA and NFL do not have competitors like La Liga and Serie A to lure the best players. Promotion and relegation – again, something the NBA and NFL don’t have – cause issues too.

A potential salary cap would presumably be higher in the Premier League than the Championship – players’ contracts would need substantial clauses in the event relegation.

Bad contracts are a bigger problem with a salary cap imposed. Paying a player over his market value or handing a deal to someone who ends up injured long-term has a far greater impact if spending power to rectify that deal is restricted.

NBA and NFL teams can get stuck with toxic contracts that hold the franchise back for years. While such problems exist in the Premier League at the moment, they are not as severe.

Salary Cap Liverpool Premier League
Photo credit: AP Photo / Jon Super

Introducing a salary cap might mean maximum player salaries like the NBA. The cap has helped competitiveness in some ways, but when it comes to free agency, there are still a lot of teams who don’t even qualify as an afterthought.

If the money is the same, the Premier League would likely go the same route: players will favour a move to Anfield or Old Trafford over Bournemouth or West Ham.


Widespread Agreement Required

It isn’t down to the Premier League to introduce a salary cap, unless they are willing to lose the best players to other leagues. FIFA and UEFA would need to lead the way.

The FA and Premier League could work together to introduce a form of salary cap, or perhaps improve on Financial Fair Play, to safeguard against clubs overspending.

While this can be seen as imposing a ceiling on a club based on revenue, it might be the best route to avoid clubs – particularly in the lower tiers – spending beyond their means and getting into financial trouble.

A salary cap alone will not address the grotesque financial inequality in English football. Even if wages were limited, players are still going to be drawn to the teams with stronger squads and the possibility of Champions League football.

English football has to find a way for teams to grow without requiring mass external investment. The arguments against FFP are solid; the restriction on investment makes it almost impossible for teams to make the leap.

That needs to change, and while that discussion is further reaching than a salary cap, it could be a part of the approach.

 

*Credit for the main photo belongs to Rui Vieira / AP Photo*

February 20, 2020
Body

Sam is a sports tipster, specialising in the Premier League and Champions League.

He covers most sports, including cricket and Formula One. Sam particularly enjoys those on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean – notably MLB and NBA.

Watching, writing and talking about sports betting takes up most of his time, whether that is for a day out at T20 Finals Day or a long night of basketball.

Having been writing for several years, Sam has been working with 888Sport since 2016, contributing multiple articles per week to the blog.

Sam Cox
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