Football is full of supposed truisms that ironically have very little truth to them at all.

That 2-0 is the most dangerous of leads is one such misnomer, with basic logic informing us that being two goals down is a far more trepidatious score-line. 

Instead, common sense is purposely subverted, and the obvious pluses of having a two-goal advantage is tarnished with a reputation it ill-deserves. A team two up will win a game 90% of the time, outright losing the contest only 2.5% of the time. 

Another nonsensical maxim almost always comes to the fore when an unfancied side in the betting markets scores against a supposed superior within the opening passages of play. 

Among the beleaguered fan-base of the underdog, usually muttered to a fellow sufferer in bitter tones following a brief moment of delirium, a phrase is aired, one that insinuates the celebrating side have just made an awful error of judgement.

Because in a moment of sheer madness, they’ve only gone and scored too early.

The implication is that by overturning the betting odds a good stretch before half-time, it gives the better side an extended period of time to go on the offensive.

More so, they will attack while especially angry and motivated having conceded against expectation. 

Don’t provoke a tiger so soon on entering its cage, the theory goes. Instead, it is infinitely preferable to avoid being eaten alive until the very last moment, then call it hurtful names on your exiting. 

Which in fairness, is a strategy we can all get behind, were we to find ourselves in such surreal circumstances, and furthermore should we temporarily forego our animal loving nature. 

On the football field however, in reality, a team simply doesn’t get to choose when to strike. It doesn’t get to pick the 94th minute then immediately get the heck out of Dodge.

Scoring against strong opponents is difficult – and beneficial – enough at any juncture. 

A case in point. Imagine if you will that you support a side rock-bottom of the Premier League, and your striker is clean through at the Etihad or Anfield in the fifth minute. 

Do you want that forward to scuff his chance, for fear of offending Kevin De Bruyne, or riling up Mo Salah for the remaining 85 minutes? A goal after all gives your team something to protect.

It provides a platform to grab a potentially decisive second – for that most dangerous of score-lines - on the break. It means even a concession would only bring them level. 

Scoring a goal early in a game gives a team a significant advantage. And that’s just common sense. 

More so, the stats back this up. 

Regardless of the difference in quality of the teams involved, a side that has gone ahead inside 15 minutes in the Premier League era has gone on to win that game 63.28% of the time.

Teams that have taken a lead just before the break, by comparison, have won 70.64% of the time. 

It’s a mere seven or so per cent in it, from scoring ‘too early’ to converting at a widely perceived optimum time of just prior to half-time. 

Does that justify the sense of foreboding when De Bruyne is put out early doors, and Salah is miffed? It does not.


*Credit for all of the photos in this article belongs to AP Photo*

 

FIRST PUBLISHED: 17th January 2023

January 17, 2023

By Stephen Tudor

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    Stephen Tudor is a freelance football writer and sports enthusiast who only knows slightly less about the beautiful game than you do.

    A contributor to FourFourTwo and Forbes, he is a Manchester City fan who was taken to Maine Road as a child because his grandad predicted they would one day be good.

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    With the Dublin Racing Festival dominating the first weekend of February’s National Hunt racing calendar, we take a look at all the feature races you can expect to see throughout the course of the month.

    https://www.888sport.com/blog/football-prediction

    There’s even some top class all-weather action taking place in February too, with lots of sports betting opportunities available.

    February 4th 2023 

    Leopardstown

    • The Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle (Grade 1).

