Euro 2024 is nearly upon us, a fiesta of football guaranteed to produce drama, memorable games and no doubt an upset or two. The match schedule is set and we're ready to go.
Hosted on this occasion by Germany this is a tournament that very rarely disappoints, and with 51 matches awaiting us, featuring 24 of the continent’s elite, naturally our thoughts turn to the betting markets.
More pertinently, with a ball not yet kicked, we turn to the outrights. Who will win the ultimate prize? Which striker will out-score his peers and claim the Golden Boot? Is there value to be found in backing a ‘dark horse’ to win their group?
Naturally, this guide does not have any definitive answers but it will hopefully steer you in the right direction. Bet wisely, and if you can’t bet wisely, be lucky.
Euro 2024 Outright Winner Odds
In determining which nations have the strongest chance of being the Euro 2024 winner come July 14th a number of factors must be considered.
Do they have tournament-winning pedigree? Are they going into this summer in decent form? Do they possess individuals who can change the course of a game with a moment of magic?
In Germany’s case, we must also examine how much of an advantage they have in being hosts.
They certainly have the pedigree, previously winning the Euros on three occasions and reaching the final six times. Their record in World Cups is equally as imperious.
As for their form, well here it gets a little complicated.
By hosting the event it was not necessary for Die Mannshaft to qualify, meaning they have filled their international breaks in recent months with friendlies. These do not give us a clear reading of their current credentials, as formations and personnel have been experimented with.
What we do know is that since Julian Nagelsmann has come in, following a string of poor results, the Germans have looked more their usual fearsome selves.
So what about their hosting? Three previous winners have held aloft the trophy on home soil but interestingly this hasn’t happened since 1984, when France conquered in Paris.
All told, Germany are rightfully priced up as third favourites in the Euro 2024 odds, being dangerous but with risk attached. What they do have is those individuals mentioned earlier. Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz are superstars in the making.
Outright Winner - Germany
Ahead of them in the betting is France, winners in 2000 and losing finalists in 2016.
Ironically for a country that has previous for imploding during competitions due to in-house bickering Les Bleus’ big selling point is their stability, with Didier Deschamps at the helm since 2012.
The former Juventus ‘water-carrier’ has guided his team to consecutive World Cup finals.
France’s squad is packed with top-shelf talent and arguably they have the best defence of the summer. They also happen to have Kylian Mbappe, more on him very shortly.
Even this formidable collection of players however are not favourites in the outrights. That honour falls on Gareth Southgate’s Three Lions.
Counting against England is their manager’s conservative nature, erring on the side of caution when it matters most.
In their favour though – and considerably so – is their possession of three of the most gifted young players in world football, they being Jude Bellingham, Phil Foden and Bukayo Saka.
Notably, all three have enjoyed tremendous seasons with their respective clubs.
England are 3/1 to go one better than last time out and it’s worth acknowledging that their group is fairly routine. Should they top it, they are also blessed with a straightforward pathway to the final four.
Dark Horses In 2024 Euro Betting Odds
First off, don’t back a ‘dark horse’. They never win. Very possibly, they never will.
It could be argued that Portugal fell into this category when they triumphed in 2016 but a more persuasive take is they were led from the front by Cristiano Ronaldo with some superb players in supporting roles.
They were too good to be considered a tricky outsider.
Czechoslovakia, Denmark and Greece meanwhile – all prior winners of the Euros against expectation – were long-priced shocks. Should their name have been drawn in a sweepstake in 1976, 1992 or 2004 it would have prompted only a groan of despair.
If you choose to ignore the advice above, however, at least plump for a team who tick many of the boxes necessary to go all the way. And that leads us to Belgium, priced up at a generous 14/1.
The Red Devils are unbeaten since exiting Qatar 2022. In Kevin De Bruyne they have one of the world’s best play-makers. In Romelu Lukaku they have a forward equally as capable of firing a tournament blank or ending up with the Golden Boot.
A recent draw at Wembley – that had them boss proceedings throughout – reveals they are a better side then their odds suggest.
Elsewhere, the Netherlands entices at 16/1 while perennial dark horses Croatia and Denmark are a distant 40/1.
Euro 2024 Group Winner Odds
There is plenty of value to be found in the group winner outrights, especially when it concerns groups B and D. Each have a legitimate claim to be considered Euro 2024’s ‘Group of Death’.
In Group B, Spain are unsurprisingly the short-priced favourites to finish top, but with Italy and Croatia also in the mix there are enough unpredictable outcomes to warrant your money going elsewhere.
The Azzurri are 5/2 to top this exceedingly tough grouping and that appeals given their inherent mastery of navigating a tournament field and finding a way. Let’s not forget they beat La Roja on pens at Euro 2020 at the semi-final stage.
In group D, the Netherlands are the same price to finish ahead of France, Austria and Poland, a feat they’re more than capable of, particularly with France being traditional slow starters.
Group D Betting - Netherlands
Mention of Austria brings us to another category in the outrights, that of backing teams to qualfy from their group.
Understandably, here the odds tighten as the likelihood increases of a side finishing in the top two but one big win might be enough, coupled with a hard-fought draw.
And Austria – coached by ex-Manchester United manager Ralf Rangnick and captained by the brilliant David Alaba – have more than enough about them to do precisely this.
Das Team lost only once in their qualifying campaign.
Euro 2024 Top Scorer Outright Odds
Since 1996, when the tournament expanded to more than a handful of nations, the average number of goals needed to secure a Golden Boot has been 4.7. In 2012 Fernando Torres, Mario Gomez and Alan Dzagoev shared the honour with just three apiece.
Both Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane are capable of reaching that number in a single productive game, which is why this pair of prolific hit-men are priced at 5/1 and 11/2 respectively.
Neither are bad bets. Both make sense.
But the beauty of the goal-scorer outright market is there is value to be found in abundance, simply by picking a team you fancy to go far, who happen to be long-priced, then backing that team’s principle goal-snatcher.
Romelu Lukaku is the perfect example of this, spear-heading a team not overly anticipated to go the distance but with the credentials to do so.
The Roma forward is 20/1 to be the sharpest shooter of the summer.
Euro 2024 To Reach The Final Odds
The last four Euros have all had finals featured well-backed sides but go back a little further and a terrific Nedved-inspired Czech Republic outfit reached the final in 1996. The Soviet Union did likewise in 1988.
Dangerous outsiders may typically fall at the final hurdle but they have form for going deep.
So, in addition to backing a strong candidate to win the tournament in your Euro 2024 predictions, why not have some fun with a lesser-fancied team to join them?
Belgium are 6/1 to top a distinctly ordinary Group E. Should they do so, their passage to the semis avoids all of the big guns.
*Credit for the main photo belongs to Alamy*
