Novak Djokovic is the most successful man in Australian Open history, and he is once again the comfortable favourite tennis betting in 2023. 

It has been a tempestuous couple of years for Djokovic’s legacy, a period where off-the-court issues have often cast a shadow over his on-court performance. 

The Serbian wrapped up his sixth ATP Finals win at the end of 2022, defeating Casper Ruud in the final.

It concluded a year where he did not compete in either the Australian or US Opens, but won at Wimbledon. He also added further titles in Rome, Astana and Tel Aviv.

Rafael Nadal got the better of Daniil Medvedev to win his second Australian Open title last January.

Both are among the chasing pack heading into the 2023 edition of the tournament, with Medvedev aiming to bounce back from a disappointing end to the year. 

Djokovic is owner of an 8-4 career record against Medvedev, including a win over the Russian in the 2021 Australian Open final.

He is 30-29 head-to-head with Nadal, but he’s 20-7 on hard courts and has twice beaten the Spaniard in Australian Open finals. 

Unstoppable in Melbourne

Only Nadal can better Djokovic’s tally of nine titles at an individual Grand Slam. Backing the Serbian in tennis betting tips has been a pretty safe option for the last decade, and especially so at the first major of the year.

James Anderson, who won three Australian Open titles in the 1920s, is the only men’s player who can better Djokovic’s 91.11% winning percentage at the event.

On hard courts overall, Djokovic has a record 655-121. That’s a winning rate of 84.41%, which again is second all-time behind four-time Grand Slam winner Jean Borotra, who won the final of his major titles in 1931.

Djokovic is the most successful male player on hard courts since the Second World War. 

The 2022 season was disrupted, and far from his strongest, yet Djokovic rightly enters Melbourne as the man to beat.

This sort of track record is almost impossible to overlook, particularly after he cruised to glory at the ATP Finals, dropping a lone set in his five matches.

The decline has to come at some point, though, doesn’t it? 

Djokovic celebrates his 36th birthday in May. He was defeated by Holger Rune in Paris prior to the ATP Finals, and fell to Felix Auger-Aliassime in the Laver Cup in September. 

Even the seemingly ageless sports stars succumb to Father Time. Serena Williams and Roger Federer extended their peaks longer than most, yet both retired in 2021.

Djokovic does not appear to be close to that point, but some players see their performance levels tumble off a cliff edge. 

As yet, we can only go on what we’ve seen. The last sighting of Djokovic was an intimidating prospect for the rest of the tour, dismantling the world’s best at the ATP Finals. 

Main Challengers

For a while, tennis has been waiting for a new star to succeed Djokovic and Nadal. 

Carlos Alcaraz is the leading candidate at the moment, and the Spaniard is the second favourite in Australian Open betting behind Djokovic. Alcaraz overcame Djokovic in a classic at the Madrid Open last year.

At 19, he outplayed Ruud to win his first Grand Slam at the US Open. Ascending to superstardom in the closing months of the calendar year, Alcaraz is the youngest player of all-time to become world number one. 

Injury forced the teenager out of the ATP Finals, but he is healthy heading into the new season and well aware of the new challenges which come with being an established name. 

Alcaraz said, "I feel good finally. I had a month to recover well the ab and right now I feel almost 100 percent. I have been training normally this past week and I'm feeling great.

"Of course having a target on my back from everyone is going to be a little bit different for me this year and I have to be prepared for that. I'm going to try to finish 2023 at the same position as right now. It's going to be a long year but of course I'm going to enjoy."

Part of Djokovic being such a clear favourite is down to the fitness of Alcaraz and Nadal. If both prove they are at the top of their game before and during the tournament, there is a much greater threat to Djokovic. 

Medvedev has been able to beat Djokovic in the past, but he fell short of his usual standards in the last few months of 2022. 

None of Djokovic’s three closest rivals enter 2023 at their strongest point. Of course, that is something which can quickly change, but it plays further into Djokovic’s hands after his ominous end to the calendar year.

Further afield, 21-year-old Jannik Skinner is destined for a breakthrough in 2023 after numerous impressive performances in 2022. Skinner, however, is yet to make it past the last eight of a Grand Slam. 

Rune, including the win over Djokovic, was in fine form over the last few weeks. Like Skinner, he lacks Grand Slam experience, with a lone quarter-final appearance coming at the 2022 French Open.

At 19 years old, though, the Norwegian is not a player to be overlooked and has beaten the world’s best players repeatedly, which bodes well for a deep run down under.

Djokovic’s To Lose?

The 2023 season is an exciting time for men’s tennis. Rune, Skinner and Alcaraz represent a fresh era, perhaps finally ready to topple the Djokovic and Nadal reign.

While the Australian Open could be a real test for Djokovic, one wonders if it is a little too early in their respective careers to take down the Serbian if he can reach the level he showed in the ATP Finals.

He might have sat out the 2022 tournament. He might only sit fifth in the world rankings. Djokovic, though, is still the man to beat heading into the Australian Open. 

It will take something really special, a performance for the ages, for one of the next generation to beat the nine-time champion should be maintain his standards from the season finale.


 

 

December 20, 2022
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Sam is a sports tipster, specialising in the Premier League and Champions League.

He covers most sports, including cricket and Formula One. Sam particularly enjoys those on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean – notably MLB and NBA.

Watching, writing and talking about sports betting takes up most of his time, whether that is for a day out at T20 Finals Day or a long night of basketball.

