It’s General Election week. Thursday 4th July will see the nation go to the polls for the first UK General Election since 2019, which is a long gap by modern standards after a string of nationwide votes in the latter half of the 2010s.
General Election odds are heavily favouring an emphatic Labour win. Polls and projections have predicted a Labour landslide since Rishi Sunak’s surprise decision to call an election in the rain outside Downing Street a few weeks ago.
Sunak is the fifth Conservative Prime Minister since Labour were last in power, having followed David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, and Liz Truss.
Keir Starmer is set to become the first Labour Prime Minister since 2010, and become the first Labour leader to win a General Election since Tony Blair. Here’s our final update from the latest odds before Thursday’s General election…
Most Seats Odds
Labour remain 1/100 to have the most seats. They opened at 1/25 in this market, and polls have overwhelmingly favoured Keir Starmer’s party. It has only trended in one direction since Sunak called the election.
The rise of Farage and Reform has posed a bigger threat to the Tories than Labour, too. Reform are going to take votes from the Tories, potentially allowing Labour to sneak in and claim seats that no one expected them to compete for.
Projections have Labour winning the most seats by a sizeable margin. Plenty of polls are indicating the Tories could have under 100 seats, with Reform, the Greens, and the Liberal Democrats all set to make gains.
BBC polling has Labour with 40% of the vote as it stands. The Tories are only four points ahead of Reform, while the Lib Dems are hovering at 11%.
Remarkably, the Tories and Reform have the same price (25/1) to win the most seats later this week. Most projections suggest this is very far-fetched, however, and 25/1 on Reform has no value given how their votes are spread across the country.
General Election Result
Labour are 1/33 to win the General Election. They were 1/20 just a fortnight ago. Good luck finding a projection that produces anything other than a massive Labour majority.
Survation projects Labour to win a 290-seat majority, with the Conservatives winning only 85 seats.
Electoral Calculus is even more optimistic about Labour’s chances, projecting that their majority could be up towards 400 seats. They also believe the Lib Dems still have a change of forming the opposition.
While there is no such formal concept as a ‘supermajority’ in British politics, this has been a term thrown around by the Conservatives to deter people from backing Labour or Reform.
There might be some tactical votes to minimise Labour’s majority, and turnout could be low with so many viewing this election as a foregone conclusion.
A hung parliament is out to 14/1. Since 1929, only three general elections have ended in a hung parliament. Harold Wilson had a minority government for less than eight months in 1974.
David Cameron formed a coalition with the Liberal Democrats in 2010, and Theresa May entered into a pact with the DUP after her snap election backfired in 2017.
Reform are 40/1 to have a majority. The Tories are 50/1. It’s an extraordinary position to be in. While neither are worth backing even at such long odds, this illustrates how close the Tories are to a potential wipeout election after 14 years in government.
There has been no whimper of a fightback from the Tories throughout this campaign. Senior figures have hidden away. Sunak has won very few people over and alienated many more. Voters are emphatically rejecting Sunak and the Tory party.
Next Conservative Leader Odds
Kemi Badenoch has held at 11/4 to be the next Conservative leader. Badenoch has not been that visible in this campaign, but she has been in a high-profile spat with national treasure David Tennant over trans rights.
After impressing in difficult circumstances during the debates, Penny Mordaunt sits at 9/2 to succeed Sunak.
Mordaunt is not the most popular Tory politician (ranking 17th at YouGov), but she has been in high-profile positions in government, and at least seems more well-received by the electorate than Sunak.
Priti Patel and Nigel Farage sit third and fourth at 5/1 and 6/1, respectively. Either would represent an even further jump to the right from the Tories. It’s quite a feasible response to suffering a battering at the polls on Thursday.
On the other hand, Tom Tugendhat and David Cameron (7/1, 10/1) are candidates if the Tories look to battle Labour for the centre ground. Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman are bound to have some support if they stand (both 8/1).
It was reported over the last few days that Badenoch and Braverman have set up websites for a leadership campaign. Mordaunt’s remains active from her last effort. Both Badenoch and Braverman say the domains are nothing to do with them.
*Credit for the main photo belongs to Alamy*