    • The Spring Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1)

    • The Goffs Arkle Novice Steeplechase (Grade 1)

    • The Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup (Grade 1)

    • The I.N.H. (C&G) Flat Race (Grade 2)

    Wetherby

    • Towton Novices' Chase (Grade 2)

    Sandown

    • Scilly Isles Novices' Chase (Grade 1)

    February 5th 2023 

    Leopardstown

    • The Novice Steeplechase (Grade 1)

    • The Dublin Steeplechase (Grade 1)

    • The Irish Champion Hurdle (Grade 1)

    • The Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)

    • The Coolmore N.H. Sires ‘Santiago’ Irish EBF Mares I.N.H. Flat Race (Grade 2)

    February 11th 2023

    Newbury

    • Denman Chase (Grade 2)

    • Game Spirit Chase (Grade 2)

    • Betfair Hurdle (Premier Handicap)

    Naas

    • Opera Hat Mares Chase (Listed)

    February 12th 2023

    • Boyne Hurdle (Grade 2)

    • Ten Up Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)

    February 16th 2023

    Clonmel

    • Powerstown Novice Hurdle (Grade 3)

    February 18th 2023

    Ascot

    • Reynoldstown Novices' Chase (Grade 1)

    • Ascot Chase (Grade 1)

    Haydock

    • Rendlesham Hurdle (Grade 2)

    • Grand National Trial Chase (Premier Handicap)

    • Albert Bartlett Prestige Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2)

    Wincanton

    • Kingwell Hurdle

    Gowran

    • Red Mills Chase (Grade 2)

    • Red Mills Trial Hurdle (Grade 3)

    February 19th 2023

    Punchestown

    • Apples Jade Mares Novice Hurdle (Listed)

    • Grand National Trial Handicap Chase

    February 22nd 2023

    Punchestown

    • Quevega Mares Hurdle

    February 23rd 2023

    Thurles

    • Michael Purcell Novices Hurdle (Grade 3)

    February 25th 2023

    Kempton

    • Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2)

    • Pendil Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)

    • Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)

    • Coral Trophy Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap)

    Fairyhouse

    • Bobbyjo Chase Grade 3

    • Winning Fair Juvenile Hurdle Grade 3

    Lingfield

    • Winter Derby Stakes (Group 3)

    • Hever Sprint Stakes (Listed)

    February 26th 2023

    Naas

    • Johnstown Novice Hurdle (Grade 2)

    • Nas Na Riogh Novice Handicap Chase 

    • Newlands Chase (Grade 3)

    February’s Antepost suggestions:

    • Nathaniel Lacy Solicitors Novice Hurdle: Sandor Clegane (E/W @ 13/2)

    • Spring Juvenile Hurdle: Lossiemouth (WIN @ 8/13)

    • Irish Arkle: Banbridge (E/W @ 11/2)

    • Irish Gold Cup: Conflated (E/W @ 8/1)

    • Novice Steeplechase: Flame Bearer (E/W @14/1)

    • Dublin Chase: Blue Lord (WIN @ 8/11 in our live betting)

    • Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle: Facile Vega (WIN @ 2/5)

    • Irish Champion Hurdle: Honeysuckle (WIN @ 5/2)

    • Betfair Hurdle: Teddy Blue (E/W 16/1) & No Ordinary Joe (E/W @ 10/1)


    *Credit for all of the photos in this article belongs to AP Photo*

     

    January 16, 2023

    By Steve Mullington

    Steve Mullington
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    Steven is a sports and horse racing enthusiast and is a member of the Horseracing Writers and Photographers Association (HWPA) in the United Kingdom.

    He is a regular visitor to Paris Longchamp for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe and a lifelong fan of the Aintree Grand National, a subject he writes about 52 weeks of the year. Last year he reached the impressive milestone of attending the last 30 renewals of the Grand National.

    Steven graduated from the University Of Lancaster in 1996 with a B.A (Hons) in Urban Policy & Race Relations (major) with Contemporary Religions & Belief Systems (minor) and still wonders if any of these help him find the winners?

    He writes for a number of websites and online publications and you can sometimes hear him at the weekend discussing racing on a number of local radio stations. 

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    Looking for the biggest horse racing fixtures taking place this month? Well, you're in the right place.

    Here, we've put together a list of the top races to watch in January 2023 - so get these dates in the diary and don't miss out on some of the best racing action around.

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    Without further ado, it's time to take a look at January's biggest horse racing meetings...