Having been writing for several years, Sam has been working with 888Sport since 2016, contributing multiple articles per week to the blog.

Sam Cox
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There is a very short list of NBA players who it can reasonably be argued are better than Luka Dončić.

A strong case can be made that the Slovenian is already top three. For a couple of years in a row, preseason basketball betting has made Dončić the MVP favourite.

In just his fifth NBA season, Dončić is established among the league’s elite alongside all-time greats like Nikola Jokić, Steph Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant and LeBron James.

Already, Phoenix and Sacramento passing on Dončić in the draft is cemented as one of the greatest mistakes in league history.

Dončić has been selected to the All-NBA First Team in each of the last three seasons, a feat only matched by Antetokounmpo over that period.

Having built years of experience in Europe, the usual bedding in time in the NBA was minimal. He does not turn 24 until February, an age when many of the game’s best are still finding their feet at the professional level.

Dončić, in contrast, is a lock for All-Star starter honours each season and a perennial All-NBA First Team selection, who has already led his Dallas Mavericks to the Conference Finals. 

Dominant From a Young Age

Very, very few players come into the league and dominate like Dončić has. Tim Duncan was the last player to be selected to the All-NBA First Team in his first or second season.

No other teenager in NBA history has recorded four triple-doubles. Only Michael Jordan and Shaquille O’Neal took fewer games to reach 4,000 points since merger.

If anything, Dončić’s postseason performances have been even more remarkable than his regular season production.

His 42 points in his playoff debut is a record, he’s the youngest player to hit a playoff buzzer-beater, and the first player in league history regardless of age to have 43+ points, 17+ rebounds, and 13+ assists in a playoff game. 

Only four other players (Michael Jordan, LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, Dame Lillard) have dropped 40 in a playoff game and hit a game-winner at the buzzer. 

The list of accolades is extensive. Just look at the company Dončić keeps. These are not just All-Star level players, many are top-15 all-time calibre stars, putting him on a trajectory few have been on. 

Poor Defence & OTT Usage

Defence is still a problem. Teams have, and will continue to, go at Dončić in playoff series. The other overriding concern is more of a franchise problem than a Dončić issue – his usage rate is grotestque. 

Only five times have players completed full seasons with a higher usage than Dončić’s 2022-23 mark.

Including this season (where Joel Embiid and Antetokounmpo also place in the top 10), Dončić has four of the top 20 higher usage seasons ever. 

This playstyle has rarely been effective deep into the postseason, such is the workload it demands.

In the regular season, it enables Dončić to load up on triple-doubles and compete for scoring titles, but it has fairly drawn comparisons to James Harden on the Houston Rockets with the unsustainable level of isolation play.

Dončić is averaging 8.2 isos per game in 2022-23 – only four other players (Embiid, Harden, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Durant) are above five. 

Like with Harden, there is a question about how Dončić operates off-ball. Does he want to hand over ball-handling responsibilities? After all, his usage was still historically high even when Jalen Brunson was on the roster. 

Playing off-ball is one uncertainty with Dončić. How willing is he to cut, screen and take catch-and-shoot threes? Other high-usage MVP candidates have been reluctant to take on such a role even when paired with another star.

The best version of Dončić from a team perspective would see a slightly lower usage with a more diverse offence. In theory, less of a burden offensively should allow Dončić to expend more energy on the defensive end.

He is never going to be Gary Payton, but being more engaged and using his size would make a meaningful difference. 

Fulfilled Potential Requires Mavericks Changes

The current construction of the Dallas Mavericks is perfect for Dončić to put up gaudy numbers. For Dončić to lead a team to a title, it is wildly flawed, and it will also provide a severe test for his durability.

If he is to reach his ceiling alongside the all-time greats, Dončić needs a different roster construction and at least one other elite player.

As Dallas’ title price in NBA odds suggests, this team is a work in progress.

After how the Kristaps Porzingis trade went, however, they are in a period of waiting for that ideal complementary piece to become available (and to have sufficient picks available to trade). 

From Dončić’s perspective, this next move needs to be perfect. Shattering records and piling up regular season accolades is one thing, but it only carries so much weight when it comes to all-time discussions and evaluating a player’s legacy. 

From an individual, 82-game angle, Dončić is at his peak. He is heading towards the Harden tier as a regular season performer, albeit with more significant postseason moments even at this stage of his career. 

To take him a notch or two higher towards the game’s most iconic figures, the Ljubljana native needs a co-star and to develop as an off-ball threat in the halfcourt. 

Winning a title is not make or break for a player’s career by any stretch, yet Dončić has proven he can steamroller through the regular season and deliver in the early rounds of the postseason. 

His standing in the history of the game once he retires the stepback jumper and crosscourt passes will depend on the teams he plays on and how much he is willing to sacrifice individual honours and statistics for the benefit of the collective.

It doesn’t take overly adventurous imagination to envisage a future where Dončić is recognised as a top-10 player in NBA history, which is a remarkable place to be in for a 23-year-old.


 

 

December 20, 2022
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Sam is a sports tipster, specialising in the Premier League and Champions League.

He covers most sports, including cricket and Formula One. Sam particularly enjoys those on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean – notably MLB and NBA.

Watching, writing and talking about sports betting takes up most of his time, whether that is for a day out at T20 Finals Day or a long night of basketball.

Having been writing for several years, Sam has been working with 888Sport since 2016, contributing multiple articles per week to the blog.

Sam Cox
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