Rafael Nadal is one of the greatest tennis players ever. His career hasn’t all been plain sailing, but the Spaniard has fought through injuries and surgery to return to the pinnacle of men’s tennis.
Nadal has secured his place in the top three all-time alongside Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic, which unsurprisingly, makes him a tennis betting favourite at almost every tournament he attends.
Nadal, like mere mortals, isn’t always the same player, however. There are things to look out for that could change whether he’s the man to back, but for an athlete so far ahead of many of his peers, the signs can often be subtle.
Finding value on a massively odds on favourite isn’t easy, though tennis betting offers can help out with that. Here are five things to consider when backing Nadal...
Brave Returners
Brave is the key word here. Nadal’s serve is far from faulty, nor is it enough to undermine his place among the all-time greats.
It is attackable, though. Courageous players will see his serve as their best opportunity of success. Of course, it’s a risky strategy and can go down in flames, but it will be many players’ only chance.
When Nadal’s serve isn’t at its best, these opponents can become a real threat. Be wary of dodgy serving when looking to back Nadal, as it could suggest that an upset is coming up.
Fitness Concerns
At 33 years old, fitness is always going to be a question mark. Nadal has battled back from a torrid period with injuries earlier in the decade, but that’s not all in the past.
The Spaniard has pulled out of several tournaments this year through injury, and bettors should be wary of warning signs during a tournament that could suggest another withdrawal or poor performance is around the corner.
While a fully fit Nadal is a long way ahead of the chasing pack, he’s much more beatable if he’s playing at 60 or 70%.
Will He Be Forced To The Net?
Just like Djokovic, Nadal isn’t the same player if he’s forced away from the baseline. Capable of improvising and producing improbable shots, Nadal is still going to put up a fight for every point, but there’s no question he’s less comfortable when he has to come to the net.
Unfortunately for the rest of the tour, though, this is an area he’s improved throughout his career, which has seen him win some easier points, particularly on the grass.
Drop shots to force Nadal up the court can be a red herring, but it’s well worth giving him a different look to break up his rhythm of those ferocious forehands. It’s a means of taking control of a rally, something every player must do to assert themselves on the match.
Certain players will favour this tactic more than others. When Nadal’s in defensive mode, and settling for long baseline rallies, those players can cause him problems. Net play was a focus of our doubles betting tips – it’s something to ponder for Nadal, too.
Opponent's Stamina
Facing Nadal, unless you somehow manage to blow him away, will likely be a slugfest. Rallies will be long, regardless of the surface.
Matching his fitness levels is crucial for any potential opponent. For instance, in a Grand Slam fortnight, if he’s facing someone who is coming off the back of a five-setter, it's going to hurt their chances.
Well-rested opponents obviously have an advantage, particularly if Nadal is being forced to play matches close together. This is the case for anyone, but it is especially relevant for the Spaniard, who so often finds himself is long backcourt rallies. Fatigue will quickly tell.
There can be value to be found depending on relative periods of rest. Nadal is ruthless, and the odds on a straight sets victory can become very appealing if he’s facing a tiring opponent. Once he’s ahead, it’s very hard to wrestle back into the match.
King Of Clay
Quite simply, if it’s on a clay court, all the other factors are lessened. Nadal on clay is the most dominant any tennis player has been on a surface. Roland Garros is a second home for the legendary Spaniard, and he boasts a whole catalogue of clay-court records.
There are greater questions to be asked on hard or grass courts, but if it’s clay, there needs to be a pretty substantial reason not to back a Nadal win – usually a comfortable one, at that.
Through his pre-injury career and what he’s achieved after, Nadal has dispatched clay court specialists and all-time greats on the clay. While it’s easier to question backing him elsewhere, the clay courts are Nadal’s.
It shouldn’t make it a guarantee that Nadal is the player to back, but it’s about as close as it can get at the moment. Barring injury or some shockingly long odds for Djokovic in a clay-court clash, Nadal is the man to back.
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*Credit for the main photo belongs to Adam Hunger / AP Photo*