    NB: we have included last year's winners for each race. Could we see any repeat results in 2023?


    January 1st 2023

    • (Fairyhouse) Grade 3 John & Chich Fowler Memorial Mares Chase won last year by the Gordon Elliot trained Mount Ida (9/4) and ridden to victory by Davy Russell.

    • (Tramore) Grade 3 Savills Chase won last year by Al Boum Photo at odds of 1/6.

    • (Cheltenham) Grade 2 Dipper Novices' Chase (L’Homme Presse 7/4f), Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle (Stormy Ireland 4/1)

    January 7th 2023

    • (Sandown) Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle (Constitution Hill 2/5), 2022 Veterans' Chase Series Final was won by the popular Aso, who returned at 7/2 for those who placed their horse racing online bets on him.

    January 8th 2023

    • (Naas) Grade 1 Lawlor's Of Naas Novice Hurdle (Ginto 5/4). 

    January 14th 2023

    • (Fairyhouse) Dan & Joan Moore Memorial Handicap Chase (Duvegan 7/2jf)

    • (Kempton) Grade 2 Silviniaco Conti Chase (Mister Fisher 15/8f), Lanzarote Hurdle (Cobblers Dream 10/1).

    • (Warwick) Classic Chase (Eclair Surf 11/1), Grade 2 Hampton Novices’ Chase (Threeunderthrufive 4/7), Grade 2 Leamington Novices’ Hurdle (Gentleman At Arms 14/1).

    January 15th 2023

    • (Punchestown) Grade 3 Kildare Novices’ Chase (Bob Olinger 1/2f), Grade 2 Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle (Dreal Deal 22/1)

    January 21st 2023

    • (Navan) Navan Handicap Hurdle (The Very Man 20/1).

    • (Ascot) Grade 1 Clarence House Chase (Shishkin 5/6), Grade 2 Warfield Hurdle (Molly Ollys Wishes 13/8f), bet365 Handicap Chase (Phoenix Way 7/1)

    • (Haydock) Grade 2 Peter Marsh Chase (Royale Pagaille 5/2f), Grade 2 Champion Hurdle Trial (Tommy’s Oscar 4/7f), Grade 2 Supreme Trial Novices’ Hurdle (Jonbon 2/5f)

    • (Lingfield) Winter Oaks (Lower Street 10/1)

    January 22nd 2023

    • (Thurles) Grade 2 Horse & Jockey Hotel Chase, Grade 2 Coolmore NH Sires EBF Novices’ Chase.

    January 26th 2023

    • (Gowran Park) Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase (Longhouse Poet 9/1), Grade 2 John Mulhern Galmoy Hurdle (Royal Kahala 9/2)

    January 28th 2023

    • (Fairyhouse) Grade 3 Solerina (Mares) Novice Hurdle (Allegorie De Vassy 7/4jf).

    • (Cheltenham) Paddy Power Handicap Chase (Torn And Frayed 5/2 jf), Grade 2 Cotswold Chase (Chantry House 5/6f), Grade 2 Cleeve Hurdle (Paisley Park 5/1), Grade 2 Classic Novices' Hurdle (North Lodge 7/1), JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle (Pied Piper 11/8f), Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase.

    • (Doncaster) Great Yorkshire Chase (Windsor Avenue 40/1), Grade 2 Lightning Novices’ Chase (Third Time Lucki 8/15f), Grade 2 Yorkshire Rose Mares’ Hurdle (Miss Heritage 10/1), Grade 2 River Don Novices’ Hurdle (Mahler Mission 11/2).

    January 29th 2023

    • (Naas) Grade 3 Finlay Ford At Naas Novice Chase (Stattler 11/10f), Grade 3 Limestone Lad Hurdle (Darasso 8/1).


    As you can see for yourself many of these top January races give us plenty of clues as to what the Cheltenham Festival and Grand National betting markets will look like come March and April time.

    January is a very informative month for National Hunt racing fans.


    *Credit for all of the photos in this article belongs to AP Photo*

    January 16, 2023

    By Steve Mullington

    Steve Mullington
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  • Body

    Steven is a sports and horse racing enthusiast and is a member of the Horseracing Writers and Photographers Association (HWPA) in the United Kingdom.

    He is a regular visitor to Paris Longchamp for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe and a lifelong fan of the Aintree Grand National, a subject he writes about 52 weeks of the year. Last year he reached the impressive milestone of attending the last 30 renewals of the Grand National.

    Steven graduated from the University Of Lancaster in 1996 with a B.A (Hons) in Urban Policy & Race Relations (major) with Contemporary Religions & Belief Systems (minor) and still wonders if any of these help him find the winners?

    He writes for a number of websites and online publications and you can sometimes hear him at the weekend discussing racing on a number of local radio stations. 

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    The Mykhaylo Mudryk transfer saga was one of the most craziest moves of all-time. Because the ending was unexpected, but this whole story has been full of twists and turns for months, even years.

    To think that more than a year ago, the director of Brentford, Lee Dykes, already wanted to bring Mykhaylo to the Premier League in a very advanced negotiation with Shakhtar Donetsk but never really concluded.

    Fabrizio Romano articles

    The war in Ukraine changed the scenario because other clubs tried to insert themselves during last summer by trying a surprise deal: Bayer Leverkusen wanted him for €20m, while in the final days of the summer transfer window Everton tried to convince the Shakhtar Donetsk with €30m plus add-ons.

    No way, because the Ukrainian club was already asking more than €50m to sell its star.

    Yet it was precisely in the last days of August that Arsenal came up with the idea of attacking Mykhaylo Mudryk as top target for the future: Mikel Arteta had begun to find out about the player through some friends who followed him closely at Shakhtar, Arsenal however end of August they never made official proposals but preferred to wait.

    And the good news for Shakhtar was a Champions League group played at excellent levels by Mykhaylo: from the Bernabéu to Celtic Park, the Ukrainian star made it clear to all the clubs that he was really ready to make a difference and so the contacts started for a transfer of Mudryk already in the January transfer market, instead of waiting for the summer of 2023.

    Shakhtar had always asked for more than €50m in the summer; but after Mudryk's super Champions League, the club publicly and privately dubbed Mykhaylo a €100m future star.

    No intention of accepting less than this amount, at the cost of waiting for June or July to sell it. Arsenal have tried in every way to approach the requests of the Ukrainian club with three official offers between December and January; the latest came last Thursday when the London club offered a €70m guaranteed fee plus €25m add-ons to seal the deal.

    But Shakhtar Donetsk took their time because they wanted guarantees on a total fee of €100m, add ons included.

    So Chelsea entered the scene with a very quick but effective move: after a meeting in London between Shakhtar director Darijo Srna and Todd Boehly before and after the Chelsea vs Manchester City game at Stamford Bridge, Chelsea decided to wait because they knew that the player's priority was to sign with Arsenal.

    But when they realized Arsenal weren't offering the €100m guaranteed fee wanted by Shakhtar, the Blues burst into the picture with a mission to Donetsk's training camp to meet with Ukrainian officials on Saturday morning.

    The meeting was quick and effective because Chelsea really offered the €100m package with add-ons included; Shakhtar agreed after an in-person meeting with members of the Chelsea board, immediately arranging another meeting between Mykhaylo Mudryk's agents and Chelsea to understand his decision on the club.

    Mykhaylo's dream has always been Arsenal, which is why the Blues immediately wanted to make sure they could change his mind also thanks to a top secret conversation with Graham Potter.

    Arsenal have not panicked in the face of this situation: the club's strategy and vision are the priority, the club will never overpay any player as happened in the past with Vlahovic, Locatelli, Raphinha or Lisandro Martinez.

    They feel they did their best to sign Mudryk with a very important bid to Shakhtar and to the player; but Arsenal don't enter any bid war because the approach is different and the club will maintain sound management for present and future.

    So Mudryk said yes to Chelsea for a contract until 30 June 2030, flight to London already on Saturday evening and medical tests in the morning to be presented at Stamford Bridge before the Crystal Palace game.

    The plan worked. Chelsea have their new star.

    January 15, 2023
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    Fabrizio Romano is an Italian sports journalist. He was born in 1993, he lives in Milan and has over 30 million followers in total on the major social networks.

     

    He collaborates with 888sport, CBS Sports, Sky Sport, The Guardian and has been a transfer market expert since 2011. He will take care of a column dedicated to some "Behind the Scenes" of transfers.

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    Manchester United want to give Erik ten Hag what he needs after his excellent work over the last few months.

    The Dutch manager's hard work has been appreciated by the club, but the financial resources for the January transfer market are limited because the Glazers family has decided not to invest excessive amounts after the summer new signings and the decision to sell the club in the coming months.

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    That's why they looked for an opportunity on the market, even though Cody Gakpo was the priority but Manchester United never made a proposal to PSV Eindhoven because the €50m fee was considered excessive in a market like the one in January.

    The club explored many options, some complicated while others easier but unconvincing for Manchester United.

    The club have involved Erik ten Hag in all decisions because sources say Manchester United have been offered more than 10 forwards after Cristiano Ronaldo's contract ended.

    That was a decisive moment in Manchester United's negotiations; there were so many agents and intermediaries ready to offer players to the club, but the choice was to find a player with different skills than all the others already present in Erik Ten Hag team.

    There was no way to agree with Atlético Madrid for Joao Felix for less than €15m between loan fee, salary and taxes; so the idea was to go for different solution instead of saving money in January.

    That's why Manchester United got in touch with agents of Wout Weghorst, striker of Besiktas; not an easy operation because Weghorst is one of the most important players of the Turkish team, he moved there with the formula of the loan with €10 million buyout clause last summer and Besiktas initially had no intention of letting him leave in January.

    So, Man United decided to proceed with both clubs; first Besiktas, then Burnley and so with the player who immediately said yes to the possibility of working under Erik Ten Hag as he was dreaming of Old Trafford.

    Weghorst immediately reached an agreement with Manchester United on the salary terms of the contract; sources close to Wout guarantee that Wout dreamed of this possibility, he spoke to ten Hag by phone as he wanted a player with his skills as a cheap option for his team.

    But how to manage the agreement between clubs? Manchester United contacted Besiktas and reached a verbal agreement to pay €3m fee to terminate the loan deal of Weghorst with them; Burnley have then approved a loan move until the end of the current season, while there was no issue or problem at all with the player on the salary.

    To have the final green light and unveil Weghorst as new signing, Manchester United will have to wait for Besiktas to find a replacement for the Dutch striker in the following days.

    The priority of the Turkish club is Vincent Aboubakar who could soon leave Al Nassr to allow them to register Cristiano Ronaldo as soon as possible.

    Besitkas immediately informed Manchester United that there will be no signing for Weghorst unless another striker arrives first.

    That's why the timing was longer than expected, but the club's choice was to invest in a center striker with different skills and approved by Erik ten Hag at least until the end of the season.

    Of course, the idea of all the people into Manchester United is to sign a new striker in the summer after missing out on Darwin Nunez last June: this will be one of the priorities to improve the squad in 2023.

    But as a short term option, Weghorst has been approved by the manager... and his dream will be reality soon.


    *Credit for all of the photos in this article belongs to AP Photo*

    January 11, 2023
    Body

    Fabrizio Romano is an Italian sports journalist. He was born in 1993, he lives in Milan and has over 30 million followers in total on the major social networks.

     

    He collaborates with 888sport, CBS Sports, Sky Sport, The Guardian and has been a transfer market expert since 2011. He will take care of a column dedicated to some "Behind the Scenes" of transfers.

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